UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I do not care how many degrees you may have or how long you have studied the weather. If the Pacific doesn't agree, I'm not buying into it ever again lol. (shoutout to Brad P for being right lol) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Today is absolutely glorious. Let’s just move to this through May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Today is absolutely glorious. Let’s just move to this through May. You know as well as I do that winter always arrives in April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I will start handing out grades based on how well each dive is. Any other volunteers to be judges? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I said I would give it 3 weeks but its over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Pacific sucks and is getting worse, and the Atlantic was never good but it's heading into suckage as well, time for a hot and dry summer, think you can count on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I said I would give it 3 weeks but its over. You have completed the 5 stages of winter grief over the last 24 hours. Congrats! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Saying the climate hasn't changed is like saying living near Chernobyl doesn't increase the odds of cancer. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Whenever it does snow here again, and it will, it shall be glorious. I'm kind of a 'glass half-full' guy. In almost 70 years worth of winters in central/eastern NC been lucky enough to see two massive snows(Mar. '80, Jan. '00), so guessing my ticket's punched. Only reason I'm posting here in the Sanitarium is b/c I'm a little crazy ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Gotta talk here more since the only damn comments in the main thread that are allowed are ones where we ignorantly wish cast a snowy winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, BooneWX said: Gotta talk here more since the only damn comments in the main thread that are allowed are ones where we ignorantly wish cast a snowy winter. For bashing of this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: For bashing of this winter Yea I’m not even trying to bash the winter. I’m just sick of not being allowed to talk about the weather in the mid range thread if it doesn’t fit the cold/snowy narrative folks want. Weather is weather and I love it year around. People who don’t want anything other than pro-snow comments being made can touch grass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Yea I’m not even trying to bash the winter. I’m just sick of not being allowed to talk about the weather in the mid range thread if it doesn’t fit the cold/snowy narrative folks want. Weather is weather and I love it year around. People who don’t want anything other than pro-snow comments being made can touch grass. Agreed. I pointed holes in this pattern as soon as it reached ensemble range and nothing was showing. It was the PUSU phase. I was told it was too volatile for models or too much energy was flying around to have any clue what was going to happen. Weeklies are THE WORST forecast tool we have yet some kept pointing to them over ensembles 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Ready for that one person to say they'll take the Euro over all other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Agreed. I pointed holes in this pattern as soon as it reached ensemble range and nothing was showing. It was the PUSU phase. I was told it was too volatile for models or too much energy was flying around to have any clue what was going to happen. Weeklies are THE WORST forecast tool we have yet some kept pointing to them over ensembles Is there a verification score for things such as ensembles and weeklies like the OP model runs have? Obviously there would have to be margin of error factored in considering the timeframe from hour 0, but I think it's been (3?) times this winter everyone was talking about the weeklies constantly getting colder three weeks out just for it to disappear right when op runs were starting to get within that timeframe (I've spent less time on ensembles this winter compared to normal, so not really sure how they've overall panned out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: Is there a verification score for things such as ensembles and weeklies like the OP model runs have? Obviously there would have to be margin of error factored in considering the timeframe from hour 0, but I think it's been (3?) times this winter everyone was talking about the weeklies constantly getting colder three weeks out just for it to disappear right when op runs were starting to get within that timeframe (I've spent less time on ensembles this winter compared to normal, so not really sure how they've overall panned out) Great question, I don’t know. Ensembles as you know are variable as always and you clearly have model tendencies but they’ve been pretty consistent in showing limited winter wx opportunities throughout the winter. I’d actually say ops this season have been more excited for some fantasy storms than you’d expect looking at their ensemble charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Agreed. I pointed holes in this pattern as soon as it reached ensemble range and nothing was showing. It was the PUSU phase. I was told it was too volatile for models or too much energy was flying around to have any clue what was going to happen. Weeklies are THE WORST forecast tool we have yet some kept pointing to them over ensembles This assessment (bolded) isn’t accurate imo because many GEFS runs (and GEPS for that matter) had until recently been showing a large % of members with wintry precip over the non-mountain SE as I had posted about. There were quite a few GEFS with 2/3-3/4 of members doing so and with ~30-50% even down in GA/SC/FL due to numerous having suppressed southern sliders. I was even counting the # with wintry in N FL with many runs having 3-5 members and 1 having an amazing 10 (33%) with wintry, unheard of that far out. Also, for a number of days, more than 50% of GFS runs had significant wintry somewhere in the non-mountain SE. My posts are all there for the record if anyone doesn’t recall these %s. That’s one of the reasons I post details about model/ens runs. I’m thinking ahead to if/when folks want to look back. