RyanDe680 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Noticeably with each run the low continues to shift west on the mean. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/3/2024 at 2:50 PM, sbnwx85 said: Models are starting to get that look to them here, too. I'm far from making a final call, but I'm more than prepared for a front end inch of slop, followed by rain, followed by a couple inches of wind-whipped lake effect/enhancement. Active pattern behind this system, though. Should have just made this my final call two days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 20 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Noticeably with each run the low continues to shift west on the mean. . 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Noticeably with each run the low continues to shift west on the mean. .The GEFS mean has had a gradual tick west, agree, while the EPS mean has generally been pretty consistent with the SLP track. With a good antecedent cold air mass, we'd have a little more wiggle room on the track. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 glad the euro put that 0z run behind it 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Chicago folks reeling this one in unless stuff suddenly changes tomorrow or Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Chicago folks reeling this one in unless stuff suddenly changes tomorrow or Sunday It'll come back home. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Beggars cannot be choosers, but the euro spitting out 1"+ QPF to get 6-8"... In January... Leaves something to be desired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Cold rainer with back end 1” paste job. Final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Chambana said: Cold Rainer with back end 1” paste job. Final call We'll reel in the one next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 24 minutes ago, Chambana said: Cold rainer with back end 1” paste job. Final call Hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 33 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Chicago folks reeling this one in unless stuff suddenly changes tomorrow or Sunday We’re still 4/5 days out. Too early to be throwing any solution out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Im feeling good about this one for a moderate event in the LOT CWA. Will go 5-8” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Liking the look of that 12z EPS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yea looking good for western sub, hopefully the next one delivers for those who miss out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: Im feeling good about this one for a moderate event in the LOT CWA. Will go 5-8” bullish, nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'm just expecting slop here, much more interested in the following storm. I feel this will be Chicago's version of the heavy wet snow paste jobs Detroit got last January 25th and March 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'm just expecting slop here, much more interested in the following storm. I feel this will be Chicago's version of the heavy wet snow paste jobs Detroit got last January 25th and March 3rd.Feel better about avoiding that insanely sharp cutoff March 3rd had. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Liking the look of that 12z EPSThe EPS has been very steady the last several runs. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I would love to know what model blend they're following. I do agree rain or mix will start before a changeover in the heavier rates in deformation band but I think they're too weak with low and a bit too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I would love to know what model blend they're following. I do agree rain or mix will start before a changeover in the heavier rates in deformation band but I think they're too weak with low and a bit too warm. Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest model guidance suite continues to offer a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale weather pattern for the first half of next week including the evolution of the major low pressure system over the Plains and Great Lakes/Northeast. A multi-deterministic composite model blend of well clustered guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the NBM and WPC product continuity was used for the period from Monday-Wednesday to produce max detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability. Going into the latter half of next week, gradually increasing model differences in the wake of the strong low favored some blend inclusion of compatible but smoother input from the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest model guidance suite continues to offer a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale weather pattern for the first half of next week including the evolution of the major low pressure system over the Plains and Great Lakes/Northeast. A multi-deterministic composite model blend of well clustered guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the NBM and WPC product continuity was used for the period from Monday-Wednesday to produce max detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability. Going into the latter half of next week, gradually increasing model differences in the wake of the strong low favored some blend inclusion of compatible but smoother input from the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the models. the crap shoot model or CSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Still large differences between the euro/Canadian. Barely any cold sector precip and storm is pretty progressive on the canadian. Uncle ukie has totals drop off significantly from south to north Illinois, cutoff around Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 King KMA takes it into Milwaukee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 the korean stealing my call as usual 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest model guidance suite continues to offer a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale weather pattern for the first half of next week including the evolution of the major low pressure system over the Plains and Great Lakes/Northeast. A multi-deterministic composite model blend of well clustered guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the NBM and WPC product continuity was used for the period from Monday-Wednesday to produce max detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability. Going into the latter half of next week, gradually increasing model differences in the wake of the strong low favored some blend inclusion of compatible but smoother input from the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the models. I just don't buy rain-snow line being that west and I think they're being a bit conservative with the low strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 34 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I would love to know what model blend they're following. I do agree rain or mix will start before a changeover in the heavier rates in deformation band but I think they're too weak with low and a bit too warm. i don't know why they still waste their time with these. they're always so bad. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: glad the euro put that 0z run behind it It had a run similar to the 0z a day or so ago as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: i don't know why they still waste their time with these. they're always so bad. Did you see the 1000mb contour was inside the 996mb contour? Lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The end of the NAM (Yes I know it's the end of the NAM) has some pretty good convection going on in Mississippi/Alabama. Meanwhile a good front end thump for a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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