Global Average Temperature 2024

[bdgwx]

UAH TLT temperature is stubbornly resisting the post El Nino drop.

Here are some trends of interest.

1st half: +0.14 C.decade-1
2nd half: +0.23 C.decade-1

Last 10 years: +0.41 C.decade-1
Last 15 years: +0.39 C.decade-1
Last 20 years: +0.30 C.decade-1
Last 25 years: +0.23 C.decade-1
Last 30 years: +0.17 C.decade-1

The acceleration is now at +0.03 C.decade-2.

[TheClimateChanger]

52 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

UAH TLT temperature is stubbornly resisting the post El Nino drop.

Here are some trends of interest.

1st half: +0.14 C.decade-1
2nd half: +0.23 C.decade-1

Last 10 years: +0.41 C.decade-1
Last 15 years: +0.39 C.decade-1
Last 20 years: +0.30 C.decade-1
Last 25 years: +0.23 C.decade-1
Last 30 years: +0.17 C.decade-1

The acceleration is now at +0.03 C.decade-2.

Really makes you wonder if the conventional wisdom that we'll see a post-El Nino drop or mean reversion is simply wrong. I've been warning of this for decades now. We think of climate change as this linear process, but the geological record are replete with examples of dramatic climate changes occurring over very short timeframes. Also, there's those "frigid" 1990s and early 2000s again. As someone old enough to remember how this was supposedly a "warm cyclical" period, simply surreal. The 1990s now look colder than the 1880s did in 1990. 

[bluewave]

Still holding on at or above the 1.5C level.

 

 

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, bdgwx said:

UAH TLT temperature is stubbornly resisting the post El Nino drop.

Here are some trends of interest.

1st half: +0.14 C.decade-1
2nd half: +0.23 C.decade-1

Last 10 years: +0.41 C.decade-1
Last 15 years: +0.39 C.decade-1
Last 20 years: +0.30 C.decade-1
Last 25 years: +0.23 C.decade-1
Last 30 years: +0.17 C.decade-1

The acceleration is now at +0.03 C.decade-2.

Below is a comparison of the progression of this nino vs 1997/98 and 2015/16 in UAH6. The tail end of this nino is becoming almost as unusually warm as the beginning, particularly in UAH, which unlike ERA, has September 2024 warmer than 2023, 0.95 vs 0.90.

[TheClimateChanger]

For those curious about the impact of AGW. I know there's been some back & forth on this. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to see an anthropogenic impact in this record-breaking water vapor transport.

 

[bluewave]

 

 

[chubbs]

CERES net radiation updated through July. Trying to find the minima for this enso cycle as nino-related warmth is radiated away. The good news is a big drop from the pre-nino peak.  The bad news is a minima that doesn't dip quite as low as other recent minima.

[bluewave]

The chart below really shows how there is something else going on with the current record global temperature jump compared to past El Niño years.

 

 

[chubbs]

CERES solar radiation at top of atmosphere through July. A little to early to call the peak as post July months have been active. In any case, solar is a tailwind for global temps this this cycle.

[chubbs]

A recent interview with Gavin Schmidt on the current global temperature spike. Good questions but experts don't have the answers.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/gavin-schmidt-interview

[Typhoon Tip]

"At this point, though, Schmidt says, none of these developments — or even a combination of all of them — seems sufficient to explain the heat. This, in turn, raises several other possibilities. The recent temperature run-up could be the result of some development that’s yet to be identified. Or it could mean the climate system is more unpredictable than was thought. Alternatively, it could indicate that something is missing from climate models, or that amplifying feedbacks are kicking in sooner than the models had predicted. .."

again, the 'reason' they are missing is synergy. these philosophers keep trying to find it in some kind of polynomial summation, if not a silver bullet.  they're unlikely to find it there

it's going to be found in the synergistic realm - which cannot be defined in those linear contributors.  it only exists when the linear variables are working together in harmonic feed backs.  just as any dictionary would define, it's an interaction or cooperating parts that give rise to a whole that is greater than the simpler sum of its parts.   sorry folks, but when you deal in dynamics, 2+2 really = 5    they can't just combine variables.

i don't believe that temperature surge could be derived any other way - it's a 'smoking gun'  ( puns intended to annoy ... ) for a synergism - and ...  a warning.  

probably above all, why humanity, despite all conceits ... is dumb fucked in trouble for tinkering like they are a Kardashev 1 civilization.  as an aside, when they can't even stop famine, disease, and their own creative inequality; how are they going to be responsible for their own innovation?

enter Fermian Paradox explanation -

 

[chubbs]

13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

"At this point, though, Schmidt says, none of these developments — or even a combination of all of them — seems sufficient to explain the heat. This, in turn, raises several other possibilities. The recent temperature run-up could be the result of some development that’s yet to be identified. Or it could mean the climate system is more unpredictable than was thought. Alternatively, it could indicate that something is missing from climate models, or that amplifying feedbacks are kicking in sooner than the models had predicted. .."

again, the 'reason' they are missing is synergy. these philosophers keep trying to find it in some kind of polynomial summation, if not a silver bullet.  they're unlikely to find it there

it's going to be found in the synergistic realm - which cannot be defined in those linear contributors.  it only exists when the linear variables are working together in harmonic feed backs.  just as any dictionary would define, it's an interaction or cooperating parts that give rise to a whole that is greater than the simpler sum of its parts.   sorry folks, but when you deal in dynamics, 2+2 really = 5    they can't just combine variables.

i don't believe that temperature surge could be derived any other way - it's a 'smoking gun'  ( puns intended to annoy ... ) for a synergism - and ...  a warning.  

probably above all, why humanity, despite all conceits ... is dumb fucked in trouble for tinkering like they are a Kardashev 1 civilization.  as an aside, when they can't even stop famine, disease, and their own creative inequality; how are they going to be responsible for their own innovation?

enter Fermian Paradox explanation -

 

I am keeping an open mind. I suspect the main problem is aerosols. We are doing a better job of cleaning up air pollution than anticipated (mainly in China). Note that this is a relatively benign view. Since the aerosols are going to be reduced at some point anyway with reduced fossil fuel burning.  Synergy or some other unanticipated or stronger feedback would be much more problematic in the long term.