1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

What is this purple and pink rectangle at Detroit? A car for the Motor City?

That's the DTW blob of wx BS. 

Meanwhile, 16" at my place. Nice!

[RogueWaves]

I'm liking this and foresee less extreme wobbles moving forward. Recon input may be helping dial things in sooner.

[Chinook]

17 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

That's the DTW blob of wx BS. 

Meanwhile, 16" at my place. Nice!

Another depiction of the ECMWF precip type just shows rain for SE Mich at that time frame

[RogueWaves]

Anyone that can explain this new (to me) phenomenon I bolded, please feel free to enlighten. 

 

GRR

4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE),
indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low
tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980
mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature
minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we
are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2
or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are
several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers
relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong
positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could
be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere.

[WeatherMonger]

NOAA flight Plan for today

 

[Stevo6899]

If the gfs ends up verifying, I'd imagine there would be blizzard warnings for the grr area. Only a few hour drive away. Canadian has a totally different evolution and track. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

#ChefsKiss

 

[Radtechwxman]

Euro is a torch. Lol. Deformation band is mostly a mix. Snow amounts terrible 

[Stevo6899]

Just now, StormChaser4Life said:

Euro is a torch. Lol. Deformation band is mostly a mix 

Yea I think with a low that strong, there will be more dynamic cooling that the models aren't portraying. A track from NE Arkansas to Cleveland is usually good for most of Michigan. Interesting to see the euro look more like earlier gfs runs and the latest gfs took a step towards the euro.

[Radtechwxman]

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea I think with a low that strong, there will be more dynamic cooling that the models aren't portraying. A track from NE Arkansas to Cleveland is usually good for most of Michigan. Interesting to see the euro look more like earlier gfs runs and the latest gfs took a step towards the euro.

Definitely would think with a system that dynamic that deformation band would change to solid snow in the heavy precip. Hopefully sampling soon will help models resolve this. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Definitely would think with a system that dynamic that deformation band would change to solid snow in the heavy precip. Hopefully sampling soon will help models resolve this. 

Also devoid of precip for a good amount of time. Really strange evolution 

[Radtechwxman]

3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Also devoid of precip for a good amount of time. Really strange evolution 

Wondering if it's having convective feedback issues

[SchaumburgStormer]

22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Wondering if it's having convective feedback issues

Must be. A 986 deepening low sitting over Carbondale, but barely throwing precip to Champaign seems off. 

[Radtechwxman]

58 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Must be. A 986 deepening low sitting over Carbondale, but barely throwing precip to Champaign seems off. 

The EPS looks better

[RCNYILWX]

The EPS looks better

Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles.

[Radtechwxman]

39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles.




 

OP euro was definitely struggling with the thermals. It's a shame this system doesn't have a nice arctic air mass to work with. Pretty much depending on intense precip in def band to dynamically cool column for snow. Ratios going to be low. Someone nearby will get warning criteria snowfall but this easily could have been a widespread foot plus for a bigger area if antecedent air mass was colder. 

[A-L-E-K]

Sad 

Final call 1.5 imby, 4 at ORD

[King James]

Fading ALEK - wide spread 8+ inches for entire area. Only call. 

[Cary67]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Sad 

Final call 1.5 imby, 4 at ORD

Ground zero: Fox River Grove 5.2"

[Baum]

you have to start somewhere.

[A-L-E-K]

laying down a nice base for the 30+ the 6z GFS is selling

[mimillman]

4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Another example of the importance of the ensembles at this range. The east coast system this weekend is a good case in point - there's still been noteworthy run to run swings by the operational runs in the last few model cycles.




 

6z EPS looks very similar. I’d say the ensembles have been remarkably consistent for this range.

[ChiTownSnow]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Sad 

Final call 1.5 imby, 4 at ORD

Of rain?

[Sciascia]

Here’s the final frame of the 12z NAM:

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Here’s the final frame of the 12z NAM:

Same general look as the Euro. Liking the model agreement. 

 

[nvck]

Hoping we don't just get a bunch of wind and rain here, but it's increasingly looking that way :/ , at least we should have an inch or 2 tomorrow as a winter teaser 

[wxman_ind]

11 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Anyone that can explain this new (to me) phenomenon I bolded, please feel free to enlighten. 

 

GRR

4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE),
indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low
tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980
mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature
minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we
are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2
or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are
several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers
relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong
positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could
be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere.

from the ECMWF website, which can explain it better than I:

"Extreme values of EFI (close to +1 or -1) and positive values of SOT signify that a very unusual event is expected." SOT is shift of tails.

[SchaumburgStormer]

A number of the ensemble outliers have tightened up, starting to get some confidence in a good hit. 

 

[CoalCityWxMan]

Details aside, it sure is nice to have winter weather to track again. Last winter was largely a bust, 2022 was alright but would've been unremarkable if it weren't for the early Feb storm. Seems like Feb '21 was the last time we had a period of back-to-back systems to track like this, let's keep it rolling.

[RCNYILWX]

A number of the ensemble outliers have tightened up, starting to get some confidence in a good hit. 
 

The GEFS actually likes interior northern Illinois down to west central IL more - definitely been consistently west of the op. Should see a tightening of the spread the next couple cycles.

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