Southeast Sanitarium - Winter 23/24 Edition

[KChuck]

1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

Genuinely jealous of people who didn't fall into the trap of this hobby. Weather models are basically crack from what I can tell. Everytime I try to tell myself to just stop looking, I find myself waking up at 2am just to sneak a peak at the Euro lol

Ditto on checking the weather sites. Worse for me. I lived outside of Buffalo near the present stadium in years 1963-1969. There were times the only way that we could get out of the house to shovel ourselves out was to open the garage door straight up! I think that I'm starting to have major spells of delirium believing the forecasts! 

[CaryWx]

2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Genuinely jealous of people who didn't fall into the trap of this hobby. Weather models are basically crack from what I can tell. Everytime I try to tell myself to just stop looking, I find myself waking up at 2am just to sneak a peak at the Euro lol

While I'm in the camp of solidly waiting a couple of weeks before looking at this winter (from a pattern whole) more critically I suggest holding off on the 2am looks until we are actually tracking a storm. 

[SnowDawg]

Just now, Chuck said:

It's not the long range that we are having trouble with. Those have produced, what, three feet of snow for us already. It's the short range and now casts that are disturbing! 

I mean sure I guess, but we have barely even had a long range genuinely favorable look for winter storms this winter. This brief early January window was the first period that looked promising at a distance, and arguably we got two near misses out of it. One sheared and suppressed to the south a couple days ago and one CAD setup without enough antecedent cold air or strong enough high.

[KChuck]

35 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Sorry but, throwing in the towel first week of January during an El Niño is crazy. 80% of NC winter storms in Niño years happen after Jan 8th. 50% still after Feb 5th. We are just now beginning to move into a period where our most favorable climo can be seen on long range modeling, and while everything is not perfect there's more going for us than agaisnt us. You may well end up right, but this is the south no snow is always the best bet.

[BooneWX]

As hard as it’s going to be, there’s zero point in looking at ensembles, operationals or anything of the such past 5 days. This whole week has been an absolute windshield wiper effect. We’ve bounced between extreme cold, seasonal cold and slightly above average every single day this week. I’m not sure why the models continue to be this unreliable and crappy but I truly think none of them have any sort of inkling of a clue as to what will happen beyond day 5. 
 

im as depressed as anyone about the outlook but let’s be honest: this Saturday wasn’t too far from being a biggie. If that high would have anchored, we’d be looking at a major winter storm from e tn, through the upstate, western nc, Virginia and NC piedmont. 

[strongwxnc]

1.03” of rain in January will always piss me off. lol
Even though this was going to be a non event, come one.
Wasted potential


.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

I think that if Carolina can beat Tampa Bay tomorrow, we go ahead and start the storm thread. 

[snowmaker13]

We would be cashing in on all these storms if not for this. Demoralizing winter. 

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

2020s are the new 90s

 

https://www.webberweather.com/1990s-winter-storms-nc.html

 

[mclean02]

What the heck happened here haha ??

[ObiWanKarlNobi]

They need a map for the sleet/snow/ice event in January 1999.  I got an additional week of Christmas Break from that storm.

[Tacoma]

You know this gets old with every storm we have is a cutter and last week we finally got a good track and it was to warm or the warm nose ruined that storm as well,  could we finally get a storm just to our south with the cold air in place, I've been holding off on saying anything but this is getting old.  Each time there is a storm it's a cutter.  I thought the El Nino meant we would get more storms from the southwest moving just to our south that would give a good winter storm.  

[GaWx]

47 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

You know this gets old with every storm we have is a cutter and last week we finally got a good track and it was to warm or the warm nose ruined that storm as well,  could we finally get a storm just to our south with the cold air in place, I've been holding off on saying anything but this is getting old.  Each time there is a storm it's a cutter.  I thought the El Nino meant we would get more storms from the southwest moving just to our south that would give a good winter storm.  

 It is still very early. A significant majority of major SE El Niño snowstorms have occurred after mid January. Even in a snowy El Niño winter, often there’s only one widespread major storm in the SE. So, we have plenty of time for that storm to happen.

[Amos83]

Iredell Co schools are closing for tomorrow’s rain/wind storm.


.

[calculus1]

As are Catawba, Burke, and Alexander counties.

I just don't understand these closings for rain storms, but maybe it's the right call. Back in my day,...

I can't wait to tell my kids about all the rain angels we can make in the yard tomorrow...

[UnionCountyNCWX]

2 hours ago, Tacoma said:

You know this gets old with every storm we have is a cutter and last week we finally got a good track and it was to warm or the warm nose ruined that storm as well,  could we finally get a storm just to our south with the cold air in place, I've been holding off on saying anything but this is getting old.  Each time there is a storm it's a cutter.  I thought the El Nino meant we would get more storms from the southwest moving just to our south that would give a good winter storm.  

