Global Average Temperature 2024

[bdgwx]

It is too early to make any definitive conclusions, but it does look like we could be starting to pull away from the old CMIP3 RCP 4.5 prediction.

[Typhoon Tip]

What's the heat like south of the equator so far this djf ? 

[bluewave]

https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/

However, the warming spike in 2023/2024 appears to have deviated significantly from the previous trend. If we were to assume that global warming was continuing at the same rate as during the 50-year period 1970-2019, then the 2023/2024 excursion would be by far the largest deviation from that trend, with only a roughly 1-in-100 chance of occurring solely due to natural variability.

While 1-in-100 chance events do sometimes occur, we consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than expected, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.

 

[dseagull]

What can we expect to happen now that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement? 

 

More of the same?   World ends in 10 years?   Think people will stop buying Teslas, now that everyone thinks Elon musk is a Nazi?   What about the pause on offshore wind?

 

Are we doomed? 

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/

However, the warming spike in 2023/2024 appears to have deviated significantly from the previous trend. If we were to assume that global warming was continuing at the same rate as during the 50-year period 1970-2019, then the 2023/2024 excursion would be by far the largest deviation from that trend, with only a roughly 1-in-100 chance of occurring solely due to natural variability.

While 1-in-100 chance events do sometimes occur, we consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than expected, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.

 

 

Yes, its clear that warming has accelerated compared to the linear trend from 1970 to 2019 (or 2010). One implication is that our climate future will happen sooner than anticipated. For instance, using the old linear trend 1.5C would have been reached in the late 2040s. Instead we exceeded 1.5C last year and will exceed 1.5C on average in the near future. Means that the physical and man-made world will be increasingly out of sync with the climate.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, dseagull said:

What can we expect to happen now that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement? 

 

More of the same?   World ends in 10 years?   Think people will stop buying Teslas, now that everyone thinks Elon musk is a Nazi?   What about the pause on offshore wind?

 

Are we doomed? 

hopefully this line of questioning is for sarcastic jest -

[etudiant]

16 hours ago, dseagull said:

What can we expect to happen now that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement? 

 

More of the same?   World ends in 10 years?   Think people will stop buying Teslas, now that everyone thinks Elon musk is a Nazi?   What about the pause on offshore wind?

 

Are we doomed? 

Seems to me that the Paris Climate Agreement was mainly eyewash, hence there will be no effect.

Reality is that China and India, the largest coal users by far, got a free pass for promises to get better sometime in the 2030s.

Now that the US is out, it will be business as usual, with perhaps less need to pretend to be green.

 

[chubbs]

16 hours ago, etudiant said:

Seems to me that the Paris Climate Agreement was mainly eyewash, hence there will be no effect.

Reality is that China and India, the largest coal users by far, got a free pass for promises to get better sometime in the 2030s.

Now that the US is out, it will be business as usual, with perhaps less need to pretend to be green.

 

Interesting to see the different political prospectives. I found the Trump executive orders to be contradictory and not meeting the stated objectives. If we have an energy emergency, why deep six offshore wind and light bulb and car efficiency standards. The car standards do more to lower gas prices than any drilling incentives for the depleted US resource base. That's why they are high on the oil lobby hit list (see article below).

The rest of the world, ex Russia and middle east, will continue to shift to renewable energy which will become increasingly less expensive than fossil fuels. We will hang on to oil and coal a little longer than we would have, but more importantly will fall further behind China and other countries in batteries and other key industrial technologies. At least US oil demand will not fall as fast as it would have which will make the oil barons happy. Don't expect relief at the pump though, you will still be at the mercy of OPEC and Russia for pricing.

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-oil-gas-policy-drilling-donors-3438e99e

 

[dseagull]

On 1/22/2025 at 8:23 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

hopefully this line of questioning is for sarcastic jest -

Merely for laughs and some conversation during my down season, with the work boats on the hard.  

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2025 at 2:37 PM, etudiant said:

Seems to me that the Paris Climate Agreement was mainly eyewash, hence there will be no effect.

Reality is that China and India, the largest coal users by far, got a free pass for promises to get better sometime in the 2030s.

Now that the US is out, it will be business as usual, with perhaps less need to pretend to be green.

 

Whats being ignored is how expensive fossil fuels are, they are definitely not worth it (and that ignores the obvious negative health impact they have.)  I switched to electric years ago and never looked back and anyone with an iota of intelligence would do the same.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/21/2025 at 9:45 PM, dseagull said:

What can we expect to happen now that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement? 

