HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Dw guys it’s coming home. Chicago folks need to get their barometers ready and put eurythmics on blast 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Substantial uptick in snowfall/QPF for most of the Lakes/Midwest on the 12z GEFS mean vs. the 06z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 One reason to be cautiously optimistic about this system delivering a high-end event is that, unlike the past several seasons, we finally have an active STJ with the borderline strong El Nino, which should help to keep the southern stream wave from shearing apart. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I think this a good visual reminder about models this far out. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I will use my iron Kantian will to force this storm to track perfectly for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Normally I would be concerned about not having the euro on my side but the euro was really bad and overamped on several occasions the past few winters. We haven't seen a storm like this in years and the trend has been SE and not as wound up. With that being said, this has ghd written all over it and overdue for a nw trend/bomb like this. In a strong el nino winter, the last thing I thought I'd have to worry about is a low tracking overhead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro definitely aggressive with that warm nose and dry slot into IL. Dangerously close here. Something to watch as these strong lows always pull up a lot of warm air and a big dry slot and models tend to underestimate them. Hoping track doesn't go anymore nw from where it is, ha. But nw trend wouldn't shock me one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 24 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Euro definitely aggressive with that warm nose and dry slot into IL. Dangerously close here. Something to watch as these strong lows always pull up a lot of warm air and a big dry slot and models tend to underestimate them. Hoping track doesn't go anymore nw from where it is, ha. But nw trend wouldn't shock me one bit. yeah thermals are concerning. Cold rain or a back end paste job is not out of the question here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
therock Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Make it so. (Feeling that we get dry-slotted here in Central IL while Peoria and NW cash in based on typical low tracks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NW TREND! NW TREND! 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Brian D said: NW TREND! NW TREND! NO. DONT YOU DARE 11 minutes ago, Chambana said: yeah thermals are concerning. Cold rain or a back end paste job is not out of the question here. Yeah it's going to be close call for areas east with warm surge and dry slot screaming north. How north it gets will depend on sfc low position and strength. 7 minutes ago, therock said: Make it so. (Feeling that we get dry-slotted here in Central IL while Peoria and NW cash in based on typical low tracks) I'm not safe here in Peoria either. Euro brought mixing line and dry slot dangerously close. If things hold I'm good, barely, but if it trends anymore nw I may be out of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 FWA 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 NWS blend 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, IWXwx said: FWA Models are starting to get that look to them here, too. I'm far from making a final call, but I'm more than prepared for a front end inch of slop, followed by rain, followed by a couple inches of wind-whipped lake effect/enhancement. Active pattern behind this system, though. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'll probably become more interested come Saturday, but until then it's a bit too early. There are a few players to watch that will factor into the evolution of this one, including what exactly happens with the lead weekend storm system. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 EPS mean is also quite impressive considering the somewhat iffy operational run. How wound up the upper low is when it begins progressing poleward will be key in determining the extent of precip and also the warm nose. I’d keep an eye on any shifts towards a more open wave/less occluded cyclone especially early in the storm’s evolution across the Plains and MS Valley. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: I'll probably become more interested come Saturday, but until then it's a bit too early. There are a few players to watch that will factor into the evolution of this one, including what exactly happens with the lead weekend storm system. I told myself I was going to wait until Friday but I can't stay away. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Models trending this weekend's Northeast snow event a little snowier in the Midwest with the first piece of energy, now showing a small accumulation. Almost looks like the energy is more delayed in handing off to the coastal low. Would think the longer that's delayed the more snow that could be squeezed out in the Midwest? That should have some implications on thermals for the subsequent storm I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: Models trending this weekend's Northeast snow event a little snowier in the Midwest with the first piece of energy, now showing a small accumulation. Almost looks like the energy is more delayed in handing off to the coastal low. Would think the longer that's delayed the more snow that could be squeezed out in the Midwest? That should have some implications on thermals for the subsequent storm I would think. Possibly, but I've learned over the years to not put too much stock in that having much of an impact.. Waa always seems to win in the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 GFS tossing more drool worthy stuff for IL. I would love to get this one, like the old times, where the NAM is throwing us just stupid clown maps within 24 hours. But again, we’ve seen this game before. If we follow the multi-season trend, we have about 48 more hours of model enjoyment before every post becomes “south/flatter/weaker”. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This weekend's Nor'easter did trend weaker and SE. Seems to be following last year's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 24 minutes ago, Frog Town said: This weekend's Nor'easter did trend weaker and SE. Seems to be following last year's trends. I've seen some interesting theories (climate change induced) on this trend on the NE forums, but it definitely appears to be a trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 35 minutes ago, Frog Town said: This weekend's Nor'easter did trend weaker and SE. Seems to be following last year's trends. Just waiting for this storm to do the same. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Not a pro, by any stretch. But I think comparing this year to any of the last few would be flawed thinking in the simplest of ways. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 16 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Just waiting for this storm to do the same. Lol Just an FYI the NE storm has not trended SE and weaker. I have over 60 sites in Jersey to manage this year for snow removal service and am following that area as much as my own backyard. If anything, it has trended NW in the past 24 hours particularly the 12Z euro run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, Baum said: Just an FYI the NE storm has not trended SE and weaker. I have over 60 sites in Jersey to manage this year for snow removal service and am following that area as much as my own backyard. If anything, it has trended NW in the past 24 hours particularly the 12Z euro run. I haven't looked at anything for the weekend storm so I took the word verbatim. Should know better. Ha. But that also doesn't make me feel easy because I'm afraid of a last second nw trend with this one which will put me in mixing, rain, or dry slot. But like Chicago Storm said, still a lot of moving pieces to come together to see where this will track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We are still SO far out - no one should have any expectations yet. It is nice to finally have something to watch though, and to have weenie maps is pure lust. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Harry Perry said: We are still SO far out - no one should have any expectations yet. It is nice to finally have something to watch though, and to have weenie maps is pure lust. That's just it, most here should have correct expectations, and due to the season so far the chance for something to track and discuss is what people here want. Many of the NWS offices have already mentioned it in AFDs and created graphics and posted on social media about the potential. The WPC has regular graphics that go out far enough for the potential. Social media has discussion by pro mets all over the place about the potential. But here we have gatekeeping forum theatrics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 00z GFS manages to hammer St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Toronto, and Montreal. True share the wealth track. That is just an incredibly impressive upper low for that far south. Sure, it could use more cold air, but dynamic cooling will no doubt come into play with such a potent setup aloft. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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