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1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm


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Anyone that can explain this new (to me) phenomenon I bolded, please feel free to enlighten. 

 

GRR

4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE),
indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low
tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980
mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature
minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we
are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2
or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are
several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers
relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong
positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could
be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere.
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Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Euro is a torch. Lol. Deformation band is mostly a mix 

Yea I think with a low that strong, there will be more dynamic cooling that the models aren't portraying. A track from NE Arkansas to Cleveland is usually good for most of Michigan. Interesting to see the euro look more like earlier gfs runs and the latest gfs took a step towards the euro.

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4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea I think with a low that strong, there will be more dynamic cooling that the models aren't portraying. A track from NE Arkansas to Cleveland is usually good for most of Michigan. Interesting to see the euro look more like earlier gfs runs and the latest gfs took a step towards the euro.

Definitely would think with a system that dynamic that deformation band would change to solid snow in the heavy precip. Hopefully sampling soon will help models resolve this. 

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The EPS looks better
Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles. 8ec35140e8d29271422e211271f3933f.jpg50c254500bfca40389219026b9f4e196.jpg





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39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles. 8ec35140e8d29271422e211271f3933f.jpg50c254500bfca40389219026b9f4e196.jpg




 

OP euro was definitely struggling with the thermals. It's a shame this system doesn't have a nice arctic air mass to work with. Pretty much depending on intense precip in def band to dynamically cool column for snow. Ratios going to be low. Someone nearby will get warning criteria snowfall but this easily could have been a widespread foot plus for a bigger area if antecedent air mass was colder. 

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4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles. 8ec35140e8d29271422e211271f3933f.jpg50c254500bfca40389219026b9f4e196.jpg




 

6z EPS looks very similar. I’d say the ensembles have been remarkably consistent for this range.

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11 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Anyone that can explain this new (to me) phenomenon I bolded, please feel free to enlighten. 

 

GRR

4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE),
indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low
tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980
mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature
minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we
are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2
or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are
several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers
relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong
positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could
be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere.

from the ECMWF website, which can explain it better than I:

"Extreme values of EFI (close to +1 or -1) and positive values of SOT signify that a very unusual event is expected." SOT is shift of tails.

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Details aside, it sure is nice to have winter weather to track again. Last winter was largely a bust, 2022 was alright but would've been unremarkable if it weren't for the early Feb storm. Seems like Feb '21 was the last time we had a period of back-to-back systems to track like this, let's keep it rolling.

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A number of the ensemble outliers have tightened up, starting to get some confidence in a good hit. 
 
sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.png
The GEFS actually likes interior northern Illinois down to west central IL more - definitely been consistently west of the op. Should see a tightening of the spread the next couple cycles.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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