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1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm


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2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska.

Seems like in the past few years that about the time we got good sampling, the models began their trend back down to strung out shit. If we still have a strong storm on the table 12z/18z saturday, I will start to feel good about it for someone. 

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3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska.

That isn't our system. That's the Aleutian low. Our system is a smaller disturbance rotating around the base of that low. Probably why models are struggling right now. 

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14 hours ago, Harry Perry said:

We are still SO far out - no one should have any expectations yet. 
 

It is nice to finally have something to watch though, and to have weenie maps is pure lust. 

Liking where I sit attm

8 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska.

Umm, what was 3/3/23 if not also a strong SLP not going NW last minute?

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1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Liking where I sit attm

Umm, what was 3/3/23 if not also a strong SLP not going NW last minute?

I dunno, I was in florida and if there was anything of significance, I would've flown home. I doubt it was anything close to as strong as what models are depicting for this potential.

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5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Not at all a bad look. Lots of good members for a big Chi hit. 

 

GEFS has been fairly consistent with the mean low track over the past few runs. As always, ENS are really the only thing to be seriously watching at this range.

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44 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

giphy.gif

OT for a second, this happened to us when I was 15, me and my grandpa were driving behind my uncle and dad going up north for deer hunting and the wheel flew off and up into the trailer itself leaving the rest of the components to leave a scar on 75 for about 100 ft. They ended up welding the wheel onto the harness as the trailer was going up north for the last time and they limped it up north. A 4 hour drive turned into 10 with the repair.

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Not at all a bad look. Lots of good members for a big Chi hit. 
sfcmslp-meanmem.conus.png
Yep, based off that, no real changes in thinking. It's good to see the ensemble not hugging the operational with plenty of members still supporting a good outcome here as you noted. The obvious caveat is there's members also similar to the operational, so that solution remains plausible, though the majority are west of the operational. The mean was actually a tick west and stronger from the 06z run.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I dunno, I was in florida and if there was anything of significance, I would've flown home. I doubt it was anything close to as strong as what models are depicting for this potential.

3/3 was a wound up storm with blinding snow and lots of thundersnow in SE MI. Not a lot of cold air.

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

3/3 was a wound up storm with blinding snow and lots of thundersnow in SE MI. Not a lot of cold air.

That was the event I went outside in the peak and was able to witness 7 strikes in about 30 mins or so. Will definitely go outside again. I’ll be the winter version of this guy.

IMG_5444.png

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I would say these models now that they have gotten to such fine grid scale have done poorly on cold sector precip, I feel like this may be a situation like that as well.
Figure the amount of convection in the warm sector is something that may also contribute to struggles in handling the evolution of this system.

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20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Figure the amount of convection in the warm sector is something that may also contribute to struggles in handling the evolution of this system.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah that is contributing a bit too but with the negative tilt of the storm you'd expect a nice CCB and a nice baroclinic leaf structure to this. Models seem to just struggle with both at this point.

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29 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Interesting, I dont shovel that lol. For me has to be 3-4" before I shovel. 

I notice people who live in the country tend to just drive over a few inches of snow but in the suburbs people will shovel. My last shovelable 3"+ snowfall was 5.3" on March 10th.

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3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I notice people who live in the country tend to just drive over a few inches of snow but in the suburbs people will shovel. My last shovelable 3"+ snowfall was 5.3" on March 10th.

Can confirm. Live in country and I haven't snow blowed the driveway in the last two winters. Porches and sidewalks have been shoveled, yes.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Were you away for 2 years lol

Nope. EC Illinois. Snowed last year but nothing that needed a shovel and before that the last snow was while I was working at a school. Feb 2021, I got a very good phone call while I was shoveling. Remember it exactly 

Winter of Feb 2021 is the last time I had to shovel my walks, driveway, or move snow for the dogs 

Edit - Feb 2022

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14 minutes ago, King James said:

Nope. EC Illinois. Snowed last year but nothing that needed a shovel and before that the last snow was while I was working at a school. Feb 2021, I got a very good phone call while I was shoveling. Remember it exactly 

Winter of Feb 2021 is the last time I had to shovel my walks, driveway, or move snow for the dogs 

Edit - Feb 2022

I was going to ask if you were confusing '21 with '22, I had to go back and look today because I thought the big storm in Feb '22 was actually '21. Had 13" at my place from that.

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2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

I was going to ask if you were confusing '21 with '22, I had to go back and look today because I thought the big storm in Feb '22 was actually '21. Had 13" at my place from that.

Yeah Feb 2022 had some good snows around my parts 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

3/3 was a wound up storm with blinding snow and lots of thundersnow in SE MI. Not a lot of cold air.

That's the one where, had it been like a half degree colder throughout the column, Detroit would have been buried in well over a foot of concrete.

In fact, before the mixing issues eventually happened (as dynamic cooling was doing its thing for a good minute), I recall DTX was strongly considering a Blizzard Warning.

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5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

That's the one where, had it been like a half degree colder throughout the column, Detroit would have been buried in well over a foot of concrete.

In fact, before the mixing issues eventually happened (as dynamic cooling was doing its thing for a good minute), I recall DTX was strongly considering a Blizzard Warning.

The hills were that 1 degree colder. Most locals got over 10” some over 12” 

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5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

That's the one where, had it been like a half degree colder throughout the column, Detroit would have been buried in well over a foot of concrete.

In fact, before the mixing issues eventually happened (as dynamic cooling was doing its thing for a good minute), I recall DTX was strongly considering a Blizzard Warning.

The point is that may be the only storm the past few winters that didn't end up weaker/se than what the euro depicted 4/5 days out. I think the fact that detroit had mixing issues is why I didnt recall that event.

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Goes sub-970 over Huron. Classic Great Lakes bomb. Curious about the precip wrap around into MI/IN/OH beyond hour 138 in that run, kinda looks like it is dealing with thermo issues? I would imagine under most cases that would all be snow...

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