Global Average Temperature 2024

[bluewave]

Will be interesting to see if we can get a new global high temperature record next week.

 

 

[bluewave]

The models did a great job forecasting the new daily global high temperature record.

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Models et al tend to perform pretty well up through 48 hours wrt temperature outlooks.  Not trying to sound dismissive of any monitoring efforts there, but is only to say that it doesn't surprise me. 

What I find interesting  - tho am not sure of the/any significance - is that all the ensemble mean distant outlooks wrt 500 mb height anomalies, GGEM, GEFS or EPS, all very persistently end up on a positive ledge.  This has been going on for years actually.  Seldom do we see these ever negative... ex, 360 EPS mean anomaly from 00 ( or any run... ) looks similar -

This products from all three major sources ... I don't recall the last time their mean coming back to neutral way out there in time. 

Again, I'm not sure if there's much operational value to this observation, but ... I think it is interesting that we seem to be verifying the dailies about the same amount of lower troposphere total positive anomaly, as these distant outlook products ( proportionally ) are positive.   

 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What I find interesting  - tho am not sure of the/any significance - is that all the ensemble mean distant outlooks wrt 500 mb height anomalies, GGEM, GEFS or EPS, all very persistently end up on a positive ledge.  This has been going on for years actually.  Never do we see these ever negative... ex, 360 EPS mean anomaly from 00 ( or any run... ) looks similar -

This has been the case for a while now as we have been seeing new positive 500 mb height anomaly records regularly these days.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL066669

Apart from global scale surface warming, anthropogenic forcings also lead to warming and thermal expansion of the lower atmosphere. Here we investigate these effects using the geopotential height at 500 hPa, an indicator of the combined thermodynamic and dynamic climatic response to external forcings. We employ optimal fingerprinting, which uses information from reanalysis data sets and experiments with seven state-of-the-art climate models, to assess the role of anthropogenic and natural influences on changes in the geopotential height during the satellite era. A significant global increase in the annual and seasonal mean geopotential height due to human influence is detected, a result confirmed with four different reanalysis data sets. A more moderate increase in the annual mean associated with natural forcings is also detected. Our findings, consistent with previous detection and attribution studies of changes in temperature and sea level pressure, indicate the prominent role of human influence on some recent climatic changes.

Key Points

 

• New independent evidence of human contribution to recent climatic changes in the lower atmosphere
• Human influence is detected in global increases in the 500 hPa geopotential height since 1979
• A smaller natural signal is also detected in changes of the annual mean geopotential height

 

[chubbs]

On 6/29/2024 at 7:05 AM, chubbs said:

A little surprised by the quote below. This year seems like a close call vs 2023 to me. Its warm this year; but, last year was super warm for a developing nino.

"By the end of 2024, global mean temperature will have declined significantly, but the annual 2024 global temperature should readily exceed the prior (2023) record."

With current spike in global temperatures, looking more and more like Hanson was right about a new record this year. We aren't seeing much of a drop in temperatures yet as we transition away from nino. Still clear of pre-2023 years.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 hours ago, chubbs said:

With current spike in global temperatures, looking more and more like Hanson was right about a new record this year. We aren't seeing much of a drop in temperatures yet as we transition away from nino. Still clear of pre-2023 years.

I'm suspicious over whether we will settle back.  General op ed:

The super Nino of 1998 seemed to " reset " the global temperatures, one that also appeared to be permanent?  I'm not abundantly sure on that, but now here we are 25 years later and we are not returning in 1996, so ... 

Much in the same way, it makes sense to me (intuitively, for reasons below) that this more recent "resetting" event should be both more permanent, and notable.  Why? we are also in a D(D(climate)) mode - a notation I'm using to mean accelerating.  

The antecedent multi-year Nina was suppressing an accelerating curve.  That is perhaps analogous to pulling the rubber band extra taut.   In other words, ... we needed to correct for more than just an erstwhile linear climate change suppression. It was that plus compounded interest - so to speak. 

As an aside ... I've come to find that even well-intended people of the general consilience, we don't seem to consider actual acceleration - at least not enough.  Not just the amount, but the concept of what acceleration really means. 

There is a spectrum there, where at one end is direct responses, and at the other is more and more indirect responses - those that are due to synergies and feed-backs giving rise to emergence that by nature can at best only be vaguely anticipated. That unfortunate limitation and reality should really lower a lot of assumption confidences about any existing total response model.  More so than I get the sense is really happening.  More anticipation for "surges" and corrections need to be assumed if not anticipated.   

