Global Average Temperature 2024

[LibertyBell]

On 3/20/2024 at 7:30 PM, chubbs said:

A number of relatively small items are aiding warming. We are near the peak of a solar cycle that is stronger than the last cycle (see chart below). Haven't seen a definitive accounting but the Hunga Tonga volcano is likely a small plus warming factor. Finally man-made forcing is increasing at a faster rate in the past 10 years as aerosol emissions come down due to air pollution control..

right, solar maximum is why so many are excited about the total solar eclipse next month, it's timed perfectly for some big solar storms.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/20/2024 at 8:15 PM, csnavywx said:

I think we all know who's sock that is by now and it's because they don't think the data is real.

When a good scientist gets new data, they change their opinion.

When most people get new data, they change the data.

he's not that smart, his brain has been infested with pesticides

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/22/2024 at 6:22 AM, chubbs said:

We are approaching 1.5C of warming, when climate change impacts ramp, and the global warming rate has increased. Not a good place to be, and we have no excuse, it was well predicted.

 

if anything we will reach 2.0 in short order, probably by 2030.

[bdgwx]

NOAAGlobalTemp has been updated to version 6.0. This version uses artificial intelligence to improve the temperature reconstruction. 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/noaa-global-temp

[bluewave]

Record air and sea surface temperatures continue.

 

 

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Record air and sea surface temperatures continue.

 

 

Yes we are still breaking daily re-analysis records, but not by "gobsmacking" amounts like we were in the second half of last year. Anomalies are running closer to where you would expect them to be, above last year and moderately above 2016, the last strong nino. We have been in a rough anomaly plateau since last September. With la nina developing, and normal seasonal effects, would expect anomalies to begin to drop soon, similar to 2016, and to cool below 2023 later in the year. We'll see.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

Yes we are still breaking daily re-analysis records, but not by "gobsmacking" amounts like we were in the second half of last year. Anomalies are running closer to where you would expect them to be, above last year and moderately above 2016, the last strong nino. We have been in a rough anomaly plateau since last September. With la nina developing, and normal seasonal effects, would expect anomalies to begin to drop soon, similar to 2016, and to cool below 2023 later in the year. We'll see.

 

Yeah, the second half of 2023 was so much more extreme than anything we have seen before.

 

 

[chubbs]

March was another record monthly anomaly on UAH. The temperature spike during this nino is unusually large in UAH, as large or larger than 97-98 judging by the 13-month running mean, which will continue to increase for a few months. Measurement inconsistency through the years likely contributing. Top 5 March's in UAH below:

1 2024 0.95
2 2016 0.65
3 2010 0.38
4 2020 0.35
5 1998 0.34

[SnoSki14]

39 minutes ago, chubbs said:

March was another record monthly anomaly on UAH. The temperature spike during this nino is unusually large in UAH, as large or larger than 97-98 judging by the 13-month running mean, which will continue to increase for a few months. Measurement inconsistency through the years likely contributing. Top 5 March's in UAH below:

1 2024 0.95
2 2016 0.65
3 2010 0.38
4 2020 0.35
5 1998 0.34

So funny this was the tool climate change deniers kept using as evidence of no warming and now it blew through those metrics

So now they're pivoting to other explanations like JB with his underwater volcanoes

[bdgwx]

The 2nd order polynomial regression on the UAH data shows an acceleration of the warming trend of +0.05 C.decade-2.

[chubbs]

12 hours ago, bdgwx said:

The 2nd order polynomial regression on the UAH data shows an acceleration of the warming trend of +0.05 C/decade-2.

It's obvious that there is inconsistency in UAH during the NOAA 14 and 15 transition.  Warming is rapid now that enough data has accumulated after the transition for trend analysis. I can recall Spencer saying that climate change would be a concern if warming reached 0.2C per decade. Wonder how long it will take him to notice that UAH6 has blown by his own concern threshold.

 

 

[bluewave]

March was the 10th consecutive record breaking month for global temperatures. The SSTs also continue to set daily records. We’re are a few weeks now past the typical spring peak on 3-22.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

A lot of this isn't novel  ... but I'm particularly interested in the statements surrounding the oceanic C02 --> 02 possible collapse

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-scientists-spain-alarm-ocean.html

[chubbs]

Ceres net radiation data has been updated through January. As expected in a strong nino, the radiation imbalance has been shrinking since last summer, as the warmer atmosphere increases outgoing radiation. The downcycle should run for a while longer; but, we have a ways to go to return to 2015/16 conditions.

[bluewave]

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This is very interesting

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-scientists-paradox-extreme-cold-events.html

I've mused a possible sci fi novel idea in the past where "Gaia," it turns out, has an an ethereal consciousness; it's just so vast it eludes what we think of as awareness - ... perhaps 'godlike'.   And, it is well-aware of CC, more importantly, how to "cure" the disease.

