JoshM Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian and GFS both came in colder, It's miller time! Seems like the Miller B has turned into a Miller A 0Z GFS holding onto some sub freezing temps in CAD areas now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 UK shifted 50 to 75 miles SE. It now has a lot more wintry precip in WNC. Basically none at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 GFS ZR Map, seeing some 0.25 down to ~ shelby, nc Canadian says lights out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 FWIW (I know, not much) , 6z NAM coming in colder than 0z. Dewpoints right before precip arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS ZR Map, seeing some 0.25 down to ~ shelby, nc Canadian says lights out Poling 1” totals in Rutherford. Dang . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 LETS GET IT ROLLING. I WANT THE HOT LIGHT ON AFTER 12Z LIKE WERE RUNNING A DADGUM KRISPY KREME 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ICE totals going up on the NAM. I do think some of it will be sleet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 FYI, It seems the precip type maps for the RGEM and Canadian are broken, at least on Pivotal. It's showing ZR with temps in the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS is light on precip but does show more snow in the mountains than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Has some ZR too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I love shiny tree tops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 0z NAM ZR Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 High Res NAM a tick colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS is a strung out mess. About to put this one to bed even though my expectations were super low even for mountain and northern foothill areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The 6z Euro ticks colder and would bring a few hours of light ZR to the piedmont. One thing working in our favor is it will be quiet cold tonight and tomorrow and should drop below freezing well before onset. Sometimes we do well in these setups even with a retreating high. However, we will almost certainly go above freezing by mid morning at the latest, so hopefully we can get a pretty scene on the trees anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 19 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: I love shiny tree tops That's over my head. Hopefully we keep it there and off power lines and roads! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Love that NW corner dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Seems that the Euro and GFS are converging on this deal, maybe not the numbers tho'.... Anyone else see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GSP says I get a 33 deg rain .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday: An active pattern for the short term as surface high pressure is nudged offshore and a series of shortwaves swing through the region. Starting off friday night, a closed upper low over the Central Plains lifts toward the northeast leaving behind a shortwave trough approaching the Appalachians. An approaching upper jet will assist with height falls ahead of the shortwaves along with a strong low level jet advecting moisture into the region Friday night. This will set the stage for precipitation to ramp up over the Carolinas. One of the key features during this time is the influence of the warm layer brought in from the LLJ and creating a deep warm nose. As moisture aloft moves in, wetbulb temps will cool the column of air and translate a saturated profile toward the surface by late Friday night. Meanwhile, the remnant high pressure to the east sets up an in-situ wedge of colder air ahead of the precip. How much cold air remains in place at the onset of precip is not entirely certain, but should be enough to allow for near freezing temps well before daybreak. The biggest concern for this storm system is the amount and location for where snow, rain, and freezing rain will take place. At the current time given the latest guidance, ice accretions of 0.05-0.24 are likely along the near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and NC Foothills. Ice accumulations have increased in the Henderson/Transylvania counties that could be locally higher than 0.25 inches. A Winter Storm Watch was issued for the Henderson through Caldwell/Alexander counties and expanded to include all of Transylvania, Polk and Rutherford. In SC, light ice up to 0.10 of an inch could occur along and north of I-85 from Spartanburg to Cherokee county, and into NC with 0.01-0.09 toward the south. Noting the anticipated deep warm nose, snow is less of a concern, but the NC mountains could see a trace up to 2 inches. Outside of the mountains, a cold rain is most likely precip type. Now, the challenges to this forecast come in the way of warm temperatures and the amount of moisture that can return to the area. At this time, temperatures from the NBM and CONSRaw show a swath of at or below freezing temps along the Escarpment. Given the in-situ wedge in place prior to precip arrival, temps are likely to reach these values. Freezing rain chances would decrease if surface temps are a degree or two warmer than current model guidance, increasing the chance for rain to become the dominate p-type. However, current guidance keeps temps at or just below freezing along the I-85 corridor and north. Confidence is increasing from moderate to high that some amount of FZRA will occur in this region, before transitioning over the rain after daybreak. With the current totals being near or at warning criteria, the current watch would most likely be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning at a later forecast issuance and a likely Winter Weather Advisory issued for additional counties. Freezing rain should transition to rain around noon on Saturday, with rain moving out of the area from west to east by Saturday night. After this wave passes, a brief stint of NW flow snow is possible if any shallow moisture can remain in place along the TN/NC border, with a trace at best is expected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 47 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: GSP says I get a 33 deg rain .