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1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm


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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Unfortunately ILX has been using these maps in their graphics too.

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That's not surprising. Lol. But definitely misleading the public. On a side note nam looking like it will be relatively north at end of its run. Probably near STL. Nice front end thump. If you can believe its temp profiles. 

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That's not surprising. Lol. But definitely misleading the public. On a side note nam looking like it will be relatively north at end of its run. Probably near STL. Nice front end thump. If you can believe its temp profiles. 
Not surprised at all to see the NAM that amped at this range. Front end thump with the WAA has looked decent for a while - the air mass isn't cold but cold enough.


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15 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Not surprised at all to see the NAM that amped at this range. Front end thump with the WAA has looked decent for a while - the air mass isn't cold but cold enough.

 

Yeah typical nam. Usually on north end of guidance in its long range but falls in line with guidance as we close in. Unless this does end up stronger and nw which is plausible. Hoping for a nice front end thump. 

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17 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

ILX majorly downplaying this in their latest afd. Calling for mix or potentially rain through majority of the event well into Tues. 

ILX always does. Just like WCIA (local weather here in CI) I wish this snowfall wasn’t getting nuked by the warm temps prior to the next system, would certainly help with thermals. 

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4 minutes ago, Chambana said:

ILX always does. Just like WCIA (local weather here in CI) I wish this snowfall wasn’t getting nuked by the warm temps prior to the next system, would certainly help with thermals. 

I do agree thermals are an issue esp with eastern extent cuz of strong waa but don't agree it won't changeover till late Tues. I think strong forcing and dynamic cooling will help changeover. 

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Looks pretty sloppy with the marginal temps. Like where I sit but don’t think it’ll amount to too much unless that defo band can really rip. Hoping for 5.1” but that can bust in a big way. If it delivers imagine I’ll be knocking wet slop off the young trees in the yard with a broom.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

It's probably safe to throw the early NAM runs in the trash.  The global models are much farther south with the upper low.

I do think though pure climo is against anyone east of Chicago and Milwaukee getting a solid snow. This is a pretty damn strong low without anything to really keep it from cutting poleward as it bombs out

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13 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Imagine what the DGEX would've been doing with this storm... Glad that was retired years and years ago tho. Not this storm but radar looking good for a DAB tonight. Some decent banding.

I dunno, one of the best parts of winter storm tracking is the eye-watering snow totals put out by a few choice models. DGEX was always reliable for a good 36"+ somewhere in its forecast timeframe. RIP

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2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

I dunno, one of the best parts of winter storm tracking is the eye-watering snow totals put out by a few choice models. DGEX was always reliable for a good 36"+ somewhere in its forecast timeframe. RIP

DGEX weenie maps from OG GHD 

giphy-downsized.gif

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Gfs a bit juicier too. Guidance is really showing that def band cranking once it arrives. +SN and the winds could have us talking the B word. 
 
image.thumb.png.4a1f05debb1c6f8375b4db62ff855dfb.png
24-hour captures the defo for northern IL but misses the front end snow Monday night into Tuesday morning. 2d355cea66ce940cb29b3c7b747603df.jpg


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