 

More of the same?   World ends in 10 years?   Think people will stop buying Teslas, now that everyone thinks Elon musk is a Nazi?   What about the pause on offshore wind?

 

Are we doomed? 

there is no pause on offshore wind, that happens at the state level.  Texas, a deep red state is the biggest producer of both wind and solar power and NY and NJ have both built huge offshore wind farms that aren't going anywhere.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/23/2025 at 6:35 AM, chubbs said:

Interesting to see the different political prospectives. I found the Trump executive orders to be contradictory and not meeting the stated objectives. If we have an energy emergency, why deep six offshore wind and light bulb and car efficiency standards. The car standards do more to lower gas prices than any drilling incentives for the depleted US resource base. That's why they are high on the oil lobby hit list (see article below).

The rest of the world, ex Russia and middle east, will continue to shift to renewable energy which will become increasingly less expensive than fossil fuels. We will hang on to oil and coal a little longer than we would have, but more importantly will fall further behind China and other countries in batteries and other key industrial technologies. At least US oil demand will not fall as fast as it would have which will make the oil barons happy. Don't expect relief at the pump though, you will still be at the mercy of OPEC and Russia for pricing.

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-oil-gas-policy-drilling-donors-3438e99e

 

Americans have a far lower IQ than people in those countries.  Have you seen the intelligence of foreign students compared to Americans? I mean.... it's not even close.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2025 at 2:37 PM, etudiant said:

Seems to me that the Paris Climate Agreement was mainly eyewash, hence there will be no effect.

Reality is that China and India, the largest coal users by far, got a free pass for promises to get better sometime in the 2030s.

Now that the US is out, it will be business as usual, with perhaps less need to pretend to be green.

 

those stupid climate agreements will never have an impact until we do what we did to Big Tobacco, which is ban fossil fuel lobbyists from attending these meetings.  Dirty fuel lobbyists outnumber everyone else 10:1 so it's like letting the fox into the henhouse.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2025 at 8:23 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

hopefully this line of questioning is for sarcastic jest -

it doesn't matter, he's not the problem, hypocrisy is the problem.

we need to completely remove lobbyists from the equation.

on a different note I saw that Drumpf hired a seed oil ultraprocessed food lobbyist into the administration.  Talk about hypocrisy. I hope RFK throws a fit

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2025 at 5:37 AM, chubbs said:

Yes, its clear that warming has accelerated compared to the linear trend from 1970 to 2019 (or 2010). One implication is that our climate future will happen sooner than anticipated. For instance, using the old linear trend 1.5C would have been reached in the late 2040s. Instead we exceeded 1.5C last year and will exceed 1.5C on average in the near future. Means that the physical and man-made world will be increasingly out of sync with the climate.

the best possible outcome is completely destroying society and starting from scratch

[LibertyBell]

The best thing the international community can do is isolate the United States.  No nation should allow an airplane from the United States to enter its airspace, period.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-international-community-closes-ranks-against-donald-trump-s-climate-snub/ar-AA1xQnxT?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=b36609bd12944f5f9c987ead060f348c&ei=15

Numerous world leaders criticize the course taken by the new U.S. president after formalizing the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

The international community has closed ranks following the announcement by Donald Trump of the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change signed by 195 countries in 2015. The "climate snub" by the Republican president places the second-largest global emitter of CO2 on par with countries like Iran, Yemen, and Libya.

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This is the second time Trump has withdrawn his country from the Paris Agreement, days after 2024 entered history as the hottest year ever recorded and the first to exceed the 1.5-degree increase threshold compared to the pre-industrial era.

Marina Silva, Brazil's Minister of the Environment, where the COP30 will be held in November, was among the first to respond to Trump, with the recent images of the fires in Los Angeles still fresh: "His decision goes directly against what science and common sense indicate, also turning a blind eye to the reality of extreme climate events happening in his own country."

China, the largest global emitter, also distanced itself through its Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun: "Climate change is a common challenge facing all of humanity. No country can claim to be 'unaffected' or solve the problem alone. China will actively work with all parties to address the challenges."

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During his visit to Davos, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, defended the Paris Agreement as "the best hope for all of humanity." "Europe will stay the course and continue working with all nations to protect nature and halt global warming."

