mnchaserguy Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5.5” imby? Probably a toss but it has my attention. I’d honestly be happy if we squeaked out a few inches from this after it looked like a complete miss for us. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said: I’d honestly be happy if we squeaked out a few inches from this after it looked like a complete miss for us. . Agreed, any accumulations whatsoever will be a score for me. We need to lay down something resembling a snowpack for the incoming arctic air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Interesting run on 00Z. Looked like it wanted to come back south at the beginning, but then ended up around same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Must say models tonight have me nervous. Dry slot and mixing line VERY close. I hope the nw trend stops or corrects back se. But a continued nw shift wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Marginal temps and relatively lower LSRs make it a bit tricky, but 5-6" for the QC looks pretty good at this point. Banding with the deformation should improve ratios though as RC mentioned earlier, so wouldn't be surprised if we can muster 7" or a little above if model trends hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/3/2024 at 2:18 PM, Chicago Storm said: I'll probably become more interested come Saturday, but until then it's a bit too early. i guess we've reached that point... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: i guess we've reached that point... So what is your level of interest? ;-) Considering the 2 inches we got last night was the highlight of the season so far, anything more than that *has* to be exciting for all of us! :-) I'd be not hoping/expecting much near the lake in NE IL but someone between Quad Cities and Collar Counties in IL may get a decent 6ish (+/- 2) event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Kind of a crapshoot around these parts. Hoping later in the week brings something a little more noteworthy. Will be fun to watch the evolution of this storm though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 This is kind of nuts with snow, rain, and freezing rain in random areas of Ohio with the southerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Man 0z euro painful here. Right on the mixing line. Brutal cutoff. I'm not liking where I sit at all. Feel like Iowa is wheeling this one in slowly. Still hoping for a slight se correction in next day or so. If these trends continue tomorrow I'm probably out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The nw trend on the Euro continues. Higher totals are pulling away from the lake. I'm feeling pretty good over here. Hopefully, the iffy temp won't hurt the accumulation too much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The nw trend on the Euro continues. Higher totals are pulling away from the lake. I'm feeling pretty good over here. Hopefully, the iffy temp won't hurt the accumulation too much. Must be nice. Lol. I sat good forever on this one but last second nw shift trying to crush my hopes and dreams. Will see if the trends hold tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 8 hours ago, michaelmantis said: So what is your level of interest? ;-) Considering the 2 inches we got last night was the highlight of the season so far, anything more than that *has* to be exciting for all of us! :-) I'd be not hoping/expecting much near the lake in NE IL but someone between Quad Cities and Collar Counties in IL may get a decent 6ish (+/- 2) event. I’ve been at the point for years now that the only things that excite/interest me snowfall wise are big dogs (or at least medium dogs), record/near record occurrences, and abnormal/significant conditions. This one will be none of the aforementioned most likely, so overall interest is low. However, looks like a solid 2-5”/4-7” kind of situation from SE to NW across the area, with lower amounts near the lake and downtown. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 1/5/2024 at 4:24 AM, A-L-E-K said: Sad Final call 1.5 imby, 4 at ORD $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: $$$ solid call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 After lurking around and watching models for a week thinking I was in a good location here in Alpena, it looks like the rug is being pulled NW. Interesting to see how almost every model has shifted NW in the last day. What happened? Is the NAM reeling this into it's realm or will the models shift back SE? Just a few hundred mile shift has me go from 4" to 16". The low is now forecast to be right offshore of Alpena as a 975ish mb low which leads to precipitation type issues with the E wind over warm Lake Huron. Seen it too many times over the years,unless air temp is under 30 which then develops lake enhanced snow. This one's going to be a nail biter! After December I will take whatever I can get! Just happy to track some storms and read the posts on here taking note of everyone's analysis. Hoping to reel this back SE though! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Watches have gone up for my area. It's looking good for 6+". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Fucking A, didn’t think I would be sweating the NW trend on this one but it’s getting dicey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 45 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Watches have gone up for my area. It's looking good for 6+". Nice - you guys sneakily nabbed this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 20 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Fucking A, didn’t think I would be sweating the NW trend on this one but it’s getting dicey The last few years it seems like the models aren’t all that useful too far out and it comes down to the last 48 hours I get that impression from following you all. I know you guys know what you’re talking about but I think the models are not so reliable Either way, weather is still fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, King James said: The last few years it seems like the models aren’t all that useful too far out and it comes down to the last 48 hours I get that impression from following you all. I know you guys know what you’re talking about but I think the models are not so reliable Either way, weather is still fun Well we haven’t had to be real concerned about the “NW trend” for the past 5+ years, but it appears that it may be a thing again this pattern/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Well we haven’t had to be real concerned about the “NW trend” for the past 5+ years, but it appears that it may be a thing again this pattern/winter As things stand now in the ashes of those insane runs on Friday, the later week/following weekend system could use some northwest trend (from my standpoint), so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Thanks to lake enhancement and small shifts nw, looking better and better for a 6-10" snow around here. Ground solidly covered with 6.5 inches. Finally starting to look like the UP. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: I’ve been at the point for years now that the only things that excite/interest me snowfall wise are big dogs (or at least medium dogs), record/near record occurrences, and abnormal/significant conditions. This one will be none of the aforementioned most likely, so overall interest is low. However, looks like a solid 2-5”/4-7” kind of situation from SE to NW across the area, with lower amounts near the lake and downtown. . Or parties on I-355 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: $$$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 DVN all in with 7-12" forecast for the QCA. Southeast portions of the cwa are now in danger of some mixing/dry slot issues, but should still do pretty well there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Would be ironic if this northwest-trended all the way to a Twin Cities/northern WI event. NAM definitely giving some pause in that regard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 21 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: DVN all in with 7-12" forecast for the QCA. Southeast portions of the cwa are now in danger of some mixing/dry slot issues, but should still do pretty well there. I would strongly lean toward the 7" for most. I'm surprised they put 12" as a possible high end of the range. They currently have 6-11 for Cedar Rapids. I think 5-8 is more realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I would strongly lean toward the 7" for most. I'm surprised they put 12" as a possible high end of the range. They currently have 6-11 for Cedar Rapids. I think 5-8 is more realistic. Yeah. I can see this being a situation where official totals end up north of 7-8" but for the casual observer it'll seem more like a 5-7" type of event. It's not realistic for me to be here every 6hrs to measure so I'm assuming my total will be less than DVN/MLI lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now