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1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm


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850mb doesn’t heat up as much on the EPS as it does on the GEFS. With this track I’d tend to lean more with the GEFS unless this trends back southeast
Every storm is different and you may very well be right, but the GFS/GEFS has been a bit too amped at this range with southwest type systems at this range over the past few winters. It's gonna be close and I feel better out here than I would in the city. The EPS mean SLP track has also jogged NW some vs. previous cycles.


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Keep n mind that's 10-1. Will be closer to 7:1 and in a tough environment 
Here's the depth change mean. The answer is probably somewhere between this and the Kuchera ratio stuff. 10:1 ens maps at least give a good idea of the heavier snow swath. 67e72722f6573897e2bd288256587fa9.jpg



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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Every storm is different and you may very well be right, but the GFS/GEFS has been a bit too amped at this range with southwest type systems at this range over the past few winters. It's gonna be close and I feel better out here than I would in the city. The EPS mean SLP track has also jogged NW some vs. previous cycles.

 

IMG_3475.gif.0808588ce33738919c83a6cabe821a76.gif

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18Z NAM still doing that thing where it weirdly sends the surface low way further north.

You'd think, with the triple point going across the IA/IL/WI border region, it would be setting the stage for a midwinter Midwest :twister:outbreak; but the moisture still stays confined to the immediate Gulf coastal region.

Would love that track if it was April or May (heck, even March, that's gotten it done plenty of times in this region in recent years).

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looking more and more like it will be two distinct parts to the event here.  one light snow swath with the WAA Monday night and early Tuesday, then a higher potential snowfall Tuesday evening with the defo band as the low wraps up south of Chicago

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Downtown chicago here… beating a dead horse but would much rather be on the northern fringe than the southern fringe of the defo axis for this one, especially with the warm lake. This one’s either gonna be nothing or a nice 5-6” imo.

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I wouldn't be surprised at a similar snow distribution to 11/25/2018 if the track doesn't nudge back southeast.

Don't discount the front end thump being productive though even into the city. Consider that a relatively modest upper wave produced localized 5" amounts with a similar thermal profile last night.

Where you have strong lift well aligned with the DGZ, and steep lapse rates in the DGZ, you can get pockets of higher ratios even with temps around freezing. That's something the Kuchera maps won't pick up on.




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As the track shifts NW I’m putting all my eggs into the basket of wave one. Could manage 3”-6” and hope the rain doesn’t melt all of it away. Would make for a slushy commute. Seems like the 2nd wave will be relatively minimal this far east.

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