bdgwx Posted October 2 Author Share Posted October 2 UAH TLT temperature is stubbornly resisting the post El Nino drop. Here are some trends of interest. 1st half: +0.14 C.decade-1 2nd half: +0.23 C.decade-1 Last 10 years: +0.41 C.decade-1 Last 15 years: +0.39 C.decade-1 Last 20 years: +0.30 C.decade-1 Last 25 years: +0.23 C.decade-1 Last 30 years: +0.17 C.decade-1 The acceleration is now at +0.03 C.decade-2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 52 minutes ago, bdgwx said: UAH TLT temperature is stubbornly resisting the post El Nino drop. Here are some trends of interest. 1st half: +0.14 C.decade-1 2nd half: +0.23 C.decade-1 Last 10 years: +0.41 C.decade-1 Last 15 years: +0.39 C.decade-1 Last 20 years: +0.30 C.decade-1 Last 25 years: +0.23 C.decade-1 Last 30 years: +0.17 C.decade-1 The acceleration is now at +0.03 C.decade-2. Really makes you wonder if the conventional wisdom that we'll see a post-El Nino drop or mean reversion is simply wrong. I've been warning of this for decades now. We think of climate change as this linear process, but the geological record are replete with examples of dramatic climate changes occurring over very short timeframes. Also, there's those "frigid" 1990s and early 2000s again. As someone old enough to remember how this was supposedly a "warm cyclical" period, simply surreal. The 1990s now look colder than the 1880s did in 1990. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 Still holding on at or above the 1.5C level. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 20 hours ago, bdgwx said: UAH TLT temperature is stubbornly resisting the post El Nino drop. Here are some trends of interest. 1st half: +0.14 C.decade-1 2nd half: +0.23 C.decade-1 Last 10 years: +0.41 C.decade-1 Last 15 years: +0.39 C.decade-1 Last 20 years: +0.30 C.decade-1 Last 25 years: +0.23 C.decade-1 Last 30 years: +0.17 C.decade-1 The acceleration is now at +0.03 C.decade-2. Below is a comparison of the progression of this nino vs 1997/98 and 2015/16 in UAH6. The tail end of this nino is becoming almost as unusually warm as the beginning, particularly in UAH, which unlike ERA, has September 2024 warmer than 2023, 0.95 vs 0.90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 3 Share Posted October 3 For those curious about the impact of AGW. I know there's been some back & forth on this. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to see an anthropogenic impact in this record-breaking water vapor transport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 CERES net radiation updated through July. Trying to find the minima for this enso cycle as nino-related warmth is radiated away. The good news is a big drop from the pre-nino peak. The bad news is a minima that doesn't dip quite as low as other recent minima. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The chart below really shows how there is something else going on with the current record global temperature jump compared to past El Niño years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 CERES solar radiation at top of atmosphere through July. A little to early to call the peak as post July months have been active. In any case, solar is a tailwind for global temps this this cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 A recent interview with Gavin Schmidt on the current global temperature spike. Good questions but experts don't have the answers. https://e360.yale.edu/features/gavin-schmidt-interview 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 12 Share Posted October 12 "At this point, though, Schmidt says, none of these developments — or even a combination of all of them — seems sufficient to explain the heat. This, in turn, raises several other possibilities. The recent temperature run-up could be the result of some development that’s yet to be identified. Or it could mean the climate system is more unpredictable than was thought. Alternatively, it could indicate that something is missing from climate models, or that amplifying feedbacks are kicking in sooner than the models had predicted. .." again, the 'reason' they are missing is synergy. these philosophers keep trying to find it in some kind of polynomial summation, if not a silver bullet. they're unlikely to find it there it's going to be found in the synergistic realm - which cannot be defined in those linear contributors. it only exists when the linear variables are working together in harmonic feed backs. just as any dictionary would define, it's an interaction or cooperating parts that give rise to a whole that is greater than the simpler sum of its parts. sorry folks, but when you deal in dynamics, 2+2 really = 5 they can't just combine variables. i don't believe that temperature surge could be derived any other way - it's a 'smoking gun' ( puns intended to annoy ... ) for a synergism - and ... a warning. probably above all, why humanity, despite all conceits ... is dumb fucked in trouble for tinkering like they are a Kardashev 1 civilization. as an aside, when they can't even stop famine, disease, and their own creative inequality; how are they going to be responsible for their own innovation? enter Fermian Paradox explanation - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 13 Share Posted October 13 13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: "At this point, though, Schmidt says, none of these developments — or even a combination of all of them — seems sufficient to explain the heat. This, in turn, raises several other possibilities. The recent temperature run-up could be the result of some development that’s yet to be identified. Or it could mean the climate system is more unpredictable than was thought. Alternatively, it could indicate that something is missing from climate models, or that amplifying feedbacks are kicking in sooner than the models had predicted. .." again, the 'reason' they are missing is synergy. these philosophers keep trying to find it in some kind of polynomial summation, if not a silver bullet. they're unlikely to find it there it's going to be found in the synergistic realm - which cannot be defined in those