Thundersnow12 Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 6:1 ratios in the heart of winter with a deep SLP is rough 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, dmc76 said: The hills were that 1 degree colder. Most locals got over 10” some over 12” 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: The point is that may be the only storm the past few winters that didn't end up weaker/se than what the euro depicted 4/5 days out. I think the fact that detroit had mixing issues is why I didnt recall that event. But even during the event, I remember the models were still spitting out crazy amounts like a widespread 15-20". Probably the rare instance where a storm didn't trend drier before the onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 20 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 6:1 ratios in the heart of winter with a deep SLP is rough El Nino winter FTL. Love some cement snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Let’s get 8” of 6:1 down and freeze it into a glacier that will last till may. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 EPS mean 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 39 minutes ago, hlcater said: EPS mean Lock that up and throw away the key for northern MO and the Chicago area. For me? I say shove that pink south about 150 miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Hopefully goes more east by a bit. Let’s get our Ohio folks some love too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: El Nino winter FTL. Love some cement snow You would have enjoyed last winter in SE MI then. Multiple good cement snowstorms. ANY snow is better than no snow, and wet snow is beautiful, but Im a powder person lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, michsnowfreak said: You would have enjoyed last winter in SE MI then. Multiple good cement snowstorms. ANY snow is better than no snow, and wet snow is beautiful, but Im a powder person lol. At least the cement snow makes for some awesome pictures. Love the morning after a good paste job by Mother Nature. But on the contrary I would love a nice blowing snow and drifting event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It looks like this will be the first large winter storm for northeast lower MI...for now. I raked up the residual autumn leaves in my front yard around Xmas, first time ever. Haven't touched a snow shovel since last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 34 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: You would have enjoyed last winter in SE MI then. Multiple good cement snowstorms. ANY snow is better than no snow, and wet snow is beautiful, but Im a powder person lol. It was very much sarcasm. Lol. But I will take anything at this point! Snow is snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z GFS makes tomorrow/Sat morning into a nice little table-setter if it can verify. No one is gonna throw away an inch or two even before the pattern sets up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18Z GFS doing some weird shit with low location/precip depiction, but it appears to be north of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: 18Z GFS doing some weird shit with low location/precip depiction, but it appears to be north of the 12z run. Struggling to get out of the Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Struggling to get out of the Rockies Has the low just ping ponging around the the texas states to, but has it at 983 over evansville, IN at 123.... then to IND... Then to Gary. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Thermals are a nail biter on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Has the low just ping ponging around the the texas states to, but has it at 983 over evansville, IN at 123 There's room for improvement as well if it gets its act together sooner, ejecting out of the Rockies and reforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 OP run was fucky, so let hope the ensembles hold serve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 board will burnt to a crisp my Monday's 12Z runs. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Went from the northern edge of the best snows at 12z GFS to nearly being all rain on the 18z GFS. Split the difference, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Warm air over a luke warm lake for city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 14 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Went from the northern edge of the best snows at 12z GFS to nearly being all rain on the 18z GFS. Split the difference, right? well that was a gross run for my area. Lots of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 A little bit more spread, but more members are joining the NW camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I'm not gonna watch any models until 12Z Monday.....Not! Kind of enjoying the emotional rollercoaster, LOL. Also looks good down the road so we could be looking at snow on snow, which we have not had in a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Now we are cooking. Fun to watch this board come alive. Looking forward to reading all your guys comments. Let’s go! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Model blend through first system and then the 10-day total. Shifted north a tad from yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Curious if the Polar Vortex split pushes everything SE a bit?? It happened back in 13-14 a few times, although the PV orientation is different this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Wow! Grand Rapids in taking this seriously... -- Increased chances for impactful mid-week winter storm -- Confidence is growing that there will be a winter storm either directly impacting or in the vicinity of Lower Michigan. In fact, ensemble guidance has begun to converge on a solution that, should it occur, would be reminiscent of our recent December 22, 2022 blizzard. This would mean widespread snow accumulations well over 6 inches, followed by lake effect snow along with very strong northwest winds that could produce blizzard-like conditions Wednesday morning. However, precipitation type is far from certain; a significant rain component remains possible and this could significantly curtail snow accumulations. While what`s described above is far from certain at this point, I still feel it is worth mentioning now as a possibility for the following reasons: 1) It is not too early to be thinking about contingency plans for possible travel and power disruptions next week. 2) There has been a signal for a major pattern shift starting nearly a week ago. This has consistently featured a deep, strongly phased western U.S. trough resulting in surface cyclogenesis in the lee of southern Rockies. These have a strong climatological propensity to track northeast towards the Ohio Valley, often while deepening. 3) Past storms in recent memory exhibiting this pattern showed remarkable predictability and consistency in model guidance leading right up to the event. This presumably has much to do with inherent predictability associated with deep longwave troughs such as the one we`re dealing with now. 4) Ensemble solutions, particularly the ECWMF Ensemble (ECE), indicate potential for explosive cyclogenesis as the surface low tracks toward the Ohio Valley. The ECE mean MSLP has dropped to 980 mb, which would imply that several ensemble member solutions feature minimum pressures significantly less than that. Not surprisingly, we are now seeing Shift of Tails (SoT) values in the ECE approaching 2 or greater over parts of Lower Michigan. This means that there are several ensemble member solutions behaving as extreme outliers relative to ECE model climatology. This also emphasizes strong positional sensitivity to the forecast when dealing with what could be a very deep surface low setting up somewhere. While it`s easy to focus on what snow occurs (which undoubtedly could be especially jarring given the winter that we`ve had so far), we are just as concerned about the wind threat that may manifest on the back side of the exiting, deepening low. The official forecast will continue to smear wind speeds downward due to averaging of model solutions, but it should be noted that we could in fact experience very significant northwest winds and gusts that may impact much of Lower Michigan sometime in the middle of the coming week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 What is this purple and pink rectangle at Detroit? A car for the Motor City? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: What is this purple and pink rectangle at Detroit? A car for the Motor City? Turtle trap, has one in the vicinity and another one curious coming from the IN border...... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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