Thundersnow12 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gotta jinx a rainer somehow. Have at it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Everyone low key waiting for that juiced NAM run. Y’all can’t deny it. Honestly, just glad we are transitioning to a more active pattern. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Like I said in the other thread, idc about getting missed just don't let something crucial break down four days out and the whole storm vanishes overnight again or some shit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 As always we gotta let that first system roll through before we can even get excited about this one. First wave is trending drier and weaker which might allow for of a nw track with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, Malacka11 said: Like I said in the other thread, idc about getting missed just don't let something crucial break down four days out and the whole storm vanishes overnight again or some shit. I'm sick and F****n tired of getting missed. There I said it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, Baum said: I'm sick and F****n tired of getting missed. There I said it. Oh I feel you for sure. I'm just saying that out of the two sad endings, I'd much rather take the one that at least keeps a bit of hope alive you know? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Starting a thread a week out. That's a bold move Cotton let's see if it pays off. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, IMADreamer said: Starting a thread a week out. That's a bold move Cotton let's see if it pays off. Me in a week when I hear sleet pinging off the windows... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gotta admit that Alaskan satellite shot looks glamorous. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, IMADreamer said: Starting a thread a week out. That's a bold move Cotton let's see if it pays off. Saw that and immediately thought 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 20 minutes ago, IMADreamer said: Starting a thread a week out. That's a bold move Cotton let's see if it pays off. Sun shines on a dogs ass once in awhile so we shall see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Another weenie dog GFS run reeled in 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The trends on the Northeast storm have me on edge wrt this storm, but both of the "storms" can't go poof like old times can they... I guess we'll see if past winter trends continue. Nice to see the CMC join the GFS on approximate track. Probably shouldn't pay close attention until a few days from now anyways. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: The trends on the Northeast storm have me on edge wrt this storm, but both of the "storms" can't go poof like old times can they... I guess we'll see if past winter trends continue. Nice to see the CMC join the GFS on approximate track. Probably shouldn't pay close attention until a few days from now anyways. Literally my exact thoughts. Though that initially wasn't looking potent then trended that way and now has trended down. This storm has consistently looked like a big dog in long range and now medium range. But not going to lie, definitely nervous on a downward trend as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If you treat the operational runs as essentially ensemble members in their own right, especially at this range of the forecast, it makes sense to see blips like the 12z Euro operational, since there had already been ensemble solutions similar to that. A wide range of outcomes remain on the table while the big picture idea of a strong/deepening SLP tracking over the region still holds. Assuming the Pacific recon flights are happening, that may help narrow the goalposts some by later in the work week. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If you all thought the GFS was a weenie run... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro would have alek posting the eurythmics while SE Iowa to NW IL get smoked. Most of LOT would do solid. Models have been rug pulling for so long that it’s tough to buy in at this range, agreement or not. edit- forgot the image 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 180HR weenie winners from north to south.... Euro - Kansas City to Milwaukee via Quad Cities. GFS - Columbia, Mo to Gary via Bloomington, IL CMC - St. Louis to Detroit via Fort Wayne 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If there's a rug pull in a couple of days, it really will be hard to live down. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Euro would have alek posting the eurythmics while SE Iowa to NW IL get smoked. Most of LOT would do solid. Models have been rug pulling for so long that it’s tough to buy in at this range, agreement or not. edit- forgot the image Memories of 07-08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Sir, pornography is not allowed on this website. Especially money shots. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I'm fine with this thread though I would have waited a couple more days. That being said there will be a storm for the region in the period, the devil is in the details and will be for a while as we still have the storm to go south of most of us this weekend. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Sciascia said: Pretty good representation of all the OP run solutions we have seen over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Another promising GFS run on the 12Z, slight bump north, wetter, bit of a stronger low. A bit far out still but nice to see favorable UVV's increase from previous runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Definitely afraid of a nw trend on this one with how strong the low is. I don't have a lot of wiggle room. Lol. Going to be a nail biter for sure. Key will be how quick trough goes neg tilt and how fast that low takes off because that's when it will start taking a more ne turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Definitely afraid of a nw trend on this one with how strong the low is. I don't have a lot of wiggle room. Lol. Going to be a nail biter for sure. Key will be how quick trough goes neg tilt and how fast that low takes off because that's when it will start taking a more ne turn. The main key will be where the high to the east sets up and how strong, and if there is a piece of energy to the north that could help swing the low north and put in some lead edge WAA that could present boundary layer issues. If there isn't a piece of energy to the north and you end up with more of a banana low this could lift northeast and then slide east from there. A lot of moving pieces still. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, Stebo said: The main key will be where the high to the east sets up and how strong, and if there is a piece of energy to the north that could help swing the low north and put in some lead edge WAA that could present boundary layer issues. If there isn't a piece of energy to the north and you end up with more of a banana low this could lift northeast and then slide east from there. A lot of moving pieces still. Explains the model chaos right now. I think noaa is sending out plans to get data at some point this week. Definitely need some sampling of our system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Heck of a system on there, not often you see sub 980 mb rolling thru the GL. Concerned about the severe side of things robbing this one of moisture on the backside, with the 540 line digging all the way to the GOM and FL I'd expect some serious convection on the southern end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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