patrick7032 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Crazy cold builds into Montana/ND... The first plunge south still on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 This is what I think will happen as the arctic air approaches.. That is where the highest probability stands of seeing a snow storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 This is what I think will happen as the arctic air approaches.. That is where the highest probability stands of seeing a snow storm.... Not with that SE ridge still in place like it is. I'm not really seeing anything that will move it/weaken it enough to send this surge all the way in. GFS/CMC 200+ hour solutions seem very very suspect. Ice/mix is more likely than a snowstorm in this type of setup anyways (especially with a positive tilt longwave over the western US). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Record here for Nov 26th is -9F(1977)...GFS shows 1F ... Winter is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Not with that SE ridge still in place like it is. I'm not really seeing anything that will move it/weaken it enough to send this surge all the way in. GFS/CMC 200+ hour solutions seem very very suspect. Ice/mix is more likely than a snowstorm in this type of setup anyways (especially with a positive tilt longwave over the western US). agree.....in fact the 00z op euro may have fired the first salvo at all this eastern monster trough talk day 8 and beyond. I wouldn't trust anything beyond day 5 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Craig from Omaha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 As usual, a nice dico by Izzi... HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES SUBSTANTIALLY AS POTENTIAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE LOOMS. TO START THE WEEK EXPECT FRONT TO WAVER AROUND THE REGION...PROBABLY HANGING OUT TO OUR SOUTH MORE THAN OUR NORTH...AS IMPULSES EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH RESULTING IN A POTENTIALLY WET UNSETTLED PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING FOR DAYS THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE RESTING LIKE A HIBERNATING BEAR JUST TO OUR NORTH. PREVIOUSLY MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE HIBERNATING BEAR WOULD BE POKED/AGITATED AND SURGE SOUTH IN TIME FOR THANKSGIVING...HOWEVER THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COMPLETELY REVERSED COURSE AND ALLOWS SLEEPING BEARS (AKA THE ARCTIC AIR) TO LIE AND KEEPS TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS ARE OFTEN VERY FICKLE WHEN DEALING WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGES THIS FAR OUT...SO PROBABLY A BIT SOON TO BREAK OUT THE BEAR REPELLENT BUT NOT A BAD IDEA TO HAVE SOME IN STOCK BECAUSE ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS ARRIVE. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 agree.....in fact the 00z op euro may have fired the first salvo at all this eastern monster trough talk day 8 and beyond. I wouldn't trust anything beyond day 5 at this point. I'm sure that the cold will come in.... eventually. It just doesn't seem likely as long as we have a Cen/EPAC ridge and western trough. We've seen this blast advertised for a long time now, and it has been continuously pushed back day after day. Heck, I remember at the beginning of the month the GFS signaling that it would be here around now. Hasn't happened, and probably won't until the very end of the month. Having said that, there IS a system that has been showing up around day 7/8 pretty consistently, and the models ride that up the sharp baroclinic boundary that sets up in the next few days, and this could be a watcher (probably not for you though, Buckeye =P ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I'm sure that the cold will come in.... eventually. It just doesn't seem likely as long as we have a Cen/EPAC ridge and western trough. We've seen this blast advertised for a long time now, and it has been continuously pushed back day after day. Heck, I remember at the beginning of the month the GFS signaling that it would be here around now. Hasn't happened, and probably won't until the very end of the month. Having said that, there IS a system that has been showing up around day 7/8 pretty consistently, and the models ride that up the sharp baroclinic boundary that sets up in the next few days, and this could be a watcher (probably not for you though, Buckeye =P ) BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 a shift east implies moderation.....i'm sure, relative to average we'll get a late november cold spell....but talk of bitter cold that will cause november to be the coldest since '89 is silly...heck, not even jb is making that kind of claim lol. A little bit of me is rooting for the early season cold not to come because that would give more credence to the idea that winter may be living up to a typical nina and it's toast after december. i can't recall the last time january was the sweet month in winter around here. it's either december and done, or holds off til feb and march. January 2009 was the best month of that winter. Had an arctic outbreak, a super clipper and a couple of other storms. 20" for the month and almost 6 degrees below normal. And January last winter wasn't that bad. We had an awesome first 10 days and it got cold the last week, but yeah, nothing compares to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 January 2009 was the best month of that winter. Had an arctic outbreak, a super clipper and a couple of other storms. 20" for the month and almost 6 degrees below normal. And January last winter wasn't that bad. We had an awesome first 10 days and it got cold the last week, but yeah, nothing compares to February. see what happens when you get old....even your short term memory starts failing...