chubbs Posted May 12 Share Posted May 12 GISS was another record in April. Probably, getting close to a peak in the 12-month average, May is the last month with before temperatures surged last year. In hindsight the 2015-16 nino kicked us into a new global temperature range. Guessing this nino will also, but we will see. This nino is weaker than 2015./16. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted May 16 Share Posted May 16 It sounds like Dr. Hansen believes this is the peak of this El Niño cycle. Although it’s not all good news, as he also thinks we have surpassed 1.5C for all practical purposes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 SST including May to-date. The fall off from the nino peak continues, but the ride down is much slower than the ride up. The fall off is In-line with past ninos so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 5 hours ago, chubbs said: SST including May to-date. The fall off from the nino peak continues, but the ride down is much slower than the ride up. The fall off is In-line with past ninos so far. you know I think it'd be interesting to see this curve back to 1750 ... maybe 1700. 1750 is the widely/historically noted beginning of the IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: you know I think it'd be interesting to see this curve back to 1750 ... maybe 1700. 1750 is the widely/historically noted beginning of the IR. A couple of SST datasets go back to 1850. Some ups and downs between 1850 and the 1982 start of the satellite dataset I posted, but only a small increase. Most of the SST rise has occurred in the past 50 years and even that rise has been back-end loaded, with a couple of nino jumps in the past decade. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 1 minute ago, bluewave said: A new paper seems to back up the idea that the abrupt reduction marine aerosols is accelerating the warming rate. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01442-3#Fig2Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of Wm−2averaged over the global ocean. The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020 s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020 s anomalously warm. The forcing is equivalent in magnitude to 80% of the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 UAH dropped in May, but remains near the peak. UAH thinks this nino packs an unusually strong warming punch and the warmth has stayed near the peak longer than other ninos. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 2 hours ago, chubbs said: UAH dropped in May, but remains near the peak. UAH thinks this nino packs an unusually strong warming punch and the warmth has stayed near the peak longer than other ninos. Just my personal hunch/hypothesis but ... the Earth's various complexly interacting forces creates a kind of 'elasticity' in the system, where the system recoils after exertion has been forcing deviation from era-relevant norms. We observed a multi-year Nina ... It suddenly evacuated a year ago February ( centered more so upon - ), and immediately by mid summer everything rebounds, and like all rebound mechanics ...they tend to go above, before coming back down, ...overcompensating a little...before finally coming to a rest. The atmosphere in all directions and heights soared, BEFORE the El Nino could possibly have been causal. Then, the El Nino limps onto the seen a month+ later, only some 60 or so % of the magnitude that it was modeled to be. This is very speculative and sort of 'artistic' as an impression. But plugging a taut rubber band? So we had that 4 year Nina, the Nino may not have really represented a true pan-systemic globally integrating El Nino, but a rebound span of time. Then, as it then recoils, the models may now be 'overstating' a new Nina .. this goes on until - This is all predicated on the assumption that new mechanics won't get involved that break up this immediate cause-and-effect sequencing - in fact it's likely that happens and obfuscates.. but oh well. I wonder if the impending Nina is weaker than this last Nino, which was both weaker than the preceding 4 year Nina but also was overstated by modeling prior to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 2 hours ago, chubbs said: UAH dropped in May, but remains near the peak. UAH thinks this nino packs an unusually strong warming punch and the warmth has stayed near the peak longer than other ninos. Makes sense that the warming is lasting past the peak of other El Ninos since the warming also began earlier last year before the peak of previous El Ninos. So more conformation that there is something different is occurring with global temperatures surrounding this El Nino than previous ones. It’s possible we could see another record this June with recent global temperature rise the last few days. https://x.com/hausfath/status/1797658903297310756 We saw a notable spike in global temperatures in the final week of the month. If they persist, it makes it more likely we may see the hottest June on record as well: 11:57 AM · Jun 3, 2024 · 3,679 Views Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 https://phys.org/news/2024-05-delhi-limits-human-hot-countries.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 The global average dewpoint for May 2024 was the highest for any May on record. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 15 minutes ago, bdgwx said: The global average dewpoint for May 2024 was the highest for any May on record. This is why the change in wet bulb temperature is probably a better measure of the added heat stress from climate change. Dry bulb temperatures have risen, but so have dewpoints. So wet bulb temperature readings would capture both that elevated dry bulb temperature and added absolute humidity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: This is why the change in wet bulb temperature is probably a better measure of the added heat stress from climate change. Dry bulb temperatures have risen, but so have dewpoints. So wet bulb temperature readings would capture both that elevated dry bulb temperature and added absolute humidity. Yep. [Song et al. 2022] use equivalent potential temperature to capture the contribution from latent heat similar to using dewpoint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 19 minutes ago, bdgwx said: The global average dewpoint for May 2024 was the highest for any May on record. Precipitable water from ERA5. Another metric that this nino has outperformed on. Not surprising considering warmth of tropical oceans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 On 5/31/2024 at 11:01 AM, TheClimateChanger said: He can repeat it all he wants. He was wrong about the Saharan dust last year and, imo is wrong to downplay NH shipping aerosols. It's still a point of contention and declaring it doesn't make it so. Much respect to Mike, who helped push the issue into the mainstream in the first place and went a bit out on the limb in the 90s and took an avalanche of unjustified shit for it from deniers. Methinks that's made him more conservative in general. I can't say I blame him given all of the nasty stuff that's happened. But definitely less likely to take risks and make a gutsy call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 On 6/6/2024 at 12:40 PM, csnavywx said: He can repeat it all he wants. He was wrong about the Saharan dust last year and, imo is wrong to downplay NH shipping aerosols. It's still a point of contention and declaring it doesn't make it so. Much respect to Mike, who helped push the issue into the mainstream in the first place and went a bit out on the limb in the 90s and took an avalanche of unjustified shit for it from