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1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm


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6 minutes ago, mnchaserguy said:


I’d honestly be happy if we squeaked out a few inches from this after it looked like a complete miss for us.


.

Agreed, any accumulations whatsoever will be a score for me. We need to lay down something resembling a snowpack for the incoming arctic air. 

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

i guess we've reached that point...

So what is your level of interest? ;-)

Considering the 2 inches we got last night was the highlight of the season so far, anything more than that *has* to be exciting for all of us! :-)

I'd be not hoping/expecting much near the lake in NE IL but someone between Quad Cities and Collar Counties in IL may get a decent 6ish (+/- 2) event. 

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Man 0z euro painful here. Right on the mixing line. Brutal cutoff. I'm not liking where I sit at all. Feel like Iowa is wheeling this one in slowly. Still hoping for a slight se correction in next day or so. If these trends continue tomorrow I'm probably out of this one. 

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2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The nw trend on the Euro continues.  Higher totals are pulling away from the lake.  I'm feeling pretty good over here.  Hopefully, the iffy temp won't hurt the accumulation too much.

image.thumb.png.1336d10f31bd50f5e3228ed094913de9.png

Must be nice. Lol. I sat good forever on this one but last second nw shift trying to crush my hopes and dreams. Will see if the trends hold tomorrow. 

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8 hours ago, michaelmantis said:
So what is your level of interest? ;-)
Considering the 2 inches we got last night was the highlight of the season so far, anything more than that *has* to be exciting for all of us! :-)
I'd be not hoping/expecting much near the lake in NE IL but someone between Quad Cities and Collar Counties in IL may get a decent 6ish (+/- 2) event. 


I’ve been at the point for years now that the only things that excite/interest me snowfall wise are big dogs (or at least medium dogs), record/near record occurrences, and abnormal/significant conditions. This one will be none of the aforementioned most likely, so overall interest is low.

However, looks like a solid 2-5”/4-7” kind of situation from SE to NW across the area, with lower amounts near the lake and downtown.


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After lurking around and watching models for a week thinking I was in a good location here in Alpena, it looks like the rug is being pulled NW. Interesting to see how almost every model has shifted NW in the last day. What happened? Is the NAM reeling this into it's realm or will the models shift back SE? Just a few hundred mile shift has me go from 4" to 16". The low is now forecast to be right offshore of Alpena as a 975ish mb low which leads to precipitation type issues with the E wind over warm Lake Huron. Seen it too many times over the years,unless air temp is under 30 which then develops lake enhanced snow. This one's going to be a nail biter! After December I will take whatever I can get! Just happy to track some storms and read the posts on here taking note of everyone's analysis. Hoping to reel this back SE though!

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20 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Fucking A, didn’t think I would be sweating the NW trend on this one but it’s getting dicey 

The last few years it seems like the models aren’t all that useful too far out and it comes down to the last 48 hours 

 

I get that impression from following you all. I know you guys know what you’re talking about but I think the models are not so reliable 

Either way, weather is still fun 

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1 minute ago, King James said:

The last few years it seems like the models aren’t all that useful too far out and it comes down to the last 48 hours 

 

I get that impression from following you all. I know you guys know what you’re talking about but I think the models are not so reliable 

Either way, weather is still fun 

Well we haven’t had to be real concerned about the “NW trend” for the past 5+ years, but it appears that it may be a thing again this pattern/winter 

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21 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Well we haven’t had to be real concerned about the “NW trend” for the past 5+ years, but it appears that it may be a thing again this pattern/winter 

As things stand now in the ashes of those insane runs on Friday, the later week/following weekend system could use some northwest trend (from my standpoint), so :thumbsup:

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8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:


I’ve been at the point for years now that the only things that excite/interest me snowfall wise are big dogs (or at least medium dogs), record/near record occurrences, and abnormal/significant conditions. This one will be none of the aforementioned most likely, so overall interest is low.

However, looks like a solid 2-5”/4-7” kind of situation from SE to NW across the area, with lower amounts near the lake and downtown.


.

Or parties on I-355

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21 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

DVN all in with 7-12" forecast for the QCA.  Southeast portions of the cwa are now in danger of some mixing/dry slot issues, but should still do pretty well there.

I would strongly lean toward the 7" for most.  I'm surprised they put 12" as a possible high end of the range.  They currently have 6-11 for Cedar Rapids.  I think 5-8 is more realistic.

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11 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I would strongly lean toward the 7" for most.  I'm surprised they put 12" as a possible high end of the range.  They currently have 6-11 for Cedar Rapids.  I think 5-8 is more realistic.

Yeah.  I can see this being a situation where official totals end up north of 7-8" but for the casual observer it'll seem more like a 5-7" type of event.  It's not realistic for me to be here every 6hrs to measure so I'm assuming my total will be less than DVN/MLI lol.

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