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 see what happens when you get old....even your short term memory starts failing...lol Well, to be fair, 2009 was an exception lately. Before that, January had not been our best winter month since 2004, and before that, 2002 with under 5", lol. Honestly, though, I think it's been since the early 90's and before when January was the predominant winter month. Since then, it's been February or December. Here are the last 30 years: 1980-81: December 1981-82: January 1982-83: January 1983-84: January 1984-85: January 1985-86: December 1986-87: March 1987-88: January 1988-89: February 1989-90: December 1990-91: February 1991-92: January 1992-93: February 1993-94: January 1994-95: February 1995-96: January 1996-97: No good months, lol 1997-98: Same 1998-99: January 1999-2000: January 2000-01: December 2001-02: January 2002-03: February 2003-04: January 2004-05: Harder to say, since it was so split up, but our best storm was in December. 2005-06: December 2006-07: February 2007-08: March 2008-09: January 2009-10: February January was the best month: 1980s: 5 times 1990s: 5 times 2000s: 3 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Big dump of Arctic air is on track, though latest runs have trended a bit west with the initial push. It now looks likely that the PNW/Northern Rockies will see the brunt of it 11/20-23, and then the Dakotas/MN get a secondary push 11/23-11/26. Still looks like a major outbreak for the western half of the northern tier, with the Upper Midwest seeing a slightly modified version. Northern Montana should see some absolutely ridiculous anomalies for the 11/20 -11/27 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 BOOM! It's been doing that in some form for almost 2 weeks now. Show me the money. The only reason it's doing that on this particular run is because of that PV phasing solution. SE ridge in strong Nina years is a formidable opponent, especially early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 a shift east implies moderation.....i'm sure, relative to average we'll get a late november cold spell....but talk of bitter cold that will cause november to be the coldest since '89 is silly...heck, not even jb is making that kind of claim lol. A little bit of me is rooting for the early season cold not to come because that would give more credence to the idea that winter may be living up to a typical nina and it's toast after december. i can't recall the last time january was the sweet month in winter around here. it's either december and done, or holds off til feb and march. oops....guess what he brought up in todays column.....coldest end to NOV since, '02, '96, and possibly '89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Watch last nights Euro torch run be right in the end. Hopefully it was just a lame duck run but nothing would surprise me anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It's been doing that in some form for almost 2 weeks now. Show me the money. The only reason it's doing that on this particular run is because of that PV phasing solution. SE ridge in strong Nina years is a formidable opponent, especially early on. Even if it wasn't a Nina year you are right, we have seen this many times and it end up being a lakes cutter 1000 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 12z Euro shows -24C entering Montana in 5-6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier4Caster Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Oh, it's coming to Montana no doubt about it...I would imagine that we will have a solid stretch of 4 or 5 days with temps dipping below zero across much of the state, and definitely here in Great Falls. We were lucky for it to have held off for so long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 Oh, it's coming to Montana no doubt about it...I would imagine that we will have a solid stretch of 4 or 5 days with temps dipping below zero across much of the state, and definitely here in Great Falls. We were lucky for it to have held off for so long... It actually has the potential to be the most impressive November Arctic outbreak for Montana in quite awhile. The Oct 10-Nov 10 pattern will be a distant memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z Euro shows -24C entering Montana in 5-6 days. 12Z day 6 GEM shows -28 in Montana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z Euro shows -24C entering Montana in 5-6 days. 12Z day 6 GEM shows -28 in Montana I like the temperature gradation on those maps. Where do you get these from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I like the temperature gradation on those maps. Where do you get these from? Yeah those are some nice GGEM maps much better than Environment Canada's page or PSU's E-wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I like the temperature gradation on those maps. Where do you get these from? i make my own maps using gempak...hoping to have my model site up by thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah those are some nice GGEM maps much better than Environment Canada's page or PSU's E-wall thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 i make my own maps using gempak...hoping to have my model site up by thanksgiving. Nice! Let me know when you get it up. Do you know where Tacoman got his plot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Oh, it's coming to Montana no doubt about it...I would imagine that we will have a solid stretch of 4 or 5 days with temps dipping below zero across much of the state, and definitely here in Great Falls. We were lucky for it to have held off for so long... Hoosier where's the redtag? you trying to stay incognito over in montana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Nice! Let me know when you get it up. Do you know where Tacoman got his plot? i'm guessing from this site... raleighwxmodels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 GFS shows -26F in Great Falls.. Nice! http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KGTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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