linear contributors. it only exists when the linear variables are working together in harmonic feed backs. just as any dictionary would define, it's an interaction or cooperating parts that give rise to a whole that is greater than the simpler sum of its parts. sorry folks, but when you deal in dynamics, 2+2 really = 5 they can't just combine variables. i don't believe that temperature surge could be derived any other way - it's a 'smoking gun' ( puns intended to annoy ... ) for a synergism - and ... a warning. probably above all, why humanity, despite all conceits ... is dumb fucked in trouble for tinkering like they are a Kardashev 1 civilization. as an aside, when they can't even stop famine, disease, and their own creative inequality; how are they going to be responsible for their own innovation? enter Fermian Paradox explanation - I am keeping an open mind. I suspect the main problem is aerosols. We are doing a better job of cleaning up air pollution than anticipated (mainly in China). Note that this is a relatively benign view. Since the aerosols are going to be reduced at some point anyway with reduced fossil fuel burning. Synergy or some other unanticipated or stronger feedback would be much more problematic in the long term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 The warming this fall is even exceeding Hansen’s predictions. So this may be a signal that this record warming is going beyond just aerosol reductions like Schmidt recently mentioned. It will be interesting to see how long the global temperatures hold in above the +1.5.https://mailchi.mp/caa/the-world-will-cool-off-a-bit-and-other-good-news The relatively “cooler” period that should be ushered in by September this year, i.e., the period in which global temperature remains lower than its present +1.6°C peak, may last a few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The warming this fall is even exceeding Hansen’s predictions. So this may be a signal that this record warming is going beyond just aerosol reductions like Schmidt recently mentioned. It will be interesting to see how long the global temperatures hold in above the +1.5.https://mailchi.mp/caa/the-world-will-cool-off-a-bit-and-other-good-news The relatively “cooler” period that should be ushered in by September this year, i.e., the period in which global temperature remains lower than its present +1.6°C peak, may last a few years. op ed, the globe was likely incorrectly prognosticated all along. observational bias ( however well-intended and objective or not, not withstanding ) was not challenged soon enough, when ongoing validation of the sciences related to cc, inherited from the earlier/more primitive predictions back in the 1990s through the aughts of 2000, was probably too primitive. challenging the predictions was less likely to really occur, if not unknowable. but .. there may have been some clues. honestly, consider this: the behavior of climate change impacts being observed earlier, and in some cases much earlier than anticipated. that began about 15 or 20 years ago, really. and probably of greater importance within this context, a repeating behavior. it wasn't just like 1 or 2 consequences having beat out the modeled timing on things. a spectrum of 'faster than was predicted' observations have been occurring. this thing that just happened in 2023 ? in principle, it completely fits that leitmotif - one that i feel pretty strongly is being considered like a deer in the headlights syndrome. otherwise, someone with a imagination and a pragmatic toe hold on the objective reality of what is actually taking place ... might have wondered when the primary metric - actual air temperature - would do something similar. hindsight is 20/20 so its difficult.. i get that. as to why, complex systems in nature ... it seems some sort of philosopher, perhaps one illuminated thru a mathematical lens could propose a law of unintended productivity, that has both a negative and positive sign. heh, there's probably already something like this - hard to imagine that between the first proto-hominid picking up a burning stick, to Archimedes, to quantum computing cores at the other, this has not occurred. it's a matter of simpler research but regardless, imagine given enough polynomial functions contributing to a system ... there will always be at least some quotient of gain(loss) that could not have been predicted. i'm sort of wearing my science fiction writing in this paragraph at that statement, but it seems too plausible... anyway, i believe as time goes by, what we were really seeing all along was a suppression of a global temperature rise that was going to be incorrectly forecast in the absence of a negative synergistic factoring. like all fractals ... that factor eventually just terminated in time. the metaphor of having been spring loaded is cliche that is apropos. and the logical conclusion if something like all that is true ... the world ain't going back - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The warming this fall is even exceeding Hansen’s predictions. So this may be a signal that this record warming is going beyond just aerosol reductions like Schmidt recently mentioned. It will be interesting to see how long the global temperatures hold in above the +1.5.https://mailchi.mp/caa/the-world-will-cool-off-a-bit-and-other-good-news The relatively “cooler” period that should be ushered in by September this year, i.e., the period in which global temperature remains lower than its present +1.6°C peak, may last a few years. Yes the 06z forecast for global temps over the next week is warm, hasn't changed much recently either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 Recently updated ocean heat content data shows cooling in the last 6 months through June. This is consistent with the enso cycle and rise in global temperatures, as more heat is radiated from a warmer atmosphere. Good news, perhaps a sign that the recent string of warm months will moderate. We'll see, the data is noisy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22 Share Posted October 22 2 hours ago, chubbs said: Recently updated ocean heat content data shows cooling in the last 6 months through June. This is consistent with the enso cycle and rise in global temperatures, as more heat is radiated from a warmer atmosphere. Good news, perhaps a sign that the recent string of warm months will moderate. We'll see, the data is noisy. mm i'd just stick to the trend line on that one. having an ending downward blip is not 'bad' news, no. but it's also well within the average spread of that 'noise' as you say - to me it is not 'good' either. if that graph is our only insight, not sure if that implicates much. i would also add ... 