RogueWaves Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Chinook said: What is this purple and pink rectangle at Detroit? A car for the Motor City? That's the DTW blob of wx BS. Meanwhile, 16" at my place. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'm liking this and foresee less extreme wobbles moving forward. Recon input may be helping dial things in sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 17 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: That's the DTW blob of wx BS. Meanwhile, 16" at my place. Nice! Another depiction of the ECMWF precip type just shows rain for SE Mich at that time frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Anyone that can explain this new (to me) phenomenon I bolded, please feel free to enlighten. GRR 4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE), indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980 mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2 or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NOAA flight Plan for today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If the gfs ends up verifying, I'd imagine there would be blizzard warnings for the grr area. Only a few hour drive away. Canadian has a totally different evolution and track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 #ChefsKiss 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro is a torch. Lol. Deformation band is mostly a mix. Snow amounts terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Euro is a torch. Lol. Deformation band is mostly a mix Yea I think with a low that strong, there will be more dynamic cooling that the models aren't portraying. A track from NE Arkansas to Cleveland is usually good for most of Michigan. Interesting to see the euro look more like earlier gfs runs and the latest gfs took a step towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Yea I think with a low that strong, there will be more dynamic cooling that the models aren't portraying. A track from NE Arkansas to Cleveland is usually good for most of Michigan. Interesting to see the euro look more like earlier gfs runs and the latest gfs took a step towards the euro. Definitely would think with a system that dynamic that deformation band would change to solid snow in the heavy precip. Hopefully sampling soon will help models resolve this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Definitely would think with a system that dynamic that deformation band would change to solid snow in the heavy precip. Hopefully sampling soon will help models resolve this. Also devoid of precip for a good amount of time. Really strange evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Also devoid of precip for a good amount of time. Really strange evolution Wondering if it's having convective feedback issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Wondering if it's having convective feedback issues Must be. A 986 deepening low sitting over Carbondale, but barely throwing precip to Champaign seems off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 58 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Must be. A 986 deepening low sitting over Carbondale, but barely throwing precip to Champaign seems off. The EPS looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The EPS looks better Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles. OP euro was definitely struggling with the thermals. It's a shame this system doesn't have a nice arctic air mass to work with. Pretty much depending on intense precip in def band to dynamically cool column for snow. Ratios going to be low. Someone nearby will get warning criteria snowfall but this easily could have been a widespread foot plus for a bigger area if antecedent air mass was colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Sad Final call 1.5 imby, 4 at ORD 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Fading ALEK - wide spread 8+ inches for entire area. Only call. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Sad Final call 1.5 imby, 4 at ORD Ground zero: Fox River Grove 5.2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 you have to start somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 laying down a nice base for the 30+ the 6z GFS is selling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles. 6z EPS looks very similar. I’d say the ensembles have been remarkably consistent for this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Sad Final call 1.5 imby, 4 at ORD Of rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Here’s the final frame of the 12z NAM: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Here’s the final frame of the 12z NAM: Same general look as the Euro. Liking the model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hoping we don't just get a bunch of wind and rain here, but it's increasingly looking that way :/ , at least we should have an inch or 2 tomorrow as a winter teaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Anyone that can explain this new (to me) phenomenon I bolded, please feel free to enlighten. GRR 4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE), indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980 mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2 or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere. from the ECMWF website, which can explain it better than I: "Extreme values of EFI (close to +1 or -1) and positive values of SOT signify that a very unusual event is expected." SOT is shift of tails. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 A number of the ensemble outliers have tightened up, starting to get some confidence in a good hit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Details aside, it sure is nice to have winter weather to track again. Last winter was largely a bust, 2022 was alright but would've been unremarkable if it weren't for the early Feb storm. Seems like Feb '21 was the last time we had a period of back-to-back systems to track like this, let's keep it rolling. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 A number of the ensemble outliers have tightened up, starting to get some confidence in a good hit. The GEFS actually likes interior northern Illinois down to west central IL more - definitely been consistently west of the op. Should see a tightening of the spread the next couple cycles. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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