Global Average Temperature 2024

[bdgwx]

It is too early to make any definitive conclusions, but it does look like we could be starting to pull away from the old CMIP3 RCP 4.5 prediction.

[Typhoon Tip]

What's the heat like south of the equator so far this djf ? 

[bluewave]

https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/

However, the warming spike in 2023/2024 appears to have deviated significantly from the previous trend. If we were to assume that global warming was continuing at the same rate as during the 50-year period 1970-2019, then the 2023/2024 excursion would be by far the largest deviation from that trend, with only a roughly 1-in-100 chance of occurring solely due to natural variability.

While 1-in-100 chance events do sometimes occur, we consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than expected, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.

 

[dseagull]

What can we expect to happen now that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement? 

 

More of the same?   World ends in 10 years?   Think people will stop buying Teslas, now that everyone thinks Elon musk is a Nazi?   What about the pause on offshore wind?

 

Are we doomed? 

[chubbs]

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

 

https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/

However, the warming spike in 2023/2024 appears to have deviated significantly from the previous trend. If we were to assume that global warming was continuing at the same rate as during the 50-year period 1970-2019, then the 2023/2024 excursion would be by far the largest deviation from that trend, with only a roughly 1-in-100 chance of occurring solely due to natural variability.

While 1-in-100 chance events do sometimes occur, we consider it more likely that the recent rate of global warming has been larger than expected, exceeding both the previous trend and what would be expected when considering only the observed pattern of greenhouse gas emissions.

 

 

Yes, its clear that warming has accelerated compared to the linear trend from 1970 to 2019 (or 2010). One implication is that our climate future will happen sooner than anticipated. For instance, using the old linear trend 1.5C would have been reached in the late 2040s. Instead we exceeded 1.5C last year and will exceed 1.5C on average in the near future. Means that the physical and man-made world will be increasingly out of sync with the climate.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, dseagull said:

What can we expect to happen now that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement? 

 

More of the same?   World ends in 10 years?   Think people will stop buying Teslas, now that everyone thinks Elon musk is a Nazi?   What about the pause on offshore wind?

 

Are we doomed? 

hopefully this line of questioning is for sarcastic jest -

[etudiant]

16 hours ago, dseagull said:

What can we expect to happen now that the U.S. pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement? 

 

More of the same?   World ends in 10 years?   Think people will stop buying Teslas, now that everyone thinks Elon musk is a Nazi?   What about the pause on offshore wind?

 

Are we doomed? 

Seems to me that the Paris Climate Agreement was mainly eyewash, hence there will be no effect.

Reality is that China and India, the largest coal users by far, got a free pass for promises to get better sometime in the 2030s.

Now that the US is out, it will be business as usual, with perhaps less need to pretend to be green.

 

[chubbs]

16 hours ago, etudiant said:

Seems to me that the Paris Climate Agreement was mainly eyewash, hence there will be no effect.

Reality is that China and India, the largest coal users by far, got a free pass for promises to get better sometime in the 2030s.

Now that the US is out, it will be business as usual, with perhaps less need to pretend to be green.

 

Interesting to see the different political prospectives. I found the Trump executive orders to be contradictory and not meeting the stated objectives. If we have an energy emergency, why deep six offshore wind and light bulb and car efficiency standards. The car standards do more to lower gas prices than any drilling incentives for the depleted US resource base. That's why they are high on the oil lobby hit list (see article below).

The rest of the world, ex Russia and middle east, will continue to shift to renewable energy which will become increasingly less expensive than fossil fuels. We will hang on to oil and coal a little longer than we would have, but more importantly will fall further behind China and other countries in batteries and other key industrial technologies. At least US oil demand will not fall as fast as it would have which will make the oil barons happy. Don't expect relief at the pump though, you will still be at the mercy of OPEC and Russia for pricing.

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/trump-oil-gas-policy-drilling-donors-3438e99e