King James Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Cold rain and a muddy back yard coming my way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 hours ago, cyclone77 said: DVN has the point/hourly forecast snowfall amounts up to nearly a foot here, and a few tenths over a foot for the QC. Seems pretty overdone as most guidance has QPF in the 0.6-0.9" range. Even accounting for higher LSR during intense banding, that may get canceled out by poor rates in the lulls in intensity many of the models show later tomorrow night into Tuesday. I'd probably go 6-8" with isolated higher amounts if I were making an official forecast. If the intensity of the deform band later Tuesday overperforms then DVN could end up being not too far off perhaps. Many of the 06z models have bumped up QPF, with some now 1" or more. New Euro now has a band of 1-1.3" across much of the DVN cwa, so double digit totals seem a little more probable now, particularly in northwest half of the cwa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 11 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: I agree, end of the week looks impressive for us. My point was - in typical GRR fashion, we will be last to jump on the bandwagon for headlines until the event is damn near underway or nearly over - for the first appreciable snowfall of the season. Ahh yeah that makes sense. GRR one of the greats imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Things are changin....still time for those near the transition zone big south shift from 12z NAM 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Things are changin....still time for those near the transition zone big south shift from 12z NAM WGN also saying you’re sitting pretty for Friday. Goodluck friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z NAM gets the rain/snow line to roughly I-55. Really nice storm from a Galesburg to Waukegan line or so. 12Z HRRR is similar. Feeling solid on my call right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Feeling good for 6-8” here. Winds will be howling too 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z NAM says my area stays all snow. Not sure what to think about the slight south shift on the last 2 runs. Is it real or is it the NAM doing its usual shenanigans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, madwx said: Feeling good for 6-8” here. Winds will be howling too Have fun dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Front end thump may not last long here but it should come down hard when it hits tomorrow morning and impact the morning drive in. Solid 3-4 should come with that initial hit and then some backside snow on Tuesday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, King James said: Cold rain and a muddy back yard coming my way. feel that. hoping this weekend brings some excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Looks like I'm in for around 6" of snowman making snow and some good winds! Temps still have me a lil scared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Getting some snow across the far southern suburbs in Prior Lake Minnesota. Looks like a general 1-2” for the twin cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Getting some snow across the far southern suburbs in Prior Lake Minnesota. Looks like a general 1-2” for the twin cities. Stuck in a dry pocket on the north side. Sometimes I really hate that I care…. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 radar looks nice, front end should be solid for a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6-8" seems like reasonable prediction for Cedar Rapids. I'm still not buying the higher end (9-12") of the NWS/locals range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 22 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: Stuck in a dry pocket on the north side. Sometimes I really hate that I care… . After receiving 90-100” last winter it’s no surprise that we are getting missed this year. I’m with ya though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 After receiving 90-100” last winter it’s no surprise that we are getting missed this year. I’m with ya though.Even last year the north side got the short end of a lot of the storms. If the NWS got over 100”, the airport got 90”, I bet we got 80-85”. Still a lot, but it always amazes me how much of a difference those 10-20 miles across the metro can make for snowstorms. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 wagons definitely a bit SE on the 12Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 this is the kind of event geos used to pull like 14" on 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, madwx said: wagons definitely a bit SE on the 12Z GFS Music to my ears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z GFS looking $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Noticeable shift south and seemingly upp'ed qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z NAM is a great hit for me in Eastern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 NAM went from being the bastard child to the golden child for me on this event. A nail biter for sure. PIA might be flirting with a January record low MSLP. Record is 980mb and HRRR gets down to 981mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 15z RAP Is more moisture showing up or are ratios getting better? Don’t recall snow going near or over a foot on Kuchera maps for IL previously. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Yeah these ratios are definitely a buzzkill. DGZ is rather shallow and most of the time the omega is nothing to write home about either. Here's 12Z HRRR for KDPA. Wouldn't be surprised if front end WAA thump over performs a bit, but overall liking midday Tuesday for NW/W burbs. Liking my chances here in West Dundee. Although UVV's aren't a bullseye, it's much more promising the prior hours. Additionally, liking the theta-e during that time too for some weak symmetric stability, although the lack of fgen banding might inhibit the potential. Either way, it wants to puke out over an inch of concrete in an hour during lunch time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Little band of snow over the Twin Cities just blew up on reflectivity into a full on snow band. Must be some better forcing working its way towards us. Might end up with a little surprise if this holds up for a while. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Going to get rocked. Went to fire up snowblower which has sat idle for 2 seasons...dead as a door nail. More none scientific evidence of a decent hit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Although temperatures will be marginal, the leading precip wave will be robust, which will keep thermals cool enough for 2-4" across the GTA, away from the lake, before it changes over to rain tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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