One of the most forceful responses came from Canada's Minister of the Environment, Steven Guilbeault: "It is deplorable that the President of the United States has decided to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, this is not the first time. But the agreement is bigger than one country, and there are 194 others willing to continue collectively fighting climate change in the absence of the U.S."

From the United Kingdom, Energy and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband also responded to Trump with a clear warning: "I believe the transition to renewables is unstoppable. Countries that look out for their own interests will stay in the Paris Agreement because the danger lies in not moving forward."

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In a strong statement, the African Negotiators Group described Trump's decision as "a threat to global efforts to limit temperature increases" and reminded of "the historical responsibility" of the United States as one of the countries with the highest emissions.

Former Mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, responded to Trump's announcement by pledging to personally finance the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) out of fear that the U.S. may also withdraw its financial support. Bloomberg called on American governors and mayors to stand up to Trump with local action on climate change, as was done in 2017 when he first withdrew from the Paris Agreement.

The official withdrawal will not take place until a year from now, so the United States may still participate in the COP30 in Belem, where 195 countries will need to update their national contributions. Trump could even undermine it from within with the complicity of other hard-right leaders like Argentine President Javier Milei, who withdrew his delegation from COP29 in Baku as a gesture of loyalty to the U.S. president.

According to the NGO Carbon Brief, the measures that Trump can implement (with a renewed push for fossil fuels under the slogan of "drill, baby, drill") could result in an additional emission of 4,000 million metric tons of CO2 by 2030, an amount equivalent to the combined emissions of the EU and Japan for a year. The Energy Transitions Commission estimates that the actions of the Republican president could add 0.3 degrees to the global temperature rise and serve as an incentive for other countries to lower their climate commitments.
 

[bluewave]

New study finds that cloud feedbacks amplify the warming more than previously thought.

https://cpo.noaa.gov/scientists-find-cloud-feedbacks-amplify-warming-more-than-previously-thought/

Scientists find cloud feedbacks amplify warming more than previously thought 

Clouds play an important role in how much the Earth warms when greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide increase. However, scientists have struggled to determine whether low-level clouds in the tropics slow down or speed up global warming, creating uncertainty in climate predictions. A new study published in Nature and funded by the Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program adds to the growing evidence that cloud feedback is very likely to amplify warming in the climate system, rather than reduce it. 

The study found that the impact of clouds in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, two areas where low clouds are especially important, is much stronger than scientists previously thought — 71% higher. It also ruled out the possibility that tropical low clouds could have a cooling effect to offset warming. These findings narrow the uncertainty around one of the biggest unknowns in climate science and enable more accurate predictions of how much warming we might expect. This work was possible thanks to new techniques that balanced conflicting data from different regions, giving clearer answers.

The results show that Earth’s climate is likely more sensitive to rising carbon dioxide levels than many models have suggested. A stronger positive cloud feedback means faster and higher levels of warming. It also highlights the need to improve how climate models represent clouds, especially in tropical areas, to prepare better for the challenges of a changing climate. The investigators will extend the value of this study by developing and delivering a piece of software to NOAA that will diagnose issues with low cloud feedback in new versions of NOAA’s modeling systems. This will lead to improvements in NOAA models’ ability to capture appropriate levels of cloud feedback, and improvements in processes that lead to weather and climate prediction skill.

In the early 2000s, climate scientists could not say with confidence whether clouds would mitigate or amplify climate change. Some hypothesized that clouds might work to oppose a significant portion of human-caused warming by reflecting more incoming solar energy back out to space, while others hypothesized that particular changes in clouds might magnify warming by trapping more energy in the atmosphere. In 2001, NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics climate model was one of only three that simulated the type of significant positive cloud feedback we now know is likely happening. The MAPP and Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) programs are advancing cloud representation in climate models through ongoing funded projects. By studying tropical cloud processes and precipitation and improving how they are represented across scales, these efforts are strengthening predictions and providing a clearer picture of our climate future.

Read the study »

[paulm]

Impressive to see 2025 even competitive with 2024, let alone running slightly above 2024 for most of January. Will be a close call for whether we finish as the warmest January on record in ERA5 or not.

[donsutherland1]

On 1/26/2025 at 8:28 AM, paulm said:

Impressive to see 2025 even competitive with 2024, let alone running slightly above 2024 for most of January. Will be a close call for whether we finish as the warmest January on record in ERA5 or not.

