January 6 - 7 Storm Potential

[JoshM]

Canadian and GFS both came in colder, It's miller time! Seems like the Miller B has turned into a Miller A

 

0Z GFS holding onto some sub freezing temps in CAD areas now

[wncsnow]

UK shifted 50 to 75 miles SE. It now has a lot more wintry precip in WNC. Basically none at 12Z. 

[JoshM]

GFS ZR Map, seeing some 0.25 down to ~ shelby, nc

 

 

Canadian says lights out

 

[JoshM]

FWIW (I know, not much) , 6z NAM coming in colder than 0z. Dewpoints right before precip arrives

[strongwxnc]

GFS ZR Map, seeing some 0.25 down to ~ shelby, nc
 

 
Canadian says lights out
 

Poling 1” totals in Rutherford. Dang


.

[BooneWX]

LETS GET IT ROLLING. I WANT THE HOT LIGHT ON AFTER 12Z LIKE WERE RUNNING A DADGUM KRISPY KREME

[wncsnow]

ICE totals going up on the NAM. I do think some of it will be sleet though. 

[olafminesaw]

FYI, It seems the precip type maps for the RGEM and Canadian are broken, at least on Pivotal. It's showing ZR with temps in the upper 30s.

[wncsnow]

GFS is light on precip but does show more snow in the mountains than previous runs

[wncsnow]

Has some ZR too

[buckeyefan1]

I love shiny tree tops  

[JoshM]

0z NAM ZR Map

[JoshM]

High Res NAM a tick colder

[wncsnow]

GFS is a strung out mess. About to put this one to bed even though my expectations were super low even for mountain and northern foothill areas. 

[olafminesaw]

The 6z Euro ticks colder and would bring a few hours of light ZR to the piedmont. One thing working in our favor is it will be quiet cold tonight and tomorrow and should drop below freezing well before onset. Sometimes we do well in these setups even with a retreating high. However, we will almost certainly go above freezing by mid morning at the latest, so hopefully we can get a pretty scene on the trees anyway

 

[KChuck]

19 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I love shiny tree tops  

That's over my head. Hopefully we keep it there and off power lines and roads! 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[buckeyefan1]

Love that NW corner dry slot     

[WeatherHawk]

Seems that the Euro and GFS are converging on this deal, maybe not the numbers tho'.... Anyone else see that? 

[buckeyefan1]

GSP says I get a 33 deg rain 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday: An active pattern for the short term as
surface high pressure is nudged offshore and a series of shortwaves
swing through the region. Starting off friday night, a closed upper
low over the Central Plains lifts toward the northeast leaving
behind a shortwave trough approaching the Appalachians. An
approaching upper jet will assist with height falls ahead of the
shortwaves along with a strong low level jet advecting moisture into
the region Friday night. This will set the stage for precipitation
to ramp up over the Carolinas. One of the key features during this
time is the influence of the warm layer brought in from the LLJ and
creating a deep warm nose. As moisture aloft moves in, wetbulb temps
will cool the column of air and translate a saturated profile toward
the surface by late Friday night. Meanwhile, the remnant high
pressure to the east sets up an in-situ wedge of colder air ahead of
the precip. How much cold air remains in place at the onset of
precip is not entirely certain, but should be enough to allow for
near freezing temps well before daybreak.

The biggest concern for this storm system is the amount and location
for where snow, rain, and freezing rain will take place. At the
current time given the latest guidance, ice accretions of 0.05-0.24
are likely along the near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and NC
Foothills. Ice accumulations have increased in the
Henderson/Transylvania counties that could be locally higher than
0.25 inches. A Winter Storm Watch was issued for the Henderson
through Caldwell/Alexander counties and expanded to include all of
Transylvania, Polk and Rutherford. In SC, light ice up to 0.10 of an
inch could occur along and north of I-85 from Spartanburg to
Cherokee county, and into NC with 0.01-0.09 toward the south. Noting
the anticipated deep warm nose, snow is less of a concern, but the
NC mountains could see a trace up to 2 inches. Outside of the
mountains, a cold rain is most likely precip type. Now, the
challenges to this forecast come in the way of warm temperatures and
the amount of moisture that can return to the area. At this time,
temperatures from the NBM and CONSRaw show a swath of at or below
freezing temps along the Escarpment. Given the in-situ wedge in
place prior to precip arrival, temps are likely to reach these
values. Freezing rain chances would decrease if surface temps are a
degree or two warmer than current model guidance, increasing the
chance for rain to become the dominate p-type. However, current
guidance keeps temps at or just below freezing along the I-85
corridor and north. Confidence is increasing from moderate to high
that some amount of FZRA will occur in this region, before
transitioning over the rain after daybreak. With the current totals
being near or at warning criteria, the current watch would most
likely be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning at a later forecast
issuance and a likely Winter Weather Advisory issued for additional
counties. Freezing rain should transition to rain around noon on
Saturday, with rain moving out of the area from west to east by
Saturday night. After this wave passes, a brief stint of NW flow
snow is possible if any shallow moisture can remain in place along
the TN/NC border, with a trace at best is expected.

