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1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm


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On 1/3/2024 at 2:50 PM, sbnwx85 said:

Models are starting to get that look to them here, too. I'm far from making a final call, but I'm more than prepared for a front end inch of slop, followed by rain, followed by a couple inches of wind-whipped lake effect/enhancement. Active pattern behind this system, though.

Should have just made this my final call two days ago.

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Noticeably with each run the low continues to shift west on the mean.


.
The GEFS mean has had a gradual tick west, agree, while the EPS mean has generally been pretty consistent with the SLP track. With a good antecedent cold air mass, we'd have a little more wiggle room on the track.

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I'm just expecting slop here, much more interested in the following storm. I feel this will be Chicago's version of the heavy wet snow paste jobs Detroit got last January 25th and March 3rd.
Feel better about avoiding that insanely sharp cutoff March 3rd had.

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8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I would love to know what model blend they're following. I do agree rain or mix will start before a changeover in the heavier rates in deformation band but I think they're too weak with low and a bit too warm. 

wpcwx+frontsf096.gif

 

 

Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

 

The latest model guidance suite continues to offer a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale weather pattern for the first half of next week including the evolution of the major low pressure system over the Plains and Great Lakes/Northeast. A multi-deterministic composite model blend of well clustered guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the NBM and WPC product continuity was used for the period from Monday-Wednesday to produce max detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability. Going into the latter half of next week, gradually increasing model differences in the wake of the strong low favored some blend inclusion of compatible but smoother input from the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the models.

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3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

 

 

Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

 

The latest model guidance suite continues to offer a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale weather pattern for the first half of next week including the evolution of the major low pressure system over the Plains and Great Lakes/Northeast. A multi-deterministic composite model blend of well clustered guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the NBM and WPC product continuity was used for the period from Monday-Wednesday to produce max detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability. Going into the latter half of next week, gradually increasing model differences in the wake of the strong low favored some blend inclusion of compatible but smoother input from the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the models.

the crap shoot model or CSM

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25 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

 

 

Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

 

The latest model guidance suite continues to offer a good overall depiction of the synoptic scale weather pattern for the first half of next week including the evolution of the major low pressure system over the Plains and Great Lakes/Northeast. A multi-deterministic composite model blend of well clustered guidance from the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian along with the NBM and WPC product continuity was used for the period from Monday-Wednesday to produce max detail consistent with a pattern with seemingly above normal predictability. Going into the latter half of next week, gradually increasing model differences in the wake of the strong low favored some blend inclusion of compatible but smoother input from the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble means along with the models.

I just don't buy rain-snow line being that west and I think they're being a bit conservative with the low strength 

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34 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I would love to know what model blend they're following. I do agree rain or mix will start before a changeover in the heavier rates in deformation band but I think they're too weak with low and a bit too warm. 

wpcwx+frontsf096.gif

i don't know why they still waste their time with these. they're always so bad.

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