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Thursday: An active pattern for the short term as surface high pressure is nudged offshore and a series of shortwaves swing through the region. Starting off friday night, a closed upper low over the Central Plains lifts toward the northeast leaving behind a shortwave trough approaching the Appalachians. An approaching upper jet will assist with height falls ahead of the shortwaves along with a strong low level jet advecting moisture into the region Friday night. This will set the stage for precipitation to ramp up over the Carolinas. One of the key features during this time is the influence of the warm layer brought in from the LLJ and creating a deep warm nose. As moisture aloft moves in, wetbulb temps will cool the column of air and translate a saturated profile toward the surface by late Friday night. Meanwhile, the remnant high pressure to the east sets up an in-situ wedge of colder air ahead of the precip. How much cold air remains in place at the onset of precip is not entirely certain, but should be enough to allow for near freezing temps well before daybreak. The biggest concern for this storm system is the amount and location for where snow, rain, and freezing rain will take place. At the current time given the latest guidance, ice accretions of 0.05-0.24 are likely along the near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and NC Foothills. Ice accumulations have increased in the Henderson/Transylvania counties that could be locally higher than 0.25 inches. A Winter Storm Watch was issued for the Henderson through Caldwell/Alexander counties and expanded to include all of Transylvania, Polk and Rutherford. In SC, light ice up to 0.10 of an inch could occur along and north of I-85 from Spartanburg to Cherokee county, and into NC with 0.01-0.09 toward the south. Noting the anticipated deep warm nose, snow is less of a concern, but the NC mountains could see a trace up to 2 inches. Outside of the mountains, a cold rain is most likely precip type. Now, the challenges to this forecast come in the way of warm temperatures and the amount of moisture that can return to the area. At this time, temperatures from the NBM and CONSRaw show a swath of at or below freezing temps along the Escarpment. Given the in-situ wedge in place prior to precip arrival, temps are likely to reach these values. Freezing rain chances would decrease if surface temps are a degree or two warmer than current model guidance, increasing the chance for rain to become the dominate p-type. However, current guidance keeps temps at or just below freezing along the I-85 corridor and north. Confidence is increasing from moderate to high that some amount of FZRA will occur in this region, before transitioning over the rain after daybreak. With the current totals being near or at warning criteria, the current watch would most likely be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning at a later forecast issuance and a likely Winter Weather Advisory issued for additional counties. Freezing rain should transition to rain around noon on Saturday, with rain moving out of the area from west to east by Saturday night. After this wave passes, a brief stint of NW flow snow is possible if any shallow moisture can remain in place along the TN/NC border, with a trace at best is expected. Go figure, its always 33 or 34 and rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 New HRRR does start out as more snow and sleet than earlier runs. It's probably wrong but let's see if it starts a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hi Res and regular NAM still very icy for escarpment areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I will take it! https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/YouTube/brief.pdf ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of the foothills of North Carolina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 AccuWeather is calling for a trace to a millimeter of zr. Not sure if there's really a difference, but seems about right! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NWS special message 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I am debating if it will be worth it for some ice shots to drive over to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock. It is certainly a marginal setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am debating if it will be worth it for some ice shots to drive over to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock. It is certainly a marginal setup. Might as well drive a little further up to fancy gap. Should be a couple degrees colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 51 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Might as well drive a little further up to fancy gap. Should be a couple degrees colder. Yeah that is true. I am going to follow today's trends and make a call on go or no go. You really need to get to that 0.2 inch plus territory to make pics worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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