SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska. Seems like in the past few years that about the time we got good sampling, the models began their trend back down to strung out shit. If we still have a strong storm on the table 12z/18z saturday, I will start to feel good about it for someone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska. That isn't our system. That's the Aleutian low. Our system is a smaller disturbance rotating around the base of that low. Probably why models are struggling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 hours ago, Harry Perry said: We are still SO far out - no one should have any expectations yet. It is nice to finally have something to watch though, and to have weenie maps is pure lust. Liking where I sit attm 8 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska. Umm, what was 3/3/23 if not also a strong SLP not going NW last minute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Not at all a bad look. Lots of good members for a big Chi hit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Liking where I sit attm Umm, what was 3/3/23 if not also a strong SLP not going NW last minute? I dunno, I was in florida and if there was anything of significance, I would've flown home. I doubt it was anything close to as strong as what models are depicting for this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Canadian seems confused on where the low strenghtens. Not much cold sector precip. Definitely gonna be a Rollercoaster on the models the next few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Not at all a bad look. Lots of good members for a big Chi hit. GEFS has been fairly consistent with the mean low track over the past few runs. As always, ENS are really the only thing to be seriously watching at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 44 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: OT for a second, this happened to us when I was 15, me and my grandpa were driving behind my uncle and dad going up north for deer hunting and the wheel flew off and up into the trailer itself leaving the rest of the components to leave a scar on 75 for about 100 ft. They ended up welding the wheel onto the harness as the trailer was going up north for the last time and they limped it up north. A 4 hour drive turned into 10 with the repair. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GEFS remains nw of the OP. This has been a pretty consistent trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Not at all a bad look. Lots of good members for a big Chi hit. Yep, based off that, no real changes in thinking. It's good to see the ensemble not hugging the operational with plenty of members still supporting a good outcome here as you noted. The obvious caveat is there's members also similar to the operational, so that solution remains plausible, though the majority are west of the operational. The mean was actually a tick west and stronger from the 06z run. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I would say these models now that they have gotten to such fine grid scale have done poorly on cold sector precip, I feel like this may be a situation like that as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I dunno, I was in florida and if there was anything of significance, I would've flown home. I doubt it was anything close to as strong as what models are depicting for this potential. 3/3 was a wound up storm with blinding snow and lots of thundersnow in SE MI. Not a lot of cold air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, michsnowfreak said: 3/3 was a wound up storm with blinding snow and lots of thundersnow in SE MI. Not a lot of cold air. That was the event I went outside in the peak and was able to witness 7 strikes in about 30 mins or so. Will definitely go outside again. I’ll be the winter version of this guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I would say these models now that they have gotten to such fine grid scale have done poorly on cold sector precip, I feel like this may be a situation like that as well.Figure the amount of convection in the warm sector is something that may also contribute to struggles in handling the evolution of this system. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I don't either. It was 1.7" of snow. Before that would be mid-March. Interesting, I dont shovel that lol. For me has to be 3-4" before I shovel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: 3/3 was a wound up storm with blinding snow and lots of thundersnow in SE MI. Not a lot of cold air. The trends have been better for SE MI and Southern Ontario. Liking the low going just south of Lake Erie on the last run of the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Figure the amount of convection in the warm sector is something that may also contribute to struggles in handling the evolution of this system. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Yeah that is contributing a bit too but with the negative tilt of the storm you'd expect a nice CCB and a nice baroclinic leaf structure to this. Models seem to just struggle with both at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 29 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Interesting, I dont shovel that lol. For me has to be 3-4" before I shovel. I notice people who live in the country tend to just drive over a few inches of snow but in the suburbs people will shovel. My last shovelable 3"+ snowfall was 5.3" on March 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I notice people who live in the country tend to just drive over a few inches of snow but in the suburbs people will shovel. My last shovelable 3"+ snowfall was 5.3" on March 10th. Can confirm. Live in country and I haven't snow blowed the driveway in the last two winters. Porches and sidewalks have been shoveled, yes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Were you away for 2 years lol Nope. EC Illinois. Snowed last year but nothing that needed a shovel and before that the last snow was while I was working at a school. Feb 2021, I got a very good phone call while I was shoveling. Remember it exactly Winter of Feb 2021 is the last time I had to shovel my walks, driveway, or move snow for the dogs Edit - Feb 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, King James said: Nope. EC Illinois. Snowed last year but nothing that needed a shovel and before that the last snow was while I was working at a school. Feb 2021, I got a very good phone call while I was shoveling. Remember it exactly Winter of Feb 2021 is the last time I had to shovel my walks, driveway, or move snow for the dogs Edit - Feb 2022 I was going to ask if you were confusing '21 with '22, I had to go back and look today because I thought the big storm in Feb '22 was actually '21. Had 13" at my place from that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: I was going to ask if you were confusing '21 with '22, I had to go back and look today because I thought the big storm in Feb '22 was actually '21. Had 13" at my place from that. Yeah Feb 2022 had some good snows around my parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z Euro is going to amped 5mb deeper than GFs and north at 111 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: 3/3 was a wound up storm with blinding snow and lots of thundersnow in SE MI. Not a lot of cold air. That's the one where, had it been like a half degree colder throughout the column, Detroit would have been buried in well over a foot of concrete. In fact, before the mixing issues eventually happened (as dynamic cooling was doing its thing for a good minute), I recall DTX was strongly considering a Blizzard Warning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro actually ends up weaker, but it ejects further north and gets its act together quicker than the gfs/cmc. Euro caved to the gfs numerous times last winter. I wonder who wins our first model battle this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro with the classic OKC to STL to FWA path with a deepening low. Classic N IL big dog look. Full range of outcomes on the table. Fun having something to track again. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Powerball said: That's the one where, had it been like a half degree colder throughout the column, Detroit would have been buried in well over a foot of concrete. In fact, before the mixing issues eventually happened (as dynamic cooling was doing its thing for a good minute), I recall DTX was strongly considering a Blizzard Warning. The hills were that 1 degree colder. Most locals got over 10” some over 12” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Powerball said: That's the one where, had it been like a half degree colder throughout the column, Detroit would have been buried in well over a foot of concrete. In fact, before the mixing issues eventually happened (as dynamic cooling was doing its thing for a good minute), I recall DTX was strongly considering a Blizzard Warning. The point is that may be the only storm the past few winters that didn't end up weaker/se than what the euro depicted 4/5 days out. I think the fact that detroit had mixing issues is why I didnt recall that event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I will take 12z euro for 500 Alex 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Goes sub-970 over Huron. Classic Great Lakes bomb. Curious about the precip wrap around into MI/IN/OH beyond hour 138 in that run, kinda looks like it is dealing with thermo issues? I would imagine under most cases that would all be snow... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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