1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm

[ChiTownSnow]

That deform is cranking..

[tuanis]

19 minutes ago, Baum said:

oh ye of little faith.......

You’re 15 or so miles from the lake vs. my 5. You’ll do much better than I.

[Baum]

1 minute ago, tuanis said:

You’re 15 or so miles from the lake vs. my 5. You’ll do much better than I.

21.6  miles to be exact

[ChiTownSnow]

Someone said it earlier.. Gonna be a nowcast scenario due to the potential 

[cyclone77]

9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We reached 34º or 35º this afternoon, but once the snow began this evening it stuck to the pavement immediately.  There is not a single wet spot anywhere.  Perhaps the strengthening wind helped cool the pavement.

Guidance continues to sag southeast.  Fortunately, even though we won't get the heaviest snow, models still show my area solidly within the decent defo zone through the day tomorrow.

It's actually the warmest of the day so far here at 34.  So far all the snow is melting, but it's still pretty light.

[Stebo]

25 minutes ago, Chinook said:

this was earlier today, with over 60mph winds creating severe blizzard conditions in some areas of Kansas

 

DDC gusted to 54 GCK 67 Guymon OK, 74 and Raton NM 90.

[Chinook]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

DDC gusted to 54 GCK 67 Guymon OK, 74 and Raton NM 90.

downslopin.... yikes, blow your roof off. Well, anyway, some people in Kansas/Colorado will have some stories of extreme conditions and 5-10 ft snow drifts.

[fluoronium]

Precip started as snow here, then switched to a mostly rainy mix. Models had all snow for me at this point

[homedis]

You’re 15 or so miles from the lake vs. my 5. You’ll do much better than I.

1.2 miles here. Im gonna get all rain, arent I?

[hawkeye_wx]

Interestingly, the 00z NAMs expanded the heavier totals back to Cedar Rapids.  That seems to be an outlier, though.  I'm still going in expecting 6-8", with anything more a nice bonus.

We must be near 1" already.  It has been snowing pretty good for 90 minutes and there is no grass showing.

[wegoweather]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Interestingly, the 00z NAMs expanded the heavier totals back to Cedar Rapids.  That seems to be an outlier, though.  I'm still going in expecting 6-8", with anything more being a bonus.

NAM back NW a bit and a little wamer for Chicago metro. 

[Stebo]

At this point I would be riding the obs.

[cyclone77]

6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Interestingly, the 00z NAMs expanded the heavier totals back to Cedar Rapids.  That seems to be an outlier, though.  I'm still going in expecting 6-8", with anything more a nice bonus.

It's really gonna be interesting to see how these LSRs work out.  

Snow is coming down harder now and is sticking to everything, temp bumped back to 33.

[madwx]

31/29 here.  should be off to the races once it starts.  would expect snow to begin in 2 hours or so.  models have backed off morning snow a bit here but really get things cranking with the defo band in the afternoon

[tuanis]

14 minutes ago, homedis said:

1.2 miles here. Im gonna get all rain, arent I?

I really think the LOT has the right idea here. Except there will prob be some liquid up here too.

[Radtechwxman]

14 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

Precip started as snow here, then switched to a mostly rainy mix. Models had all snow for me at this point

I'm having the same issues so I feel this 

[RCNYILWX]

I really think the LOT has the right idea here. Except there will prob be some liquid up here too.

I think your latitude helps but if there's gonna be an issue in Lake County it'll be the southeast.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, tuanis said:

I really think the LOT has the right idea here. Except there will prob be some liquid up here too.

That's a great idea for depicting different zones.

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 minute ago, cyclone77 said:

That's a great idea for depicting different zones.

Very “public” friendly too, gives the normies a fair idea of what to actually expect 

[RCNYILWX]

^Thanks! Feedback like that is helpful for us, as we constantly fine tune out graphics. We've gotten a lot of good feedback on the ptype timeline since we went to it over the past few years.

[WeatherMonger]

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm having the same issues so I feel this 

Snow lasted about 15 more minutes after my post earlier. Switched to rain then had a dry blob push through and back to rain after. Currently white rain and 34.

Really not invested in tonight as it all gets washed away with rain tomorrow, would rather be surprised tomorrow evening and night than tonight.

