1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm

[mimillman]

850mb doesn’t heat up as much on the EPS as it does on the GEFS. With this track I’d tend to lean more with the GEFS unless this trends back southeast

[RCNYILWX]

12z EPS... much better for the lake shore than the GEFS.

24-hour 4"+ probs

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[ChiTownSnow]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z EPS... much better for the lake shore than the GEFS.

Keep n mind that's 10-1. Will be closer to 7:1 and in a tough environment 

[RCNYILWX]

850mb doesn’t heat up as much on the EPS as it does on the GEFS. With this track I’d tend to lean more with the GEFS unless this trends back southeast

Every storm is different and you may very well be right, but the GFS/GEFS has been a bit too amped at this range with southwest type systems at this range over the past few winters. It's gonna be close and I feel better out here than I would in the city. The EPS mean SLP track has also jogged NW some vs. previous cycles.

[RCNYILWX]

Keep n mind that's 10-1. Will be closer to 7:1 and in a tough environment 

Here's the depth change mean. The answer is probably somewhere between this and the Kuchera ratio stuff. 10:1 ens maps at least give a good idea of the heavier snow swath.

[Thundersnow12]

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Every storm is different and you may very well be right, but the GFS/GEFS has been a bit too amped at this range with southwest type systems at this range over the past few winters. It's gonna be close and I feel better out here than I would in the city. The EPS mean SLP track has also jogged NW some vs. previous cycles.

 

[Harry Perry]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Call looking $$$

[CheeselandSkies]

18Z NAM still doing that thing where it weirdly sends the surface low way further north.

You'd think, with the triple point going across the IA/IL/WI border region, it would be setting the stage for a midwinter Midwest outbreak; but the moisture still stays confined to the immediate Gulf coastal region.

Would love that track if it was April or May (heck, even March, that's gotten it done plenty of times in this region in recent years).

[Sciascia]

Just imagine if the NAM pulls a coup on the way north track.

[ChiTownSnow]

Starting to show that brutal cutoff in NE IL

[Sciascia]

Kuchera map for 18z GFS

[SchaumburgStormer]

Gfs wants to make sure LOT has to sweat it’s forecast and headlines till the bitter end.

 

[Sciascia]

Showing the snow band shifts over the last 13 GFS runs.

[CheeselandSkies]

[ChiTownSnow]

3 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Showing the snow band shifts over the last 13 GFS runs.

#2 please

[madwx]

looking more and more like it will be two distinct parts to the event here.  one light snow swath with the WAA Monday night and early Tuesday, then a higher potential snowfall Tuesday evening with the defo band as the low wraps up south of Chicago

[snowman33]

If I was in McHenry County I'd be feeling pretty good right now. In downtown Chicago not so much. Well, we can't say we haven't been through plenty of storms like that.

[ChiTownSnow]

Cook county (city) looking like they may have the dreaded front end miss south and deform miss north.. eeek

These wave 1 and wave 2 are tricky as if both under/over perform you bust 

 

[TheNiño]

Being so close to the warm lake isn’t going to do me any favors on this one even in SE WI. Starting to prepare for a sloppy mix.

[homedis]

Downtown chicago here… beating a dead horse but would much rather be on the northern fringe than the southern fringe of the defo axis for this one, especially with the warm lake. This one’s either gonna be nothing or a nice 5-6” imo.

[RCNYILWX]

I wouldn't be surprised at a similar snow distribution to 11/25/2018 if the track doesn't nudge back southeast.

Don't discount the front end thump being productive though even into the city. Consider that a relatively modest upper wave produced localized 5" amounts with a similar thermal profile last night.

Where you have strong lift well aligned with the DGZ, and steep lapse rates in the DGZ, you can get pockets of higher ratios even with temps around freezing. That's something the Kuchera maps won't pick up on.

[Radtechwxman]

18z euro jump nw. Man. This nw trend can stop anyday now. Has mixing line right on me. Hoping for slight correction back se 

[Chambana]

My call looking good too. Rainer with back end 1” slop. Will gladly pass on this for the looming Goliath late next week. 

[sbnwx85]

As the track shifts NW I’m putting all my eggs into the basket of wave one. Could manage 3”-6” and hope the rain doesn’t melt all of it away. Would make for a slushy commute. Seems like the 2nd wave will be relatively minimal this far east.

[SchaumburgStormer]

18z euro isn’t a bad solution for most of NW LOT. No real break between the waves so you have 24-27 hours of snow stacking to 8” or so 

[IWXwx]

On 1/3/2024 at 2:42 PM, IWXwx said:

   FWA

 

[Sciascia]

00z NAM:

Snow output in N IL weirdly spotty with 6 in Kane & DeKalb county but only 3-4 north of that.

The low tracked through the middle of lower Wisconsin.

[KeenerWx]

Look at that gradient in far NE IL into N IN 

[Sciascia]

This storm is close enough to be on the HRRR. You’ll see the low placement at 48hrs in the lower left vs. the new 00z NAM

[OrdIowPitMsp]

24 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

00z NAM:

Snow output in N IL weirdly spotty with 6 in Kane & DeKalb county but only 3-4 north of that.

The low tracked through the middle of lower Wisconsin.

5.5” imby? Probably a toss but it has my attention.