'moderating' isn't good enough. we need something like a downward correction, back to the previous dynamics, one that shows the slow moving apocalypse is actually 'slow' ... or as slow as originally scienced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: mm i'd just stick to the trend line on that one. having an ending downward blip is not 'bad' news, no. but it's also well within the average spread of that 'noise' as you say - to me it is not 'good' either. if that graph is our only insight, not sure if that implicates much. i would also add ... 'moderating' isn't good enough. we need something like a downward correction, back to the previous dynamics, one that shows the slow moving apocalypse is actually 'slow' ... or as slow as originally scienced. I hear you, guess I should have added a "relatively" in front of the good. To add more context, the relatively good news is that NOAA version of ocean heat content is not accelerating. Last year, CERES satellite data showed that the earth was taking on heat at an increasing rate. That heat ends up mainly in the ocean and should result in an acceleration in ocean heat content. The recent satellite data is also relatively good news per this recent chart from Gavin Schmidt (data through July). There is a decade over decade increase, but hard to make a case for short-term acceleration, as some were doing last year. As I stated above I am keeping an open mind on the past couple of years. We are going to need more pieces to put this puzzle together. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 1 Share Posted November 1 The chart below runs through Oct 30 and the last data point for 2024 is close to the October monthly avg. October will be a very warm month globally. Not that far from last year despite the transition to nina conditions and around 0.45C warmer than 2016. The gap between 2024 and 2016 has been steadily widening since early in the year. Both the beginning and end of this nino cycle are warmer than expected. However, this October is not quite as gobsmacking as last September which ran roughly 0.6C warmer than 2015. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 UAH in at +0.73C for October 2024. Dr. Spencer also announced a new version 6.1, which truncates data from the NOAA-19 satellite starting in 2021. This imparted a small chilling effect to recent data, which he says brought the dataset more in line with RSS and NOAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 fwiw - https://phys.org/news/2024-11-virtually-hottest-year-eu.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 This abstract for Dec AGU meeting has the best explanation I have seen for the unusual warmth since last summer. Per bar chart on right below about half of this nino's heat (atmosphere, AHC, and 0-100m ocean) came from the 100-300m layer in the ocean and half from the earth's energy imbalance. https://agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1553238 Global and Regional Drivers for Exceptional Climate Extremes in 2023-2024: Beyond the New Normal Plain-language Summary In this study, we examined the 2023-24 global heating event, exploring whether it was exceptional in the context of global warming. We developed the Abnormal record-Breaking test (AB-test) to assess if global surface air and sea surface temperatures, along with atmospheric and upper ocean heat content, were exceptionally high. The results indicated these metrics were at record-breaking levels from June 2023 to June 2024. The significant rise in heat content was attributed to a strong El Niño event and an unprecedented Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI), which contributed to the extraordinary nature of this heating period. The EEI, in particular, was identified as a key factor making this event special. The study also highlighted regional factors, such as reduced cloud cover and unique atmospheric circulation patterns, that contributed to warming in specific areas like the southeastern tropical Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. These findings emphasize the combined influence of a strong El Niño and an unprecedented EEI, along with regional contributors, in driving the exceptional 2023-24 global heating event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 2 hours ago, chubbs said: This abstract for Dec AGU meeting has the best explanation I have seen for the unusual warmth since last summer. Per bar chart on right below about half of this nino's heat (atmosphere, AHC, and 0-100m ocean) came from the 100-300m layer in the ocean and half from the earth's energy imbalance. I guess the million dollar question is how much longer the this 2023-2024 warming rate lasts which is probably beyond the scope of the study. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 1 hour ago, bluewave said: I guess the million dollar question is how much longer the this accelerated warming rate lasts which is probably beyond the scope of the study. Think we've seen enough to expect the same or bigger warming impact from this nino as 2015/16, i.e., roughly 0.3C warming. The two ninos combined have moved us quite a climate distance from the hiatus period, 2 or 3 decades of warming at 0.2C per decade. Going to take a while to sample enough weather in our new temperature range to see what the implications are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21 Share Posted November 21 Another theory is that the recent record warming of the EPAC near South America in early 2023 was strong enough to shift the PCC leading to the faster rate of warming last few years. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52731-6 The eastern tropical Pacific has defied the global warming trend. There has been a debate about whether this observed trend is forced or natural (i.e., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO) and this study shows that there are two patterns, one that oscillates along with the IPO, and one that is emerging since the mid-1950s, herein called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. As the tropical Pacific is known to be a climatic pacemaker, for (at least) the near-future this would mitigate global warming via ocean heat uptake and low-level cloud feedbacks. Instead, if the cyclic IPO dominates the recent cooling, we may expect a strong warming when it reverses https://theweek.com/news/environment/961878/cold-tongue-pacific-ocean-cool-patch-climate-change This isn’t just an “academic puzzle”, New Scientist said. In fact, according to Pedro DiNezio, at the University of Colorado Boulder, it is “the most important unanswered question in climate science”. Not knowing what is causing it “means we also don’t know when it will stop, or whether it will suddenly flip over into warming”, New Scientist added. This has huge worldwide implications and “could determine whether California is gripped by permanent drought or Australia by ever-deadlier wildfires” as well as “the intensity of monsoon season in India and the chances of famine in the Horn of Africa”. More profoundly still, “it could even alter the extent of climate change globally”, the site said, “by tweaking how sensitive Earth’s atmosphere is to rising greenhouse gas emissions”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Zeke Hausfather has a blog on how unusual global tempertatures have been in the current nino. Below is his chart for moderate, strong and super nino covered by the ERA5 reanalysis. This nino was unusually warm at the beginning and recently increasingly so at the end. Only Dec 1958, a 2-year nino, has late warmth similar to this year. Still some hope for further post-nino cooling, based on 1958 and current relatively warm ONI, but we are in the 4'th quarter of this nino cycle. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-unusual-is-current-post-el-nino 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 The record warmth continues to defy expectations based on past El Niño events with the warming starting earlier and now continuing later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 https://phys.org/news/2024-12-rapid-surge-global-due-planetary.html "..If a large part of the decline in albedo is indeed due to feedbacks between global warming and low clouds, as some climate models indicate, we should expect rather intense warming in the future," he stresses...." the interview doesn't go into 'why-for' lowering of low-level cloud production over the tropical Atlantic. but, I wonder ... hm. I've been reading about the increased moisture content penetrating deeper and deeper into the Saharan regions of Africa - attribution suggesting changes in the monsoonal footprint due to cc ..etc. there has even been observed 'greening,' and even episodes of transient pooling/lake genesis from heavier rains in regions. so what i'm wondering is whether aerosol soaking and greening might cause reduction of Saharan dust/eject off of Africa, to go along with the circulation changes associated with monsoonal variation ... the combination of these possible factors may lower the condensation nuclei populations, more at 'invisibly' less than normal, acting as a suppressor of lower tropospheric clouds --> lowering Albedo. one of the nerd things i like to do during the hurricane season is to monitor sal (saharan air layer) sat channels. there's still sal present, per bulk resolution ... however, i wonder if a more discrete mass quantification analysis, might expose that the actual sal density has been decreasing during these recent years of increasing albedo. the purpose of this idea is to target a cause of lowering cloud production. cloud suppression could also result from expanding hadley cell ( attribution..). internal within the hc domain, vertical motion fields, on balance, will be dvm (downward vertical motion). as the amorphous boundary where the hc terminates into the westerlies has been expanding n ( and s, s of the quator), there may be increasing episodes of dvm - . there could be multiple reasons for cloud suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: If a large part of the decline in albedo is indeed due to feedbacks between global warming and low clouds, as some climate models indicate, we should expect rather intense warming in the future," he stresses...." It really makes you wonder whether study back in 2020 was onto something.https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-clouds-are-the-key-to-new-troubling-projections-on-warming Others soon followed. Last month, American and British researchers, led by Zelinka, reported that 10 of 27 models they had surveyed now reckoned warming from doubling CO2 could exceed 4.5 degrees C, with some showing results up to 5.6 degrees. The average warming projected by the suite of models was 3.9 degrees C (7 degrees F), a 30-percent increase on the old IPCC consensus. French scientists at the National Center for Scientific Research concluded that the new models predicted that rapid economic growth driven by fossil fuels would deliver temperature rises averaging 6 to 7 degrees C (10.8 to 12.6 degrees F) by the end of the century. They warned that keeping warming below 2 degrees C was all but impossible. ALSO ON YALE E360 Can artificial intelligence help build better, smarter climate models? Read more. Zelinka said the new estimates of higher climate sensitivity were primarily due to changes made to how the models handled cloud dynamics. The models found that in a warmer world clouds would contain less water than previously thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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