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 10 minutes ago, GaWx said: This assessment (bolded) isn’t accurate imo because many GEFS runs (and GEPS for that matter) had until recently been showing a large % of members with wintry precip over the non-mountain SE as I had posted about. There were quite a few GEFS with 2/3-3/4 of members doing so and with ~30-50% even down in GA/SC/FL due to numerous having suppressed southern sliders. I was even counting the # with wintry in N FL with many runs having 3-5 members and 1 having an amazing 10 (33%) with wintry, unheard of that far out. Also, for a number of days, more than 50% of GFS runs had significant wintry somewhere in the non-mountain SE. My posts are all there for the record if anyone doesn’t recall these %s. That’s one of the reasons I post details about model/end runs. I’m thinking ahead to if/when folks want to look back. That was a more of IMBY comment. I seriously discredited the Florida solutions and never once thought that was realistic. For NC, it was paltry. If we’re talking about the region as a whole, yes you could find a solid number showing wintry precipitation somewhere but it seemed either to be overly suppressed or too warm with little in between solutions which is why I favored the latter. There didn’t seem to be a path to victory HERE that was well advertised by a large % of ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That was a more of IMBY comment. I seriously discredited the Florida solutions and never once thought that was realistic. For NC, it was paltry. If we’re talking about the region as a whole, yes you could find a solid number showing wintry precipitation somewhere but it seemed either to be overly suppressed or too warm with little in between solutions which is why I favored the latter. There didn’t seem to be a path to victory HERE that was well advertised by a large % of ensemble members You saying “nothing was showing” on the ensembles was what I was responding about, which is so far from reality. And that includes non-mtn NC, for which many GEFS had 50-75% of members with wintry. NC had more action than any other state, which is normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Amazing how a perfect pattern progged by ensembles and Weeklies can come completely undone in a few days. We are now looking at a warm last week of February due to no -NAO and the PNA is about to flip to- while the MJO is not wanting to leave phase 7. It's about time to cue up the we need a March 93 miracle posts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 it’s crazy to think that if we don’t get snow before Jan 22 of next year, most on this board will have gone a full 3 years without measurable snow. With our last pre-Jan snow being 2018, odds are highly suggestive that will be tested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 hours ago, wncsnow said: Amazing how a perfect pattern progged by ensembles and Weeklies can come completely undone in a few days. We are now looking at a warm last week of February due to no -NAO and the PNA is about to flip to- while the MJO is not wanting to leave phase 7. It's about time to cue up the we need a March 93 miracle posts.. We need a volcano or maybe even an asteroid strike to break this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: We need a volcano or maybe even an asteroid strike to break this pattern I don't think we'd even score in a nuclear winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 47 minutes ago, JoshM said: I don't think we'd even score in a nuclear winter. Our winter now runs Dec-Jan. February is spring. More 60’s and 70’s than days in the 50’s. I bet we end up with more frosts from November than we do this entire month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: it’s crazy to think that if we don’t get snow before Jan 22 of next year, most on this board will have gone a full 3 years without measurable snow. With our last pre-Jan snow being 2018, odds are highly suggestive that will be tested Yep we could cross that 1000 day mark for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Our winter now runs Dec-Jan. February is spring. More 60’s and 70’s than days in the 50’s. I bet we end up with more frosts from November than we do this entire month Let’s just hope we don’t continue the trend of getting our dream blocking set up on March 25 as has been the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Let’s just hope we don’t continue the trend of getting our dream blocking set up on March 25 as has been the pattern. Count on it! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 All I can say is I am glad I took that trip to the mountains a few weeks ago when they had back to back snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 36 minutes ago, eyewall said: All I can say is I am glad I took that trip to the mountains a few weeks ago when they had back to back snowfalls. I was supposed to be at Beech the weekend of the 16 incher, but called into work 48 hours before i was supposed to leave. It stings now more than ever that I missed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If anyone’s in need for some entertainment today, head to the New England forum. They have had warnings posted for up to 12-18” since yesterday and the latest EURO completely blanks a lot of those areas. Total meltdown mode up there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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