chubbs Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yikes, found this chart in Zeke's thread. Odds of a record this year have increased to 38% from 6% at the start of the year; and, it is possible that we have crossed 1.5C for good on the Berkeley Earth series. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 3 hours ago, chubbs said: Yikes, found this chart in Zeke's thread. Odds of a record this year have increased to 38% from 6% at the start of the year; and, it is possible that we have crossed 1.5C for good on the Berkeley Earth series. I remember you posting an article on the Nino 1+2 very early warming into the spring of 2023. Wondering if this new PCC pattern they discovered in the Pacifc may be related to the faster warming last few years. We have noticed how these WWBs and warming have been very impressive in the EPAC since the spring of 2023. The WWBs actually set a February record last month with the warming which has occurred there last few weeks. They don’t seem to know very much yet about this but I think it could possibly be related to why the warming suddenly increased beyond all past cases related to ENSO. https://lamont.columbia.edu/news/climate-change-signal-tropical-pacific 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 On 2/6/2025 at 8:38 AM, nflwxman said: Been several years since I've posted here, but between the recent trends in global temperature, and increased rate of growth in levels of CO2 measured, it's clear we are not in for a good 2030 - 2045 as a species. Mass migration that climate scientists predicted is already happening and clearly causing the geopolitical stresses. Amazing that the media has not acknowledged the truth of that prediction from nearly 20 years ago. the media are corporate buffoons, they concentrate on effects rather than causes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 fortunes being made capitalism is killing us all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 · 2d Global surface temperatures continue to impress this year at 2nd hottest on record, with the latest data point (from March 14, 2025) once again at 1.70°C above the pre-industrial baseline. Something something 120,000 years. Oh, and I forgot to mention that ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, bluewave said: · 2d Global surface temperatures continue to impress this year at 2nd hottest on record, with the latest data point (from March 14, 2025) once again at 1.70°C above the pre-industrial baseline. Something something 120,000 years. Oh, and I forgot to mention that ... Hypothesis ... but I wonder if that curve doesn't ascend above 2024 or at least match, over the next month as the sun continues to seasonally rise over the northern hemisphere. During that period, the land masses will be brightening their thermal contribution ( increasing absorption --> LR ...etc), while at the same time, the southern hemisphere's still contributing source due to summer lagging. One aspect that may interfere ( keep things 'artificially' colder ) is that the hemispheric pattern foot appears to be situating a cold variant. There is tendencies to A/B phase the North Pacific circulation mode, and that is a cold load into eastern Asia and the North American continent, as well as tendencies to do so in N Europ over to the Urals. That may offset the initial warming response as the climbing sun angle happens quite fast at this time of year. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Some new clues pointing toward the Eastern Pacific in regard to the historic global temperature increase since 2023. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adb448 Reconciling Earth's growing energy imbalance with ocean warming Richard P Allan* and Christopher J Merchant Published 11 March 2025 • © 2025 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd This energy balance framework along with estimates of net imbalance changes and heat uptake by the land, atmosphere and cryosphere are further exploited to reconcile the rapid warming from 2022 to 2023 with energy budget changes. Based on observational evidence and assumptions, we determine an ocean heating of ∼1.49±0.33 Wm−2 during the rapid warming period, August 2022 to July 2023. A large observed near-global ice-free ocean surface warming of 0.27 from 2022 to 2023 is found to be physically consistent with the large energy imbalance of 1.85±0.3 Wm−2 and subsequent ocean heating from August 2022 to July 2023 but only if (1) a reduced depth of mixed layer (∼50 m) is heated or (2) there is a reversal in the sign of the heat flux from the mixed layer to deeper levels. The latter explanation (2) appears more likely given that a substantial upwelling of heat from the sub-surface eastern Pacific is generally associated with the transition from La Niña to El Niño conditions (Minobe et al 2024). The elevated ocean temperatures during 2023-24 are also expected to substantially alter and increase surface heat loss through turbulent fluxes at the ocean surface, which merits further investigation. Although Earth's energy budget peaked in 2023 and subsided up to June 2024, as record warmth ultimately led to extra thermal emission into space, it is notable that levels remained elevated relative to comparable minima following El Niño events in early 2016, 2010 and 1998. Richard Allan @rpallanuk.bsky.social Follow Our planet is becoming dimmer, in so many ways… our new @nceoscience.bsky.social @uor-research.bsky.social study teases out a signal of less shiny ocean clouds & how they combined with greenhouse gas heating to fast track #climate warming up to the balmy 2023/24 El Niño: doi.org/10.1088/1748... ALT ALT ALT ALT March 11, 2025 at 4:16 AM Everybody can 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 I think we would be remiss to not also consider recent reduction in human aerosol emissions. I think most people think of aerosols as directly cooling the earth by absorbing and scattering sunlight. However, it should also be noted that these also provide cloud condensation nuclei which lead to thicker and brighter marine clouds. This effect may be as large, if not larger, than the direct effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted March 20 Author Share Posted March 20 On 3/19/2025 at 2:27 PM, TheClimateChanger said: However, it should also be noted that these also provide cloud condensation nuclei which lead to thicker and brighter marine clouds. This effect may be as large, if not larger, than the direct effect. Good point. I wasn't even aware of the cloud nuclei effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 A little glimpse into our collective future: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Tuesday at 11:53 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:53 AM Great analysis on the recent acceleration of the global warming. Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf.bsky.social Follow Has global warming accelerated? „At that rate (0.1 °C every 3 years), after we blow past 1.5 °C (this year or next?) it’ll take just 15 more years to reach 2 °C.“ tamino.wordpress.com/2025/03/23/r... Recent Global Temperature: Acceleration or Surge? RealClimate has an excellent post about how exceptional the years 2023 and 2024 were (in terms of global temperature). Here are annual averages since 1970, data from NASA: tamino.wordpress.com March 23, 2025 at 9:58 AM Everybody can reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted Thursday at 07:28 AM Share Posted Thursday at 07:28 AM On 3/21/2025 at 1:51 PM, TheClimateChanger said: A little glimpse into our collective future: TRACC/CMIP-6 is already behind the curve: On full blast from here with Med shipping sulfur emission controls taking effect this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted Thursday at 11:20 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:20 AM CERES net radiation spiked up in January reaching pre-nino levels of monthly positive imbalance. The series is noisy and the December value was relatively low. Will have to see if January is a merely a monthly outlier or signals a return to more rapid heat uptake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 37 minutes ago Share Posted 37 minutes ago New record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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