Imagine being in MI tonight. Half of them have traded off a storm for a championship and the other half traded off a championship for a storm

[Radtechwxman]

That dryslot is really punching north in MO. Curious how this will impact the event. Most cams fill back in the dryslot as the sfc low lifts closer and upper dynamics approach area. 

[CIllinoisSnow]

29 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

Precip started as snow here, then switched to a mostly rainy mix. Models had all snow for me at this point

I just went through a little bit of a lull in the rain, temp went from 34.3 to 35.2 in about 20 minutes lol, luckily i wasn’t expecting a whole lot tonight anyways

[hawkeye_wx]

I already have 2.1 inches on my snow boards after only 2.5 hours of snow.

[fluoronium]

23 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm having the same issues so I feel this 

It switched back to snow here (near Metamora) and it's sticking pretty well now. Hopefully it can stay this way for the rest of the night.

[Radtechwxman]

5 minutes ago, fluoronium said:

It switched back to snow here (near Metamora) and it's sticking pretty well now. Hopefully it can stay this way for the rest of the night.

Yeah it's snow here now. But back edge of precip doesn't look super far away. Hopefully it keeps filling in. 

[OHweather]

Was just looking at some soundings for northern IL/Chicago and vicinity...my impression is to keep expectations somewhat modest for tonight but holy cow it could dump during the day Tuesday, especially in the late morning through mid-afternoon timeframe. 

The incoming precip is steady but there isn't any heavy mesoscale banding or anything like that, just a typical warm air advection slug...there are some disorganized more intense bursts, and these soundings from both the NAM and HRRR suggest that'll continue to be the characteristic of the precip as it lifts north tonight:

Both models have a deep saturated layer with weak to moderate lift so it will steadily precipitate. Both soundings are solidly cold enough for snow above the immediate surface...with room to wet-bulb a couple degrees from current temperatures it should be able to settle to 32-33 where it's steadily snowing away from the immediate lakeshore in urban heat island. These areas (downtown and immediate lakeshore) will struggle to cool below 34-35...there probably will be some bursts that lightly accumulate on elevated surfaces pretty close to the lakeshore tonight, but they will get noticeably less than farther inland. While there is weakened stability above the DGZ, both models have very weak mean omega in the DGZ. This suggests that it will generally be a steady light to moderate, fairly low-quality wet snow. However, there will be brief times where lift gets into the DGZ with brief embedded bursts that are more convective. This will result in transient heavier and fluffier snow with larger flakes. Kind of seems like a 1-3" type deal (most areas a bit inland 2-3") for tonight's leg. 

Now, during the day Tuesday there's a forced convective band wrapping into the deformation zone/CCB. This results in TROWAL development and increased low to mid-level frontogenesis as the TROWAL wraps into the colder air.

Good agreement on the hi-res NAM and HRRR soundings. The above-mentioned forcing will allow for banded precipitation to develop with strong lift through a deep column, including in above the DGZ, with model soundings depicting weakened stability (certainly some slantwise instability) above the DGZ. This will be conducive to much heavier snow with larger flakes. Seems like this pivots from NW or North Central IL into southern/eastern WI for at least a few hours during the late morning and early-mid afternoon. As LOT's AFD mentioned, probably will be a very sharp snowfall gradient closer to the lake, as there will be a milder flow off the lake, along with the best banding likely setting up just slightly inland. It will not be terribly cold, so where the heavier rates are not present it won't accumulate as efficiently during the day. Along the lakeshore from Chicago south should cool towards freezing 1-4z as winds finally turn more northwesterly all the way to the lake, though by then the amount of lift left will be modest so any accums from downtown points south will be light at most. 

[cyclone77]

18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I already have 2.1 inches on my snow boards after only 2.5 hours of snow.

Wow, you're doing well there.  Just a few tenths here but heavier returns struggled to get in here until just now.  It's caking to trees so wondering if power outages could become an issue when the higher winds hit.

[Thundersnow12]

Borchardt coming into work tonight for LOT and just straight up disagreeing with previous shifts snowfall forecast. Loser 

[Natester]

3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Wow, you're doing well there.  Just a few tenths here but heavier returns struggled to get in here until just now.  It's caking to trees so wondering if power outages could become an issue when the higher winds hit.

Yeah, that's what I was worried about today, the temps at snow onset.  Thankfully the snow is like pixie dust here and very little in the way of accumulation on trees and powerlines.  Temp just below freezing (31F)