Global Average Temperature 2024

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, chubbs said:

Yes it is surprising to see SST increasing recently. Atlantic MDR has reached early Aug temps.

I guess this is to be expected given the acceleration of ocean warming as per this recent study. But the timing of this most recent spike will probably need some further investigation. It would be interesting to know which specific variables were involved so we could forecast these individual temperature jumps more successfully. 
 

 

 

[GaWx]

23 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

What year is that gray line near the 2024 line from?

 

21 hours ago, chubbs said:

Don't know. Here's the site with the original chart (Kim Wood's)

https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTmonitoring.html

 By going to Charlie’s link, I was able to find the year by looking at Mar 1 anomalies of all years one by one in the dataset, 1981+. The answer: 2010. Nothing else is even close in the MDR except, of course, 2024:

Map above from here: https://www.psl.noaa.gov/tmp/mddb2/4mMm92fguL/sampleframe.png?timestamp=1714238797151

 
 Here’s the slightly warmer 3/1/24 for comparison:

 

 Note that on Mar 1 (as well as during the entire period late Feb-Apr 26) 2024 and 2010 are by far the two warmest. That’s why 2010 has been noted as one of the top analogs by at least two well-known forecasters. Note that 2010 anoms remained very warm through Sep 10:

[GaWx]

12 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

What year is that gray line near the 2024 line from?

 

9 hours ago, chubbs said:

Don't know. Here's the site with the original chart (Kim Wood's)

https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTmonitoring.html

 By going to Charlie’s link, I was also able to find the year that spiked so high ~May 25:

 

 It was 2005:

 To compare, here’s 2nd warmest for May 25 (2010):

 Here’s 5/25/23 for comparison (3rd warmest):

 

 Interestingly, 2005 cooled rapidly by June 15 (can see rapid drop on MDR graph with all the years) though it subsequently warmed substantially again.

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see what is causing the the global SSTs to peak a month later than average continuing at record levels.

 

 

why would global SST be peaking now instead of during the summer, Chris?

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, chubbs said:

Yes it is surprising to see SST increasing recently. Atlantic MDR has reached early Aug temps.

But isn't an increase what we would expect right now towards the latter part of spring? Granted it's much warmer than normal, but they should be going up.

[LibertyBell]

On 4/17/2024 at 2:46 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is very interesting

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-scientists-paradox-extreme-cold-events.html

I've mused a possible sci fi novel idea in the past where "Gaia," it turns out, has an an ethereal consciousness; it's just so vast it eludes what we think of as awareness - ... perhaps 'godlike'.   And, it is well-aware of CC, more importantly, how to "cure" the disease.

I like the analogy of the Clean setting on an oven - you know... raise the temperature to kiln degrees and converts the organics to ash. The impetus here is of course to clean the disease causing agent. But that's kind of hard to do if the pathogen is aware of the temperature rise. Uh... humans are the intended ash to complete this metaphor. 

By sending cold cloaks into the continents ... think of the frog in the pan experiment:  plunk a frog into a pan of boiling water and it immediately jumps out ( or tries to...).   But turn the heat up slowly and the frog, continuously adapting, will do so until it is cooked alive.  

That's all tongue-in-cheek, but it's an eerie negative feedback loop whence the primary inducing differential CC agent only responds immediately to that which is directly perceivable through the five senses ... which is precisely needed, and is being offset.  

There's a certain hot dog vendor who needs to be sterilized permanently so his inferior low quality genes don't get passed down to the next generation.  Could you imagine that thing ever being a parent? I wouldn't wish that on ANY child.

 

[chubbs]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But isn't an increase what we would expect right now towards the latter part of spring? Granted it's much warmer than normal, but they should be going up.

Yes the Atlantic MDR should be going up gradually, peaking in late summer, while the global average peaks in late March.  I was referring to the recent spike upwards  in MDR temps over the past week or so.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, chubbs said:

Yes the Atlantic MDR should be going up gradually, peaking in late summer, while the global average peaks in late March.  I was referring to the recent spike upwards  in MDR temps over the past week or so.

What causes the global average to peak in late March-- is that because we have much more ocean over the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere?

 

[chubbs]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What causes the global average to peak in late March-- is that because we have much more ocean over the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere?

 

Not sure, but that would make sense. There is a secondary peak in August.

[bdgwx]

The UAH April update came in at +1.05 C and is the highest value in their record and obliterating the previous record for April from 1998 by 0.43 C.

[bdgwx]

And for those who were keeping up with the Monckton Pause updates we now have a warming rate of +0.32 C/decade since the start of Monckton's most recent pause period at its peak from 2014/06. That is a lot of warming for a period that was supposed to be the end-all-be-all proof that warming had stopped.