deniers. Methinks that's made him more conservative in general. I can't say I blame him given all of the nasty stuff that's happened. But definitely less likely to take risks and make a gutsy call. This is probably a bit outer field relative to this discussion stream but ... I've noticed a coherent difference in the behavior of regional flora this spring. Namely ...healthier. Best flowering shrub species year in probably decades frankly, at a regional scale here in the NE. My family in Michigan also reported to me ..well asked me really, what's up with that. I've also noticed a much, much denser airborne and ground deposition of pollen this year than I have anecdotally observed in quite some time. Now, I don't know what is causing that ... but I was toying with the notion that lowering toxic aerosols(...even if the ppu mass was always considered too minor or not ...) might have something to do with it. I haven't noticed much else different other than the sky - which it, too, is a more unadulterated blue... I'm willing, however, to leave that out of the supposition, though, because it's probably impossible to assume/parse out cloud versus particular aerosol contribution to the sky purity. I'm a big fan of cause-and-effect, and I am also quite suspicious of coincidences. Intellectually ...yeah, we have to vet everything through a scientific process that considering the enormous scale of a planetary system, will probably take a long, long time to prove. But my heart of hearts keeps telling me that entire planetary system warm burst, and subsequent hugely proficient floral biology ... might be indirectly/causally related? Just and idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 No surprises here as the warmth following the peak of the El Nino is lingering longer than previous events just like the temperature rise last year began earlier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 28 Author Share Posted June 28 Hansen's latest monthly email is now available. https://mailchi.mp/caa/the-world-will-cool-off-a-bit-and-other-good-news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 15 hours ago, bdgwx said: Hansen's latest monthly email is now available. https://mailchi.mp/caa/the-world-will-cool-off-a-bit-and-other-good-news A little surprised by the quote below. This year seems like a close call vs 2023 to me. Its warm this year; but, last year was super warm for a developing nino. "By the end of 2024, global mean temperature will have declined significantly, but the annual 2024 global temperature should readily exceed the prior (2023) record." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted July 3 Share Posted July 3 UAH in at +0.80C, which might not sound too bad but you’ve got to love that choice of base period. Those of us who were alive in the 1990s know it was considered to be unusually hot, with all the deniers saying it’s only a cyclical warm period. That so-called cyclical warm period now looks like an unusually cold period on UAH, outside of the super El Niño. I guess it doesn’t look so bad when you turn one of the hottest decades on record into a cold period. You can’t make this stuff up. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 7 Share Posted July 7 On 7/3/2024 at 10:24 AM, TheClimateChanger said: This chart compares UAH6 to the previous version, UAH5. The UAH6 warming rate has increased to almost match the UAH5 rate at roughly 0.15C per decade. When UAH6 first came out in 2015 the initial warming rate was only 0.106 per decade (faint blue line). Quite an acceleration in warming, surprised Roy hasn't mentioned it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 https://phys.org/news/2024-07-june-hottest-high-eu-climate.html "..Every month since June 2023 has eclipsed its own temperature record in a 13-month streak of unprecedented global heat, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said..." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 8 Share Posted July 8 The record rainfall in places like the Northeast has probably been the most significant aspect of this record global temperature and moisture spike over the last year. Data for July 1, 2023 through July 8, 2024Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 86.17 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 84.54 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 83.78 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 83.30 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 83.03 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 82.84 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 82.82 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 81.99 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 81.56 NY WEST POINT COOP 81.33 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 81.21 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 81.18 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 81.14 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 81.02 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 80.80 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 80.60 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 80.45 CT NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 80.44 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 10 Share Posted July 10 The nino put us on the elevator up, and the escalator down. Still too early though to see what floor we are going to end up on. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Latest blog from Tamino on how fast it is warming. Chart below adjusts temperatures for natural factors: enso, volcanoes and solar. Last dot is year-to-date. The enso adjustment Tamino is using appears to work for the cooling phase of enso cycles but not recent warming phases. 2015 and 2023 in particular step-up more than expected, giving the chart a staircase look. Not a stairway to heaven either. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/07/10/how-fast/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 8 hours ago, chubbs said: Latest blog from Tamino on how fast it is warming. Chart below adjusts temperatures for natural factors: enso, volcanoes and solar. Last dot is year-to-date. The enso adjustment Tamino is using appears to work for the cooling phase of enso cycles but not recent warming phases. 2015 and 2023 in particular step-up more than expected, giving the chart a staircase look. Not a stairway to heaven either. https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/07/10/how-fast/ Nobody yet knows what part of the big 2023 step up was due to Hunga Tonga. Plus HT effects are projected to linger for years with only a slow reversal occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Nobody yet knows what part of the big 2023 step up was due to Hunga Tonga. Plus HT effects are projected to linger for years with only a slow reversal occurring. There is at least one study that found a slight cooling effect in the Southern Hemisphere which only lasted through the end of. 2023. https://d197for5662m48.cloudfront.net/documents/publicationstatus/203287/preprint_pdf/44b2ee49f72f9858308861dbd4a9f8ed.pdf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted July 18 Share Posted July 18 5 hours ago, GaWx said: Nobody yet knows what part of the big 2023 step up was due to Hunga Tonga. Plus HT effects are projected to linger for years with only a slow reversal occurring. The paper Bluewave linked is the best I have seen. Would expect any cooling to flip to a very small warming as water persists in the stratosphere. We'll see what future papers say about 2023 and HT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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