Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,601
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm


 Share

Recommended Posts

850mb doesn’t heat up as much on the EPS as it does on the GEFS. With this track I’d tend to lean more with the GEFS unless this trends back southeast
Every storm is different and you may very well be right, but the GFS/GEFS has been a bit too amped at this range with southwest type systems at this range over the past few winters. It's gonna be close and I feel better out here than I would in the city. The EPS mean SLP track has also jogged NW some vs. previous cycles.


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Keep n mind that's 10-1. Will be closer to 7:1 and in a tough environment 
Here's the depth change mean. The answer is probably somewhere between this and the Kuchera ratio stuff. 10:1 ens maps at least give a good idea of the heavier snow swath. 67e72722f6573897e2bd288256587fa9.jpg



  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Every storm is different and you may very well be right, but the GFS/GEFS has been a bit too amped at this range with southwest type systems at this range over the past few winters. It's gonna be close and I feel better out here than I would in the city. The EPS mean SLP track has also jogged NW some vs. previous cycles.

 

IMG_3475.gif.0808588ce33738919c83a6cabe821a76.gif

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z NAM still doing that thing where it weirdly sends the surface low way further north.

You'd think, with the triple point going across the IA/IL/WI border region, it would be setting the stage for a midwinter Midwest :twister:outbreak; but the moisture still stays confined to the immediate Gulf coastal region.

Would love that track if it was April or May (heck, even March, that's gotten it done plenty of times in this region in recent years).

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

looking more and more like it will be two distinct parts to the event here.  one light snow swath with the WAA Monday night and early Tuesday, then a higher potential snowfall Tuesday evening with the defo band as the low wraps up south of Chicago

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Downtown chicago here… beating a dead horse but would much rather be on the northern fringe than the southern fringe of the defo axis for this one, especially with the warm lake. This one’s either gonna be nothing or a nice 5-6” imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't be surprised at a similar snow distribution to 11/25/2018 if the track doesn't nudge back southeast.

Don't discount the front end thump being productive though even into the city. Consider that a relatively modest upper wave produced localized 5" amounts with a similar thermal profile last night.

Where you have strong lift well aligned with the DGZ, and steep lapse rates in the DGZ, you can get pockets of higher ratios even with temps around freezing. That's something the Kuchera maps won't pick up on.




  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As the track shifts NW I’m putting all my eggs into the basket of wave one. Could manage 3”-6” and hope the rain doesn’t melt all of it away. Would make for a slushy commute. Seems like the 2nd wave will be relatively minimal this far east.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...