I like the analogy of the Clean setting on an oven - you know... raise the temperature to kiln degrees and converts the organics to ash. The impetus here is of course to clean the disease causing agent. But that's kind of hard to do if the pathogen is aware of the temperature rise. Uh... humans are the intended ash to complete this metaphor. 

By sending cold cloaks into the continents ... think of the frog in the pan experiment:  plunk a frog into a pan of boiling water and it immediately jumps out ( or tries to...).   But turn the heat up slowly and the frog, continuously adapting, will do so until it is cooked alive.  

That's all tongue-in-cheek, but it's an eerie negative feedback loop whence the primary inducing differential CC agent only responds immediately to that which is directly perceivable through the five senses ... which is precisely needed, and is being offset.  

[TheClimateChanger]

On 4/16/2024 at 7:53 AM, bluewave said:

 

 

Interesting. I bet the negative anomaly in North America is due to the increase in wildfire smoke, especially last year, when we had a couple of HECS (historical east coast smoke storms).

[cleetussnow]

What's up with this volcano in Indonesia?  It has a 70K feet ash plume which is high enough, and the thing is equatorial, so those 2 are ingredients for weather impacts, no?

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

What's up with this volcano in Indonesia?  It has a 70K feet ash plume which is high enough, and the thing is equatorial, so those 2 are ingredients for weather impacts, no?

 

 What, where,and when would these wx impacts be? How significant would they be in relation to other factors? Also, keep in mind that the magnitude, scope, and timing of the effects of the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcano on the globe's wx are still being sorted out/debated. Several studies I've seen suggest that's its strongest effects may not be over for a good number of years (rest of the decade) with the most significant possibly still ahead due to a significant increase in water vapor that rose into the stratosphere. It is all very complex!

 

 

 

[csnavywx]

https://twitter.com/airesEO/status/1780839755011518889/video/1

[csnavywx]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

 What, where,and when would these wx impacts be? How significant would they be in relation to other factors? Also, keep in mind that the magnitude, scope, and timing of the effects of the 2022 Hunga Tonga volcano on the globe's wx are still being sorted out/debated. Several studies I've seen suggest that's its strongest effects may not be over for a good number of years (rest of the decade) with the most significant possibly still ahead due to a significant increase in water vapor that rose into the stratosphere. It is all very complex!

 

 

 

About 0.5Tg of SO2 so far. Not enough to be important to climate on its own. About 2-3% of Pinatubo's numbers.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 hours ago, csnavywx said:

About 0.5Tg of SO2 so far. Not enough to be important to climate on its own. About 2-3% of Pinatubo's numbers.

I was also wondering about the ejecta heights in that question of his, too.

70 K feet is really barely punching through the tropopause over the equatorial latitudes.  The altitude being ~ 60K ... but the termination into the stratosphere is obviously more the 10 K.  

That might matter.  S02 in the troposphere where turbulent mixing and H20 interaction/reactions ..etc, disperses a local volcanic event to where it probably barely shows up as a blip in the total global PP(unit-v) within short months.  

Get an inject into the stratosphere though - different ball game.

[csnavywx]

On 4/19/2024 at 8:49 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I was also wondering about the ejecta heights in that question of his, too.

70 K feet is really barely punching through the tropopause over the equatorial latitudes.  The altitude being ~ 60K ... but the termination into the stratosphere is obviously more the 10 K.  

That might matter.  S02 in the troposphere where turbulent mixing and H20 interaction/reactions ..etc, disperses a local volcanic event to where it probably barely shows up as a blip in the total global PP(unit-v) within short months.  

Get an inject into the stratosphere though - different ball game.

Looked to me on IR like it got above the tropopause briefly. Total emission just not enough to move the dial very much though.

Ironically the bigger movers lately (besides HT WV injection) have been big pyroCB events. The '19/'20 Aus fires esp but the summer Canadian fires last year were no slouch either.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Looked to me on IR like it got above the tropopause briefly. Total emission just not enough to move the dial very much though.

Ironically the bigger movers lately (besides HT WV injection) have been big pyroCB events. The '19/'20 Aus fires esp but the summer Canadian fires last year were no slouch either.

That might make sense ...both locations are a bit displaced from the equatorial regions where the tropopause heights are naturally lower.

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see what is causing the the global SSTs to peak a month later than average continuing at record levels.

 

 

[chubbs]

Yes it is surprising to see SST increasing recently. Atlantic MDR has reached early Aug temps.

[Bhs1975]

Yes it is surprising to see SST increasing recently. Atlantic MDR has reached early Aug temps.

What year is that gray line near the 2024 line from?

[LibertyBell]

On 4/17/2024 at 2:46 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is very interesting

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-scientists-paradox-extreme-cold-events.html

I've mused a possible sci fi novel idea in the past where "Gaia," it turns out, has an an ethereal consciousness; it's just so vast it eludes what we think of as awareness - ... perhaps 'godlike'.   And, it is well-aware of CC, more importantly, how to "cure" the disease.

