fluoronium Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 It's weird to see such a lack of cold air to the NW of such a strong January low. Now I personally love wet snow with low ratios, but I fear getting rained out on some of it. I told myself I wouldn't get so involved in winter model watching after the December 2022 bust here, yet I've been looking at every model run for days on this storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, fluoronium said: It's weird to see such a lack of cold air to the NW of such a strong January low. Now I personally love wet snow with low ratios, but I fear getting rained out on some of it. I told myself I wouldn't get so involved in winter model watching after the December 2022 bust here, yet I've been looking at every model run for days on this storm lol This storm is nothing but high hopes and dreams. Head over to - Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion and check the storm out after… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro looking good. Final call 8.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The model trend is quite favorable for my area. The initial wave of snow to the west is inching more northeast and the main wave to the southeast is inching more northwest. The 06z Euro has Cedar Rapids up to several inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Euro looking good. Final call 8.4" Bullish huh? 3-7 final call. 4.3 imby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 55 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The model trend is quite favorable for my area. The initial wave of snow to the west is inching more northeast and the main wave to the southeast is inching more northwest. The 06z Euro has Cedar Rapids up to several inches. I'm changing the oil in the snow blower today or tomorrow. Gonna be getting a workout in a few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Really detailed write up from LOT. Interesting notes on the front end/deform events LONG TERM... Issued at 256 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024 Monday through Friday... Key Messages: * Strong storm system on track to bring a very wet accumulating snow to the region Monday night into Tuesday night * While specifics still remain a bit uncertain, we continue to hone in on two main windows of impacts: 1) Monday night mainly near and south of I-80 with a several hour burst of snow potentially intercepting some of the evening commute and 2) Tuesday midday and overnight with more widespread impacts from wet accumulating snow and strong/gusty winds. The parent disturbance set to spawn our storm system for the start of the week continues to make steady eastward progress, and is now approaching the Pacific Northwest. Water vapor loops show a strong-divergent jet streak shuttling across Washington and Oregon early this morning. This feature will begin to dive southeastward today and tonight, eventually sweeping across the Great Basin Sunday night before emerging out across the Great Plains on Monday. While individual deterministic models continue to (unsurprisingly) show run-to-run wobbles, the ensemble envelopes are generally tightening up and clustering around a preferred solution, depicting a deepening surface low tracking from near or just south of St. Louis towards Indianapolis and eventually across Lower Michigan. Historically, this is a classic track/set-up for significant snow events in our area. The limiting factor this time around, however, remains the lack of an antecedent reservoir of cold air. This has implications on a few items. First: snow-to- liquid ratios will be well under climatological values and under 10:1 on the whole. Second: The rain/snow line will probably press into our forecast area, and an eventual transition to even all rain is on the table across parts of the region, with chances increasing the farther south and east you go. Third: the gradient separating the most significant snowfall amounts will likely be sharper than model guidance depicts and relegated to a narrow corridor where the strongest f-gen/deformation forcing develops. Pinning this perhaps 30-50 mile-wide area down at this range remains a fool`s errand, but signals point to this developing somewhere in our CWA. A trend which started to emerge last night continues to develop tonight in model guidance, with two relatively distinct periods of impacts. The first, which is slated to arrive Monday night will occur with the initial burgeoning warm advection wing of the deepening surface low. Very strong ascent looks to, at least briefly, overlap the core of the DGZ as precipitable water values begin to increase past 0.6 to 0.7 inch. While it`ll be close, latest guidance suggests precip may initially begin as snow everywhere in our area before transitioning to a rain/snow mix or all rain in our southern locales. Depending on when forcing arrives, this "thump" of snow may intersect at least the tail end of the Monday evening commute with an extremely wet snow (SLRs might trend towards 6-8:1 which even with relatively modest snow amounts would likely yield challenging travel conditions in spots. Positive snow depth change output is pretty telling in this regard, with amounts essentially halved or even less compared to raw 10:1 output, indicating some degree of melting will probably occur with this first round Monday night. Model trends appear to be honing in on locales near/south of I-80 with the heftiest activity from this first burst of snow, with chances for at least two inches of snow evident. The second window looks to occur after a brief period of mid-level drying works its way across the area which may result in a temporary lull in precip rates early Tuesday morning. This window is roughly Tuesday afternoon and night as the main surface low deepens more appreciably and f-gen/deformation band forcing takes over. Strengthening north and northeasterly winds combined with the low SLRs will support a plastering-type snow. As mentioned above, the very highest snowfall amounts will likely occur in a narrow axis, with a relatively sharp fall-off in amounts either side of this. The multi-model consensus and ensemble output currently suggests the highest chances for over 4 inches of snow with this second wave essentially straddling the I-55 corridor, with rain chances increasing off to the south and east. Again, model probabilities are probably smeared out much wider than will be realized owing to (1) lingering model spread and (2) lack of modeling melting/compaction which will undoubtedly occur in this marginal temperature environment. Freshening winds off the 40 degree lake may also play a role in locally muting accumulations right at the lakefront. Conditions will ease through Wednesday morning as the low departs. Beyond this, another robust vort max looks to descend upon the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Forecast soundings show this will probably be snow for most of the area, although noting a very quick loss of deeper saturation suggesting at least some potential for things to transition to drizzle/freezing drizzle. A signal exists in the extended guidance for yet another potentially significant winter system somewhere in the vicinity towards the end of the week and upcoming weekend... Carlaw 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Current LOT write up seems to suggest a very localized (narrow) 3-6 type of event with less south of 55 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Not loving trends. 850mb is on fire 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Call looking $$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Maybe the NAM isn't so crazy with the northern solutions seeing how the GFS continues to creep north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Everything before today was fun. Now it starts to get real. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Baum said: Everything before today was fun. Now it starts to get real. Actually, not until 3:30pm tomorrow up in hillbilly country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Baum said: Everything before today was fun. Now it starts to get real. Which is why the smart, no fun mets wait till now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 There has been a significant shift/expansion nw on the GEFS mean... Cedar Rapids has gone from 3" a day ago to now 8". The op run only has 5" here, so this suggests there may be room for even more nw shift. Concurrently, the Chicagoland lakeshore has been cut back quite a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: There has been a significant shift/expansion nw on the GEFS mean... Cedar Rapids has gone from 3" a day ago to now 8". Concurrently, the Chicagoland lakeshore has been cut back quite a bit. Ironic. Just yesterday our chief met where I work was talking about how it's trending east and he was expecting snow totals over southern Wisconsin to decrease enough that he could cancel the "Alert Day" for Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: Ironic. Just yesterday our chief met where I work was talking about how it's trending east and he was expecting snow totals over southern Wisconsin to decrease enough that he could cancel the "Alert Day" for Tuesday. Yeah, our local mets have been talking down the event as well as it trended southeast. However, that will reverse today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Okay nw shift can stop now ha. Getting a little too close for comfort to rain-snow line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 19 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: There has been a significant shift/expansion nw on the GEFS mean... Cedar Rapids has gone from 3" a day ago to now 8". The op run only has 5" here, so this suggests there may be room for even more nw shift. Concurrently, the Chicagoland lakeshore has been cut back quite a bit. If Rockford has a magnet, this is about as far NW as it can go in terms of getting the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro a tick north/4mb deeper and looks pretty decent. Just please not a full rainer, 8.4" was obviously a joke but adding to the white would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If this is like the old school wrapped up lows, we will see a NW over correction that then comes back to the SE as we get closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: If this is like the old school wrapped up lows, we will see a NW over correction that then comes back to the SE as we get closer. Hopium 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 @RCNYILWX If you don't mind, what are your thoughts? Will we see a continued NW trend or some modulation back south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z Euro... the only gripe I have with this run is the defo zone across eastern Iowa is rather weak-looking considering there is a 978 mb low over central IL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 [mention=3997]RCNYILWX[/mention] If you don't mind, what are your thoughts? Will we see a continued NW trend or some modulation back south?You have competing factors - there is downstream -NAO blocking but it's in a bit of a low ebb as a 50N/50W low kicks out. Meanwhile, it's a dynamic, deepening system that wants to cut at least some due to height rises/latent heat release out ahead of it. I don't think it's going to go substantially NW bc of the downstream blocking but unfortunately we'll probably be riding the line due to the lack of an entrenched colder air mass that could have had the baroclinic zone farther southeast. We might have more wiggle room in the western suburbs than in the city and due south burbs. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro... the only gripe I have with this run is the defo zone across eastern Iowa is rather weak-looking considering there is a 978 mb low over central IL. 850mb and sfc low are occluding so you're losing your moisture advection into the CCB back that ways. Chicago area continues to look like a 4-8"ish event of cement off 1"+ of QPF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 850mb and sfc low are occluding so you're losing your moisture advection into the CCB back that ways. Chicago area continues to look like a 4-8"ish event of cement off 1"+ of QPF. I don't buy 4-8 yet. Areas that get initial front end will either melt or miss the deform. Areas that get just deform will still struggle to accumulate due to daytime temps On paper and in models 4-8 looks reasonable but in reality I don't think it will be. If it does shift slightly northwest then areas like Rockford have the best shot at anything over. 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Korean model no longer on friendly terms with Alek's call 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 12z EPS... much better for the lake shore than the GEFS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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