[Tacoma]

47 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

GSP says I get a 33 deg rain 

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Thursday: An active pattern for the short term as
surface high pressure is nudged offshore and a series of shortwaves
swing through the region. Starting off friday night, a closed upper
low over the Central Plains lifts toward the northeast leaving
behind a shortwave trough approaching the Appalachians. An
approaching upper jet will assist with height falls ahead of the
shortwaves along with a strong low level jet advecting moisture into
the region Friday night. This will set the stage for precipitation
to ramp up over the Carolinas. One of the key features during this
time is the influence of the warm layer brought in from the LLJ and
creating a deep warm nose. As moisture aloft moves in, wetbulb temps
will cool the column of air and translate a saturated profile toward
the surface by late Friday night. Meanwhile, the remnant high
pressure to the east sets up an in-situ wedge of colder air ahead of
the precip. How much cold air remains in place at the onset of
precip is not entirely certain, but should be enough to allow for
near freezing temps well before daybreak.

The biggest concern for this storm system is the amount and location
for where snow, rain, and freezing rain will take place. At the
current time given the latest guidance, ice accretions of 0.05-0.24
are likely along the near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and NC
Foothills. Ice accumulations have increased in the
Henderson/Transylvania counties that could be locally higher than
0.25 inches. A Winter Storm Watch was issued for the Henderson
through Caldwell/Alexander counties and expanded to include all of
Transylvania, Polk and Rutherford. In SC, light ice up to 0.10 of an
inch could occur along and north of I-85 from Spartanburg to
Cherokee county, and into NC with 0.01-0.09 toward the south. Noting
the anticipated deep warm nose, snow is less of a concern, but the
NC mountains could see a trace up to 2 inches. Outside of the
mountains, a cold rain is most likely precip type. Now, the
challenges to this forecast come in the way of warm temperatures and
the amount of moisture that can return to the area. At this time,
temperatures from the NBM and CONSRaw show a swath of at or below
freezing temps along the Escarpment. Given the in-situ wedge in
place prior to precip arrival, temps are likely to reach these
values. Freezing rain chances would decrease if surface temps are a
degree or two warmer than current model guidance, increasing the
chance for rain to become the dominate p-type. However, current
guidance keeps temps at or just below freezing along the I-85
corridor and north. Confidence is increasing from moderate to high
that some amount of FZRA will occur in this region, before
transitioning over the rain after daybreak. With the current totals
being near or at warning criteria, the current watch would most
likely be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning at a later forecast
issuance and a likely Winter Weather Advisory issued for additional
counties. Freezing rain should transition to rain around noon on
Saturday, with rain moving out of the area from west to east by
Saturday night. After this wave passes, a brief stint of NW flow
snow is possible if any shallow moisture can remain in place along
the TN/NC border, with a trace at best is expected.

Go figure, its always 33 or 34 and rain.

[wncsnow]

New HRRR does start out as more snow and sleet than earlier runs. It's probably wrong but let's see if it starts a trend. 

[wncsnow]

Hi Res and regular NAM still very icy for escarpment areas. 

[strongwxnc]

I will take it!

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/YouTube/brief.pdf

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of
  an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of the foothills of North Carolina.

[olafminesaw]

AccuWeather is calling for a trace to a millimeter of zr. Not sure if there's really a difference, but seems about right!

[WinstonSalemArlington]

NWS special message

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

I am debating if it will be worth it for some ice shots to drive over to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock. It is certainly a marginal setup.

[olafminesaw]

23 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am debating if it will be worth it for some ice shots to drive over to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock. It is certainly a marginal setup.

Might as well drive a little further up to fancy gap. Should be a couple degrees colder.

[eyewall]

51 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Might as well drive a little further up to fancy gap. Should be a couple degrees colder.

Yeah that is true. I am going to follow today's trends and make a call on go or no go. You really need to get to that 0.2 inch plus territory to make pics worthwhile.