WeatherMonger Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Coming down fast enough it has started to coat all surfaces again, a bit surprised to see roads coated. Evening update from ILX expects WAA to move back in later tonight and rain on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Started snowing recently here in southeast/south central Naperville. Coming down at a decent clip but small flake size for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 57 minutes ago, madwx said: 31/29 here. should be off to the races once it starts. would expect snow to begin in 2 hours or so. models have backed off morning snow a bit here but really get things cranking with the defo band in the afternoon Yeah this is looking like its going to be anice hit for us. But I am not looking forward to the drive on 151 during that defo band tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. That's not going to be fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Borchardt coming into work tonight for LOT and just straight up disagreeing with previous shifts snowfall forecast. Loser Wow... Cliff's notes version reading the 822 PM update pretty much is "the snowfall guidance from the prior shift is way too high but the impacts are the same." Flakes in Elgin started around 9:30 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Steady snow at night in January at 32-33 degrees can definitely coat roads. Ground is never all that warm in January. Although I slightly downplayed amounts in NE IL tonight, it'll be slick when it's snowing with this denser wet snow...and some of the obs in this thread from where it's snowing and down to 32-33 seem to suggest it can accum at a half decent rate where the heavier returns are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 SN has begun here Wicker Park 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It's coming down pretty well here now. Serviceable flake size and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: A lot of mixing issues here thus far. Longer than what models depicted. Definitely getting nervous totals going to bust here tonight. I was in Peoria about 1.5 hours ago and drove out to Farmington. In town is was white rain and even on 474 around to the jail. Once I got between jail and Hanna City is was ripping snow and road was pretty bad by 8:20. It took me just under an hour to get from Binny’s to Farmington. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Fwiw...Some pretty big changes on Gfs 00z . Looks more NAMish than even the NAM did 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Borchardt coming into work tonight for LOT and just straight up disagreeing with previous shifts snowfall forecast. Loser Was gonna comment how confused I was reading that. Seems like things trended wetter and maybe snowier across much of the area. I thought 6:1 ratios were expected all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Fwiw...Some pretty big changes on Gfs 00z . Looks more NAMish than even the NAM did GFS has sagged the heavy band down into the city. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: GFS has sagged the heavy band down into the city. Need someone smarter than me to tell me why this won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The updated LOT snow grids are about 1-2" lower on average than the prior, with similar or slightly higher (by about 0.05") QPF. It's not a big change. Storms with a ton of QPF, a period of heavy rates and low ratios are horrible for the roads and are very impactful. With that said, temperatures across most of the LOT forecast area will be 31-33 degrees during most of the snow (warmer along the lake and mainly at or slightly above freezing (even inland) during peak heating). It will be hard to measure high totals. Someone certainly can where the band pivots...2"/hour adds up fast. But where those heavy rates aren't quite as persistent it'll be harder to stack it that fast. Doesn't reduce the impact. Getting 1-1.20" of QPF as wet snow followed by gusty winds is definitely enough of a combo for power-outage concerns, especially where it's near or slightly above freezing for a good portion of the snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 22 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Borchardt coming into work tonight for LOT and just straight up disagreeing with previous shifts snowfall forecast. Loser Sir, this forum is for Midwesterners/Great Lakers only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 So how do the updated grids (which has me at 5-10 for the next 24 hours based on the update Borchardt seems to have done a few minutes ago) match up with this posting from 8:51 PM that shows 8-12 (based on the Probabilistic Forecasts)? Not knocking anyone, just wondering how different numbers can come from a NWS office within an hour of each other and it looks like Borchardt published the 8:51 PM update too? https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: So how do the updated grids (which has me at 5-10 for the next 24 hours based on the update Borchardt seems to have done a few minutes ago) match up with this posting from 8:51 PM that shows 8-12 (based on the Probabilistic Forecasts)? Not knocking anyone, just wondering how different numbers can come from a NWS office within an hour of each other and it looks like Borchardt published the 8:51 PM update too? https://www.weather.gov/lot/winter I'm seeing snow maps on that page from 3:36 PM still. I looked at the NDFD (NWS forecast grids) on WxBell, the snow amounts went down about 1-2" from the 3:36 PM forecast. The rest of my post isn't addressed at anyone in particular so not lecturing, just explaining. I'm not sure what LOT does, but in eastern region we have mandatory near term updates every 3 hours. I'm guessing they have similar at LOT. Evening shift is more than entitled to another look at the forecast based on observed trends, rapid update models, early arriving 0z models, etc...and yes even another set of eyes. Different mets are allowed to have slightly different interpretations. Evening shift involves a full set of TAF (airport forecast) updates which is extremely important for ORD and MDW. It's also the last look at the forecast before the morning commute, so if it's snowing during the morning commute it's the last chance to message it with leadtime. I don't see this as a drastic change by LOT this evening or as anything that's out of the ordinary to tweak a high-impact forecast for an ongoing winter storm. Given how mild this storm is, slightly lower numbers are always a risk. Still should be fun and exciting tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Started with solid curtains of snow. Now rain. Another round of heavier returns about to pass over so we shall see… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 In Plainfield atm. This band that's about to pass overhead is going to rip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 hour ago, WeatherMonger said: ... Imagine being in MI tonight. Half of them have traded off a storm for a championship and the other half traded off a championship for a storm I'll take the National Championship thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, Lightning said: I'll take the National Championship thank you Congrats! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Decent band over i-80. Aurora looking good coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 In Plainfield atm. This hand that's about to pass overhead is going to rip Bright band.CC shows it’s a mix or rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 A little over an inch here now. Ratios are definitely less than 10:1, a very dense snow. Gonna have a long lull later tonight before rippage sets in towards sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Bright band. CC shows it’s a mix or rain. . Mega parachutes but not super thick rates is the best I can put it. Starting to whiten up the ground just a tad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, Malacka11 said: Mega parachutes but not super thick rates is the best I can put it. Starting to whiten up the ground just a tad though. Makes sense, it's starting to fill in on CC now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2.7" down so far. HRRR is extremely bullish on the defo band tomorrow. If it's right, 10-12 could be achievable. 6" is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Now it's pouring like a mother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 ... And now it's SN+ again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Had just started to snow when I left ORD at 10. Got home a bit a go, and have solid SN here with fat aggregates falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I'm at 3.1". The next several hours should be mostly lighter snow, so I'm hitting the sack. The heavier deformation snow arrives early in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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