[GaWx]

On 4/27/2024 at 8:51 AM, Bhs1975 said:

What year is that gray line near the 2024 line from?

 

On 4/27/2024 at 11:12 AM, chubbs said:

Don't know. Here's the site with the original chart (Kim Wood's)

 By going to Charlie’s link, I was able to find the year by looking at Mar 1 anomalies of all years one by one in the dataset, 1981+. The answer: 2010. Nothing else is even close except, of course, 2024:

 For some slight good news at least for now: the Atlantic MDR is for the first time in 11 months no longer the warmest on record as 2010 has barely overtaken it.

 

 

[chubbs]

 

[SnoSki14]

On 5/2/2024 at 8:28 AM, bdgwx said:

The UAH April update came in at +1.05 C and is the highest value in their record and obliterating the previous record for April from 1998 by 0.43 C.

For a long time deniers like JB used this as evidence that warming has stopped. 

What's their excuse now it blew previous values out of the water. 

[bluewave]

 

[GaWx]

On 5/6/2024 at 5:20 AM, SnoSki14 said:

For a long time deniers like JB used this as evidence that warming has stopped. 

What's their excuse now it blew previous values out of the water. 

Perhaps this (see link below). I do wonder myself if Hunga Tonga's eruption of an enormous amount of water into the stratosphere could be a significant factor in the very recent unexplained GW acceleration. Regardless, JB's been talking a lot about a supposed correlation of increased underwater seismic activity since 1990 or so and GW. I think he's reaching without strong evidence and think he's saying this due to his denying that increased CO2 has been a significant factor.

https://www.science.org/content/article/massive-undersea-eruption-filled-atmosphere-water

Meanwhile, the Atlantic MDR is back to being barely warmer than 2010 meaning the warmest on record since 1982.

[bluewave]

A recent study found that the volcanic eruption had a cooling effect.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Perhaps this (see link below). I do wonder myself if Hunga Tonga's eruption of an enormous amount of water into the stratosphere could be a significant factor in the very recent unexplained GW acceleration. Regardless, JB's been talking a lot about a supposed correlation of increased underwater seismic activity since 1990 or so and GW. I think he's reaching without strong evidence and think he's saying this due to his denying that increased CO2 has been a significant factor.

https://www.science.org/content/article/massive-undersea-eruption-filled-atmosphere-water

Meanwhile, the Atlantic MDR is back to being barely warmer than 2010 meaning the warmest on record since 1982.

I don't buy it. Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai was a VEI of 6 [or at least high end 5]. Prior to 2022, all available science said strong volcanic eruptions cause cooling, not warming. I have read in the past where a series of eruptions or flood basalt eruptions can lead to climate warming over time, but not ephemeral warming. Instead, they lead to sustained warming over long [geological] timescales from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. 

Unless someone can provide proof from the geological record of a volcanic eruption causing warming, I am going to assume HTHH led to climate cooling and it would have been even warmer over the past couple of years in the absence of the volcano.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A recent study found that the volcanic eruption had a cooling effect.

 

Interesting. I have been very skeptical of claims that HTHH caused climate warming. Never heard of a volcanic eruption producing a significant warming effect prior to 2022.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. I have been very skeptical of claims that HTHH caused climate warming. Never heard of a volcanic eruption producing a significant warming effect prior to 2022.

The cooling effect was very small so not much of a factor in regard to the big global temperatures.
 

One point to emphasize: the net effect is cooling, but it’s a small effect. Without it, globe would not be much warmer.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I don't buy it. Hunga Tonga Hunga Ha'apai was a VEI of 6 [or at least high end 5]. Prior to 2022, all available science said strong volcanic eruptions cause cooling, not warming. I have read in the past where a series of eruptions or flood basalt eruptions can lead to climate warming over time, but not ephemeral warming. Instead, they lead to sustained warming over long [geological] timescales from increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. 

Unless someone can provide proof from the geological record of a volcanic eruption causing warming, I am going to assume HTHH led to climate cooling and it would have been even warmer over the past couple of years in the absence of the volcano.

 

 This volcano was different because it blasted a huge amount of water vapor high up into the atmosphere. This is of course highly unusual. Thus it may have caused a temporary net warming though probably small. I assume it is too early to know:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/

 

https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming#:~:text=of Warming - Eos-,Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°,over the next 5 years.

[TheClimateChanger]

44 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 This volcano was different because it blasted a huge amount of water vapor high up into the atmosphere. This is of course highly unusual. Thus it may have caused a temporary net warming though probably small. I assume it is too early to know:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/

 

https://eos.org/articles/tonga-eruption-may-temporarily-push-earth-closer-to-1-5c-of-warming#:~:text=of Warming - Eos-,Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°,over the next 5 years.