The warmest January is very likely. Currently, 2025 is running 0.14C ahead of 2024. That edge will be very difficult to erase with the five remaining days (on ERA-5).

[paulm]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The warmest January is very likely. Currently, 2025 is running 0.14C ahead of 2024. That edge will be very difficult to erase with the five remaining days (on ERA-5).

Thanks - Copernicus now has daily data for ERA5 through the 22nd available to download, so a few extra days left to go due to data postprocessing, but a record now looks likely, as you've said.

Remarkable to see us edge 2024 given the ENSO flip.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The warmest January is very likely. Currently, 2025 is running 0.14C ahead of 2024. That edge will be very difficult to erase with the five remaining days (on ERA-5).

How is it so warm when its been so cold and historically snowy in the Deep South?

Do we have a population weighed temperature statistic for how the temperatures performed where people actually live (versus, let's say Siberia or Antarctica where virtually no one lives?)

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How is it so warm when its been so cold and historically snowy in the Deep South?

Do we have a population weighed temperature statistic for how the temperatures performed where people actually live (versus, let's say Siberia or Antarctica where virtually no one lives?)

 

850 mb temperatures for the airmass a week ago were as cold as -37C in the upper Midwest! That’s not seen too often. 

[roardog]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How is it so warm when its been so cold and historically snowy in the Deep South?

Do we have a population weighed temperature statistic for how the temperatures performed where people actually live (versus, let's say Siberia or Antarctica where virtually no one lives?)

 

Remember too we’re talking tenths of a degree with global temps. The planet isn’t so warm that you’re not going to get extreme cold in places. If the average was that warm, we would all be in big trouble. 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How is it so warm when its been so cold and historically snowy in the Deep South?

Do we have a population weighed temperature statistic for how the temperatures performed where people actually live (versus, let's say Siberia or Antarctica where virtually no one lives?)

 

That's a global temperature. Numerous parts of the world have been experiencing exceptional heat. Indeed, the cold air mass moving into the NYC area for tomorrow originated in northern Russia. Normally, it would be frigid, but that area has been seeing record warmth, so the cold won't be severe when it gets here.

[chubbs]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How is it so warm when its been so cold and historically snowy in the Deep South?

Do we have a population weighed temperature statistic for how the temperatures performed where people actually live (versus, let's say Siberia or Antarctica where virtually no one lives?)

 

Here's a map of  Jan temperature anomalies through Jan 25 (JRA reanalysis). Very cold in SE quadrant of US, but there are several very warm areas scattered around the planet to balance. For northern hemisphere land, Eurasia and Canada more than offset a cold US.

The JRA record for Jan is 0.64 set last year, currently 0.71 and likely to be broken this year. Very unusual to break a winter monthly average temperature record in a La Nina, not sure it has ever happened before.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's a global temperature. Numerous parts of the world have been experiencing exceptional heat. Indeed, the cold air mass moving into the NYC area for tomorrow originated in northern Russia. Normally, it would be frigid, but that area has been seeing record warmth, so the cold won't be severe when it gets here.

Siberia has been getting big winter heatwaves for a few years, +10 or higher departures (in C!).  Was this heat wave on the same scale as the one they had a few years ago, Don?

[donsutherland1]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Siberia has been getting big winter heatwaves for a few years, +10 or higher departures (in C!).  Was this heat wave on the same scale as the one they had a few years ago, Don?

It was intense, but nowhere near the duration of the one in 2020 (essentially a six-month heatwave).

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

Here's a map of  Jan temperature anomalies through Jan 25 (JRA reanalysis). Very cold in SE quadrant of US, but there are several very warm areas scattered around the planet to balance. For northern hemisphere land, Eurasia and Canada more than offset a cold US.

The JRA record for Jan is 0.64 set last year, currently 0.71 and likely to be broken this year. Very unusual to break a winter monthly average temperature record in a La Nina, not sure it has ever happened before.

Thanks, I see large areas of warmth over Canada and Europe too.  For a few years they've been talking about decreasing snowcover in the Alps and a shortage of water there because of it.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That's a global temperature. Numerous parts of the world have been experiencing exceptional heat. Indeed, the cold air mass moving into the NYC area for tomorrow originated in northern Russia. Normally, it would be frigid, but that area has been seeing record warmth, so the cold won't be severe when it gets here.

Yes I see the projected monthly temperature for January at NYC has warmed well above 30.0..... the projection was as low as 29.4 just last week.