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1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm


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5 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

The hills were that 1 degree colder. Most locals got over 10” some over 12” 

 

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

The point is that may be the only storm the past few winters that didn't end up weaker/se than what the euro depicted 4/5 days out. I think the fact that detroit had mixing issues is why I didnt recall that event.

But even during the event, I remember the models were still spitting out crazy amounts like a widespread 15-20".

Probably the rare instance where a storm didn't trend drier before the onset.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

You would have enjoyed last winter in SE MI then. Multiple good cement snowstorms. 

ANY snow is better than no snow, and wet snow is beautiful, but Im a powder person  lol.

At least the cement snow makes for some awesome pictures. Love the morning after a good paste job by Mother Nature. But on the contrary I would love a nice blowing snow and drifting event.

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It looks like this will be the first large winter storm for northeast lower MI...for now. I raked up the residual autumn leaves in my front yard around Xmas, first time ever. Haven't touched a snow shovel since last winter. 

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34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You would have enjoyed last winter in SE MI then. Multiple good cement snowstorms. 

ANY snow is better than no snow, and wet snow is beautiful, but Im a powder person  lol.

It was very much sarcasm. Lol. But I will take anything at this point! Snow is snow! 

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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Has the low just ping ponging around the the texas states to, but has it at 983 over evansville, IN at 123

There's room for improvement as well if it gets its act together sooner, ejecting out of the Rockies and reforming.

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I'm not gonna watch any models until 12Z Monday.....Not!  Kind of enjoying the emotional rollercoaster, LOL.  Also looks good down the road so we could be looking at snow on snow, which we have not had in a long time.  

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Wow!  Grand Rapids in taking this seriously...

 

-- Increased chances for impactful mid-week winter storm --

Confidence is growing that there will be a winter storm either
directly impacting or in the vicinity of Lower Michigan. In fact,
ensemble guidance has begun to converge on a solution that, should
it occur, would be reminiscent of our recent December 22, 2022
blizzard. This would mean widespread snow accumulations well over 6
inches, followed by lake effect snow along with very strong
northwest winds that could produce blizzard-like conditions
Wednesday morning. However, precipitation type is far from certain;
a significant rain component remains possible and this could
significantly curtail snow accumulations.

While what`s described above is far from certain at this point, I
still feel it is worth mentioning now as a possibility for the
following reasons:

1) It is not too early to be thinking about contingency plans for
possible travel and power disruptions next week.

2) There has been a signal for a major pattern shift starting nearly
a week ago. This has consistently featured a deep, strongly phased
western U.S. trough resulting in surface cyclogenesis in the lee of
southern Rockies. These have a strong climatological propensity to
track northeast towards the Ohio Valley, often while deepening.

3) Past storms in recent memory exhibiting this pattern showed
remarkable predictability and consistency in model guidance leading
right up to the event. This presumably has much to do with inherent
predictability associated with deep longwave troughs such as the one
we`re dealing with now.

4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE),
indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low
tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980
mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature
minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we
are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2
or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are
several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers
relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong
positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could
be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere.

While it`s easy to focus on what snow occurs (which undoubtedly
could be especially jarring given the winter that we`ve had so far),
we are just as concerned about the wind threat that may manifest on
the back side of the exiting, deepening low. The official forecast
will continue to smear wind speeds downward due to averaging of
model solutions, but it should be noted that we could in fact
experience very significant northwest winds and gusts that may
impact much of Lower Michigan sometime in the middle of the coming
week.
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