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1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm


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2 hours ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Borchardt coming into work tonight for LOT and just straight up disagreeing with previous shifts snowfall forecast. Loser 

So that’s why my P&C went from 5-9 to 2-4 for daytime tomorrow with the removal of the heavy snow terminology. :unsure:

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

No model handling this dryslot well right now I feel. It has really punched north and east. Models I feel never get a good handle on this. Looked like it was going to snow well into the night before but now looks to be ending early

Nearly all guidance had some sort of lull swinging through during the late night/early morning.

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1.8" here as of midnight with steady high-end light snow still falling.  

New Euro still shows a bit over an inch of QPF for the QCA, but has shifted the heaviest weenie band south from previous runs.  Many high-res model runs have 1"+ for the QCA as well.  Ratios are <10:1, but much better rates with the stuff coming in around daybreak and through tomorrow should help.  Think we'll end up with 8-9" of very dense/wet snow here.  

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Nearly all guidance had some sort of lull swinging through during the late night/early morning.

Not quite this early. I agree towards morning for sure. Back edge is on my doorstep unless it starts filling back in. 

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16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For those keeping score locally... The 0z Euro also shifted SE, and keeps most of the metro all snow.

Bet we now see a shared EURO snow map with 30+ inches total post weekend storm now. 30 and some lmao

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Despite the excitement my 3" front end over to rain/drizzle and back end 1" for a total of 4" appears to be in play. I see the local office has corrected down after Izzi raised totals across the board yesterday PM.I'm in 3-5"zone which fits my call. Maybe, the defo band overperforms for me.

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48 minutes ago, BigHoss48192 said:

Another year...and probably another season of busted storms for SE Michigan.  It's 34-35 out and not even raining but the radar shows that it's snowing outside.  Must be evaporating before it even hits the ground.  Nothing to see here....

This post makes ZERO sense.

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Temp is at 35 with 20 mph E wind in Alpena this morning. Even with the SE trend still not feeling good about rain/mix forecast of only 1-2" by APX. I don't know what to think really. Back to nowcasting. Lol My final call is 3" by Wed afternoon. Starts this morning around noon. Most models are showing all snow until the low is just offshore tonight then a chance of mixing.  Fingers crossed the warm tongue stays short.

593796.jpeg

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1 hour ago, BigHoss48192 said:

Another year...and probably another season of busted storms for SE Michigan.  It's 34-35 out and not even raining but the radar shows that it's snowing outside.  Must be evaporating before it even hits the ground.  Nothing to see here....

Huh? I’m south of Toledo and it’s ripping snow! 
 

On a side note, there is a hell of a hook on a supercell just NE of PCB. At the moment SRH values in AL/FL are between 400-800. Going to be a hell of a weather day in the US today

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