I honestly don't believe it's possible this year. I was all in on this past weekends storm, as it was the only time all the players were on the table at roughly the right positions, but of course nothing went right and we heated for some nice cold rain. There's nothing about this pattern coming up that right now says we should be excited minus maybe getting few days below normal temps.. And by the time we get the "relaxation" for something that lasted a couple of days, we're gonna be in mid February.

It is nice to see the rain though, we all needed it. But tomorrows storm is probably gonna be the most "exciting" thing this winter.

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER88]

Swing and a miss. Swing and a miss. Swing and a STRIKEOUT! Will we ever see another big snowstorm in the south again? Dealing with severe weather in the Carolinas in January haha. 

[CentralNC]

22 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

I honestly don't believe it's possible this year. I was all in on this past weekends storm, as it was the only time all the players were on the table at roughly the right positions, but of course nothing went right and we heated for some nice cold rain. There's nothing about this pattern coming up that right now says we should be excited minus maybe getting few days below normal temps.. And by the time we get the "relaxation" for something that lasted a couple of days, we're gonna be in mid February.

It is nice to see the rain though, we all needed it. But tomorrows storm is probably gonna be the most "exciting" thing this winter.

At least it's something to watch.  Last year there was hardly any storms to keep track of anywhere east of the rockies.

[UnionCountyNCWX]

1 hour ago, CentralNC said:

At least it's something to watch.  Last year there was hardly any storms to keep track of anywhere east of the rockies.

For your area, sure.

[SuperNET1]

Have not posted here in a while - looks like the same complaining of no snow and cold for the Southeast. We just had an impressive rain event today - take stock in the fact that its not sunny and nice (everyday) .... 

 

[SuperNET1]

I see another poster from Monroe too - that's interesting. 

[NCsandhills]

Great, more severe wx chances on Friday evening...I have a flight from RDU to Paris that if I miss due to severe storm cancelations, in January, I am going to personally destroy the world. 

[lilj4425]

This forum is dead.  

[CaryWx]

[Coach McGuirk]

I can not predict the future but this looks like an I-95 Snow Storm.

 

 

 

 

 

[wncsnow]

I expect this place to be full in the coming weeks

[NorthHillsWx]

22 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I expect this place to be full in the coming weeks

It’s hard to need a sanitarium when everyone simply gave up a month ago 

[Tullioz]

I'm not sure what all of the negativity is about, especially since it's only January 11th. As of now, things are going pretty much as expected for an El Nino winter, with most being back-loaded when it comes to cold and snow.

Two of the biggest winters for snow in my part of NC, 1965–66 and 1986–87 (both El Nino winters), each had snowless Decembers, and the first snows in those winters didn't occur until the middle of January. Despite having no snow until mid-January, the winter of 1965–66 had 37.4" for the season, and 1986–87 ended up with 33.5". Both of those winters also had at least one 12-inch snowstorm.

On January 25–27, 1966, 13" of snow fell, and again, a couple of days later, another 10" fell on the 29th and 30th.

In 1987, 14" fell on January 22nd and 23rd, and again a couple of days later, on January 25th and 26th, another 6" fell.

While I'm not expecting a repeat of either of those winters, they, along with other El Nino winters of the past, make me very optimistic that this winter will end up being a decent one once all is said and done.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Tullioz said:

I'm not sure what all of the negativity is about, especially since it's only January 11th. As of now, things are going pretty much as expected for an El Nino winter, with most being back-loaded when it comes to cold and snow.

Two of the biggest winters for snow in my part of NC, 1965–66 and 1986–87 (both El Nino winters), each had snowless Decembers, and the first snows in those winters didn't occur until the middle of January. Despite having no snow until mid-January, the winter of 1965–66 had 37.4" for the season, and 1986–87 ended up with 33.5". Both of those winters also had at least one 12-inch snowstorm.

On January 25–27, 1966, 13" of snow fell, and again, a couple of days later, another 10" fell on the 29th and 30th.

In 1987, 14" fell on January 22nd and 23rd, and again a couple of days later, on January 25th and 26th, another 6" fell.

While I'm not expecting a repeat of either of those winters, they, along with other El Nino winters of the past, make me very optimistic that this winter will end up being a decent one once all is said and done.

We have long range models now and have learned through pain and disappointment that in the south, if it’s showing rain at 384, it gonna rain. If there’s no snowstorm, dont expect a surprise. Models say punt till February so maybe February will save us 

[Tullioz]

17 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We have long range models now and have learned through pain and disappointment that in the south, if it’s showing rain at 384, it gonna rain. If there’s no snowstorm, dont expect a surprise. Models say punt till February so maybe February will save us 

The models are showing a more favorable pattern beginning next week and continuing into February, so things seem to be on track for now. If nothing materializes by the end of this month, only then will I start to consider that this winter may be in trouble.