That is a tricky prospect.  How does one cogently describe needing to anticipate emergent properties that are not presently knowable, in a crisis where what is already known is thought to be controvertible.   Good luck ...

Anyway, back to point.  It probably makes sense that an accelerating climate change may observe in subtle or gross surges ... at other times, more smoothly.  The planetary system is "jagged," with offsetting complex physics. If any one of those processes are transiently scaling a larger effect in the total system - masking the longer terms more persistent climate change - than alleviation of that effect would likely result in an more rapid restoral to the previous dynamic. Sometimes appearing abrupt.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since 1998, we have had 14 La Nina events, and 8 El Nino events. This heavy skew with La Nina conditions may even be keeping the global temperature down some over the past 20 years.. 

[donsutherland1]

Some global temperature data:

[donsutherland1]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some global temperature data:

Note: The preliminary 7/22 global mean surface temperature was finalized at 17.16C. Today's preliminary value is 17.15C.

[csnavywx]

On 7/24/2024 at 5:27 AM, chubbs said:

With current spike in global temperatures, looking more and more like Hanson was right about a new record this year. We aren't seeing much of a drop in temperatures yet as we transition away from nino. Still clear of pre-2023 years.

Some of the immediate spike is prob due to SSW over the S. Pole recently. I would expect that effect to fade back slowly over the next couple of weeks. Very interested to see how the current marine heatwaves in the NPac and NATL evolve into Sep though.

[bluewave]

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not sure if this was mentioned but Monday was the new 'hottest Earth day' ever measured/calculated continuing along a string of such days.  

( https://phys.org/news/2024-07-monday-warmest-day-earth-scientists.html )

[bdgwx]

I've been skeptical regarding research showing that the Hunga Tonga eruption had little impact on global average temperatures. It's probably time for me to throw in the towel. Hot off the press is yet another study showing no augmentation of the global average temperature. In fact, if anything, it may have slightly contributed a cooling influence. This is obviously more bad news for skeptics of global warming since Hunga Tonga was a factor that some used as evidence against Hansen's accelerated warming hypothesis.

[Shoeberl et al. 2024]

[bluewave]

On 7/25/2024 at 3:47 PM, csnavywx said:

Some of the immediate spike is prob due to SSW over the S. Pole recently. I would expect that effect to fade back slowly over the next couple of weeks. Very interested to see how the current marine heatwaves in the NPac and NATL evolve into Sep though.

Very impressive departures there with the big drop in the AAO.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive departures there with the big drop in the AAO.

 

Almost looks like positioning a synergistic u/a warm event over the actual pole   

[bluewave]

On 7/29/2024 at 5:46 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Almost looks like positioning a synergistic u/a warm event over the actual pole   

You know you are in a very cold environment when such a warm departure is still so far below 0°.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

I, for one, am really looking forward to getting some more years under our belt in this new climate regime to see what it's really capable of doing from an extreme weather standpoint. This is one thing I've thought about in the past. The "extremes" we've seen might just be slightly off the norms for the climate, the true extremes of natural variability in this regime might not yet have come close to having been realized.

[bluewave]

On 7/23/2024 at 8:53 AM, bluewave said:

This has been the case for a while now as we have been seeing new positive 500 mb height anomaly records regularly these days.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL066669

 

Apart from global scale surface warming, anthropogenic forcings also lead to warming and thermal expansion of the lower atmosphere. Here we investigate these effects using the geopotential height at 500 hPa, an indicator of the combined thermodynamic and dynamic climatic response to external forcings. We employ optimal fingerprinting, which uses information from reanalysis data sets and experiments with seven state-of-the-art climate models, to assess the role of anthropogenic and natural influences on changes in the geopotential height during the satellite era. A significant global increase in the annual and seasonal mean geopotential height due to human influence is detected, a result confirmed with four different reanalysis data sets. A more moderate increase in the annual mean associated with natural forcings is also detected. Our findings, consistent with previous detection and attribution studies of changes in temperature and sea level pressure, indicate the prominent role of human influence on some recent climatic changes.

Key Points

 

• New independent evidence of human contribution to recent climatic changes in the lower atmosphere
• Human influence is detected in global increases in the 500 hPa geopotential height since 1979
• A smaller natural signal is also detected in changes of the annual mean geopotential height

 

 

 

[chubbs]

This paper for fall AGU meeting indicates the earth's energy imbalance is the main reason this nino has been so warm. Note the rise in atmospheric heat content in 2024 due mainly to increasing water vapor content.

https://agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1553238

[chubbs]

GISS for July was 1.21 just edging 2023 for the 14'th straight monthly record. The last 2 months have been much warmer than 2016 and any pre-2023 year. The 2023/24 nino was fast to warm last year and is slow to cool down this year.