Interesting. I can't really make heads or tails of this stratospheric water vapor stuff. You would think if the stratosphere is cooling (as it is), then water vapor would decrease since colder air holds less moisture. Alternatively, if water vapor was increasing, you would think the stratosphere would warm since water vapor is a greenhouse gas. Yet observational data shows temperature is decreasing but water vapor is increasing. This seems to be a bit of a paradox.

[TheClimateChanger]

Clearly, GPT is confused as well because it comes to the same conclusion as me.

[bdgwx]

Water vapor in the stratosphere behaves differently than the in troposphere in regards to how it gets there and how it gets out. It doesn't necessarily following the same higher-temperature higher-WV relationship that exists in the troposphere.

Anyway, The HT eruption did significantly alter the stratosphere. I too have been suspicious of the underestimation in its warming potential. Though I certainly concede that even if it is underestimated it's probably by only a couple of tenths of W/m2 at most. Considering the planetary energy imbalance currently sits at +1.56 W/m2 (last 12 months CERES) that's not a huge contribution by any means.

[chubbs]

17 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Water vapor in the stratosphere behaves differently than the in troposphere in regards to how it gets there and how it gets out. It doesn't necessarily following the same higher-temperature higher-WV relationship that exists in the troposphere.

Anyway, The HT eruption did significantly alter the stratosphere. I too have been suspicious of the underestimation in its warming potential. Though I certainly concede that even if it is underestimated it's probably by only a couple of tenths of W/m2 at most. Considering the planetary energy imbalance currently sits at +1.56 W/m2 (last 12 months CERES) that's not a huge contribution by any means.

Yes the final chapter on the overall impact of HT hasn't been written yet. Whatever it is its not likely to be large. Much smaller than the CO2-related warming we are experiencing. A couple of points: 1) The warming effect of H20 in the stratosphere is due to infrared absorption just like CO2, 2) H20 has a much bigger infrared effect in the upper troposphere because infrared upwelling is larger in the troposphere and H2O concentrations are higher. Increased tropospheric water is virtually all from CO2 feedback. Anyone making the case for a large HT impact is making the case for an even larger CO2 warming effect.

[bluewave]

 

 

Article Highlights

• Satellite observations reveal that global mean net flux (NET) at the top-of-atmosphere (or equivalently, Earth’s energy imbalance) has doubled during the first twenty years of this century. The increase is associated with a marked increase in absorbed solar radiation (ASR) that is partially offset by an increase in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)

• While ASR and OLR changes within sub-periods corresponding to the hiatus (03/2000–05/2010), transition-to-El Niño (06/2010–05/2016), and post-El Niño (06/2016–12/2022) vary substantially, NET flux changes are remarkably stable (within 0.1 Wm⁻² per decade), implying a steady acceleration of climate warming

• The increase in ASR is associated with decreases in stratocumulus and middle cloud fraction and reflection in the Northern Hemisphere, and decreases in middle cloud reflection in the Southern Hemisphere. The cloud changes are especially large in areas with marked increases in sea-surface temperature, such as over the eastern and northern Pacific Ocean

• Continued monitoring of Earth’s radiation budget and new and updated climate model simulations are critically needed to understand how and why Earth’s climate is changing at such an accelerated pace

[csnavywx]

No question 2023 outperformed. Now curious to see how far we re-trace this year and next. A good strong Nina would put it to the test and kind of kill off lingering doubts if there is acceleration.

[bdgwx]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

I just finished reading the paper. I think at this point we can probably put Lindzen's Iris hypothesis to bed. It is looking very unlikely that the cloud feedback is negative. In fact, it's the exact opposite. The more and more data we see the more and more likely it appears to be positive.

[csnavywx]

3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I just finished reading the paper. I think at this point we can probably put Lindzen's Iris hypothesis to bed. It is looking very unlikely that the cloud feedback is negative. In fact, it's the exact opposite. The more and more data we see the more and more likely it appears to be positive.

Also puts nail in coffin for any ECS of ~2 or less. Hell I'd be sweating bullets if my *TCR* estimate was 2 or less at this point.

[chubbs]

Annual update to IPCC indicators through 2023. Heat balance chart below. Not surprisingly estimated budgets for 1.5, 1.7 and 2C continue to shrink. Honga Tonga is assessed to have a minimal effect on volcanic forcing (water and sulfur cancel).

The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. This is below the 2023 observed record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of greenhouse gas emissions being at an all-time high of 54 ± 5.4 GtCO2e per year over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO₂ emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2024-149/