I like the analogy of the Clean setting on an oven - you know... raise the temperature to kiln degrees and converts the organics to ash. The impetus here is of course to clean the disease causing agent. But that's kind of hard to do if the pathogen is aware of the temperature rise. Uh... humans are the intended ash to complete this metaphor. 

By sending cold cloaks into the continents ... think of the frog in the pan experiment:  plunk a frog into a pan of boiling water and it immediately jumps out ( or tries to...).   But turn the heat up slowly and the frog, continuously adapting, will do so until it is cooked alive.  

That's all tongue-in-cheek, but it's an eerie negative feedback loop whence the primary inducing differential CC agent only responds immediately to that which is directly perceivable through the five senses ... which is precisely needed, and is being offset.  

uhm this is exactly what I write about

 

read

I conjecture on a new theory of everything; in my theory each dimension can be analoged to a primary color..... in our universe each spatial dimension would be equivalent to an additive primary color (RGB) with time as the background (Black) with a complementary spacetime which consisted of dimensions that analoged to the subtractive primary colors (CMY) with complementary time as the background (White) as one space expanded the other contracts and vice versa (because the arrow of time flows opposite to each other but forward within each), It's been peer reviewed and it seems there's some excitement over this as this would solve the dark matter / dark energy problem by unifying the strong nuclear force and gravity (the strong nuclear force is carried by gluons and color charge and analoging dimensions to primary colors is gravity's version of color charge) so now we have a strong force-gravity unification and an electroweak unification and we just need to combine those dualities. There are four layers to the omniverse, with universes of different dimensions in each layer (the number of dimensions in each layer bear a pythagorean relationship to the other layers and each universe has a parent superverse from whose parent black hole it was created. If you loop through the entire hierarchy of universes you end up back where you started, so the omniverse is not only cyclical time, but also in space. I guess I'll leave that for a sequel lol. 

BTW if there are multiple timelines they would be created right after the big bang, by the force of inflation and be emergent diverging timelines along two dimensions of time (think cartesian coordinates) and if the cyclic model is correct and dark flow does reverse the expansion of space, the time lines would converge once again with a Big Bounce as the universe deflated (rinse and repeat.) The antiverse would have opposing cycles (because the arrow of time was opposite compared to ours) and if there was someway to construct some sort of device (a la star gate) to tap into the barrier which separates the two (consisting of light, which does not experience the passage of time) than both time and long distance space travel would become possible through the second temporal dimension (which keeps each timeline intact)...... according to Einstein the past, present and future all coexist and it is we who move through them, so theoretically this should be possible. He also stated that the universe (or omniverse on a larger scale) created us in order to understand itself better, forming the framework for a cosmic collective mind which encompasses not only humans, but animals, plants, alien life, even whole planets (Gaia Theory, which has been proven multiple times) and even stars and galaxies, the only difference is the density of the level of consciousness, although planets (for example) are much larger than any single life form, their density of consciousness is much less, with their memories (fossil record) spread out over a much larger area, so any one spot (on our scale) is seemingly lifeless. But it's not. The planet consists of a complicated series of checks and balances and delicate interplay between different parts that can and should be considered alive.
 

 

 

also read:

https://nautil.us/the-strange-similarity-of-neuron-and-galaxy-networks-236709/

 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 4/17/2024 at 2:46 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is very interesting

https://phys.org/news/2024-04-scientists-paradox-extreme-cold-events.html

I've mused a possible sci fi novel idea in the past where "Gaia," it turns out, has an an ethereal consciousness; it's just so vast it eludes what we think of as awareness - ... perhaps 'godlike'.   And, it is well-aware of CC, more importantly, how to "cure" the disease.

I like the analogy of the Clean setting on an oven - you know... raise the temperature to kiln degrees and converts the organics to ash. The impetus here is of course to clean the disease causing agent. But that's kind of hard to do if the pathogen is aware of the temperature rise. Uh... humans are the intended ash to complete this metaphor. 

By sending cold cloaks into the continents ... think of the frog in the pan experiment:  plunk a frog into a pan of boiling water and it immediately jumps out ( or tries to...).   But turn the heat up slowly and the frog, continuously adapting, will do so until it is cooked alive.  

That's all tongue-in-cheek, but it's an eerie negative feedback loop whence the primary inducing differential CC agent only responds immediately to that which is directly perceivable through the five senses ... which is precisely needed, and is being offset.  

also note-- the trees in the Amazon regulate their own rainfall.

 

[chubbs]

2 hours ago, Bhs1975 said:

What year is that gray line near the 2024 line from?

Don't know. Here's the site with the original chart (Kim Wood's)

https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTmonitoring.html