[csnavywx]

The way August is starting, it has a chance to be a record too. Have to think it finally comes to an end in Sep, though. Last Sep was nuclear.

[Typhoon Tip]

It's well known that the northern Polar regions have been warming at something like 2.5X the global rate in the ongoing CC monitoring. I wanna say I read recently, that's been corrected even more so. However, the cause of which is still being studied as to why. 

Meanwhile, I keep seeing studies/articles similar to this:  https://phys.org/news/2024-08-unexpectedly-large-methane-source-overlooked.html

I've been wondering ... Perhaps it is the flux of C02 and/or Methane that is directly related to the arctic warming acceleration. It may be kind of ACME science sounding, but ... the PVs relative strength over the years might in fact trap lower tropospheric fluxes, particularly during positive phases of the AO.   The idea there is that consequentially, elevating local Methane etc might trap might more heat ( relative to the trapped environment ).

The reasoning there is admittedly perhaps an over simplification of a lot of complex processes and feed backs, both positive and negative therein... However, a positive AO tends to 'bottle' cold N; by physical constraint, the dispersion out of the arctic of cold is slowed during those phases.  Wouldn't the dispersion of C02/Methane fluxes follow the air flow?  The +AOs may not be homogenizing the arctic tropospheres with the global ambience ... outside the PV domain, as readily as it would during -AOs ...  That's when conveyors that deliver cold to middle latitudes become established, being academic.

In other words, positive feed back for warming might be circuited through the slower dispersion rate of out-gassing. 

Of course ...one would think with hundreds or even thousands of atmospheric accredited scientists working the CC-arctic, this has been thought of and/or papered by now.  Haven't check.  This could all be reinventing wheels.  I checked the last 30 years, and the AO has been positive.  A cursory evaluation of the coarse graphical product at CPC does suggest that the AO has been positive more than negative since 1990. 

[TriPol]

On 7/24/2024 at 12:08 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since 1998, we have had 14 La Nina events, and 8 El Nino events. This heavy skew with La Nina conditions may even be keeping the global temperature down some over the past 20 years.. 

When was the last time we had 2 or more years straight of La Nada?

[bdgwx]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

When was the last time we had 2 or more years straight of La Nada?

The winters of 12/13 and 13/14 were La Nada.

[csnavywx]

CERES EEI finally flipped significantly negative in May on a monthly basis for the first time since Feb '16. We'll see if it's a blip or not, but EEI trends this year suggest we should finally see some more significant cooling in the next several months (thankfully). 12 mo. rolling average is still around +1W/m2, which is still pretty high considering just how ridiculously hot the last year has been (+1.6C above preindustrial). Kind of sinks the entire 1.5C/2C argument when you're still running positive even after a jump in temps like that.

[TriPol]

56 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

The winters of 12/13 and 13/14 were La Nada.

Is it me, or are there more El Niños and La Nina’s than La Nadas?

[bluewave]

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, TriPol said:

When was the last time we had 2 or more years straight of La Nada?

2012-14 was the last time. And it was the only time since 1992-94.

1959-63 was the last time we had 3 or more straight year of Neutral. 

[csnavywx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

 

Carbon Monitor with similar numbers. Aviation starting to become a serious issue. Another year of massive growth.

[Typhoon Tip]

18 hours ago, csnavywx said:

CERES EEI finally flipped significantly negative in May on a monthly basis for the first time since Feb '16. We'll see if it's a blip or not, but EEI trends this year suggest we should finally see some more significant cooling in the next several months (thankfully). 12 mo. rolling average is still around +1W/m2, which is still pretty high considering just how ridiculously hot the last year has been (+1.6C above preindustrial). Kind of sinks the entire 1.5C/2C argument when you're still running positive even after a jump in temps like that.

It's hypothesis but, I'm curious whether the reduction in sulfur emissions, 2023, may be related. 

Sulfur is tricky. It's more like an indirect greenhouse gas by effecting reactions with those compounds that are more or less efficient GH. 

But it's complex, because stand alone, it is both effecting warming by direct absorption, but also cools for reflecting sun light in clouds.

Those latter capacities are not constant either.  There are circumstances when d(more or less) LWR is being absorbed, and d(more or less) sun is being reflected.  We know sulfur in the stratosphere is a solar reflector, but sulfur in the troposphere... particularly below mid levels, I "think" is both reflecting in cloud droplets, and absorber when in free air. 

In either case, the rather abrupt abeyance of emissions - if measured to be effectively significant enough - might move the EEI numbers.