tacoman25 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Very cold cross polar flow into Canada has begun, and all global models now agreeing on a significant Arctic intrusion into the northern tier of the U.S., starting in Montana this weekend and then moving east into the Dakotas and Minnesota over the following days. Good potential for modified Arctic cold to move south/east from there. Sub -20C 850 temps over portions of MT/ND/MN possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 The forecast Arctic Oscillation would have us at the top of the roller-coaster, starting the free fall this weekend. Weeeeeeeee... Definitely lends some credibility to the forecast cold from the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 Brutally cold air in MT in a week per the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I am impressed by the cold air at 6+ days in the models. I hope there's no inclement weather for my flight for Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Brutally cold air in MT in a week per the 12z GFS. 12Z GGEM has it also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 12Z GGEM has it also... 12z Euro ain't backing off either. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Forecast for today for Cut Bank, Montana Snow. High near 25. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 25 and 31 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tonight: A 50 percent chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -7. North northwest wind between 6 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 Forecast for today for Cut Bank, Montana That's child's play compared to the sub-zero temps they'll be seeing next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 12z Euro ain't backing off either. Wow. and for kicks, the good ole JMA...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yeah it looks like it's going to turn much colder. The month's positive anomalies are going to take a huge hit but it will probably be too much to overcome in a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 what are the chances it moves into our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yeah it looks like it's going to turn much colder. The month's positive anomalies are going to take a huge hit but it will probably be too much to overcome in a lot of areas. It will be tough, but several days with -15 to -25 anomalies (which the Northern Rockies/northern Plains may see) can make a huge difference fast. Regardless, looks like it will be one of the more impressive November Arctic outbreaks in recent memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 doesn't bode well for cold lovers in the east. Our cold doesn't come from southwest canada on a positively tilted trough back into the sw US on sw flow. NW and N.Central Plains is the place for winter into the foreseeable future. Give me a true arctic high pressure sliding down into the dakotas with a storm forming at the base of a negatively tilted trough coming out of the Mississippi Valley.....now that's how we get cooooooold. I think the fun, in the east will be potential overrunning north of I-80 into the lakes and new england after t-day. The baroclinic zone sets up much further north than what models show.....we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 doesn't bode well for cold lovers in the east. Our cold doesn't come from southwest canada on a positively tilted trough back into the sw US on sw flow. NW and N.Central Plains is the place for winter into the foreseeable future. Give me a true arctic high pressure sliding down into the dakotas with a storm forming at the base of a negatively tilted trough coming out of the Mississippi Valley.....now that's how we get cooooooold. I think the fun, in the east will be potential overrunning north of I-80 into the lakes and new england after t-day. The baroclinic zone sets up much further north than what models show.....we shall see. The Great Lakes and New England probably won't see a true Arctic blast, but it looks pretty likely that the last week of the month will be pretty cold as things slowly shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 The Great Lakes and New England probably won't see a true Arctic blast, but it looks pretty likely that the last week of the month will be pretty cold as things slowly shift east. a shift east implies moderation.....i'm sure, relative to average we'll get a late november cold spell....but talk of bitter cold that will cause november to be the coldest since '89 is silly...heck, not even jb is making that kind of claim lol. A little bit of me is rooting for the early season cold not to come because that would give more credence to the idea that winter may be living up to a typical nina and it's toast after december. i can't recall the last time january was the sweet month in winter around here. it's either december and done, or holds off til feb and march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 a shift east implies moderation.....i'm sure, relative to average we'll get a late november cold spell....but talk of bitter cold that will cause november to be the coldest since '89 is silly...heck, not even jb is making that kind of claim lol. A little bit of me is rooting for the early season cold not to come because that would give more credence to the idea that winter may be living up to a typical nina and it's toast after december. i can't recall the last time january was the sweet month in winter around here. it's either december and done, or holds off til feb and march. Yeah, definitely a moderation from the bitter cold the Plains will see. Wasn't Jan 2009 pretty sweet in your area? Cold at least, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 HPC forecast maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 looks like great potential for ice in my area if a few things come together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 HPC forecast maps MQT gets 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 looks like great potential for ice in my area if a few things come together Where are you from, Frivolousz21? You can find a way to set this in Your Options >> Profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Where are you from, Frivolousz21? You can find a way to set this in Your Options >> Profile. He is from the STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 He is from the STL. By the way, where are you from, Guru of Reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 By the way, where are you from, Guru of Reason? St. Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 By the way, where are you from, Guru of Reason? lol my neighbor goes to school in fort collins. always asking me the weather for that area. will be interesting to how good a snow pack we can build up in canada for when/if this big cold comes on down. It seems as of the the GFS has been really cold in the 8-10 day range but hasn't verified yet...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 18z GFS really unleashed the beast of the Arctic. It's having trouble resolving what happens in the western US with the trough and energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 St. Louis I was madscientist on EUSWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yes it does, about a week of very cold for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 18z GFS really unleashed the beast of the Arctic. It's having trouble resolving what happens in the western US with the trough and energy. doesnt drive it south and east of the Miss river valley til after 240hr. I'd be very cautious about trusting any gfs arctic attack aimed at the east beyond day 10 That's pretty much default gfs model guidance in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 lol my neighbor goes to school in fort collins. always asking me the weather for that area. will be interesting to how good a snow pack we can build up in canada for when/if this big cold comes on down. It seems as of the the GFS has been really cold in the 8-10 day range but hasn't verified yet...we'll see. Oh, it's coming. All global models show it reaching the northern Plains in the 3-5 day range (very cold temps are already moving into the Yukon/Northwest Territories). From there, it's just a matter of how much/how far it drops south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 18z GFS really unleashed the beast of the Arctic. It's having trouble resolving what happens in the western US with the trough and energy. Crazy cold builds into Montana/ND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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