Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 A couple 6z runs (GFS & NAM 12k). Coast-scrapers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Interesting that the NAM is drier than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Not that anyone in here is really in it anymore, but 6z euro better for N&W . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Not that anyone in here is really in it anymore, but 6z euro better for N&W . Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 22 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: Next Next one is 99.8% rain. 3 flakes at the start. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Next one is 99.8% rain. 3 flakes at the start. I saw this video this morning on a news site and thought of this group! This is where the snow went (on the other side of the planet). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I see so many people canceling this storm for the Philly burbs even into the Lehigh Valley, presumably because of that one warm Euro run last night. The Euro got colder at 6z and the only other model torching is the GFS, which is absolutely terrible at handling thermals. I’m still seeing a pretty snowy event even down to northern Bucks and Montgomery counties. The front end thump in these events often overperforms and dynamic cooling keeps things cooler. Will N&W areas mix? Maybe, but it probably won’t happen until the bulk of the precip exits. if you’re in or near Philly, then yes, there’s reason to be pessimistic. But I’m just not feeling like that for more northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 39 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I see so many people canceling this storm for the Philly burbs even into the Lehigh Valley, presumably because of that one warm Euro run last night. The Euro got colder at 6z and the only other model torching is the GFS, which is absolutely terrible at handling thermals. I’m still seeing a pretty snowy event even down to northern Bucks and Montgomery counties. The front end thump in these events often overperforms and dynamic cooling keeps things cooler. Will N&W areas mix? Maybe, but it probably won’t happen until the bulk of the precip exits. if you’re in or near Philly, then yes, there’s reason to be pessimistic. But I’m just not feeling like that for more northern areas. 12z NAM is running right now (and we are coming into its range). Will have to see how it depicts any dynamics (since it is a convective model). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I see so many people canceling this storm for the Philly burbs even into the Lehigh Valley, presumably because of that one warm Euro run last night. The Euro got colder at 6z and the only other model torching is the GFS, which is absolutely terrible at handling thermals. I’m still seeing a pretty snowy event even down to northern Bucks and Montgomery counties. The front end thump in these events often overperforms and dynamic cooling keeps things cooler. Will N&W areas mix? Maybe, but it probably won’t happen until the bulk of the precip exits. if you’re in or near Philly, then yes, there’s reason to be pessimistic. But I’m just not feeling like that for more northern areas.NAM a nice thump in LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z NAM is a touch warmer unfortunately compared to 6z. Still a nice 6 hour thump for the LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 ^That time for the gif I posted, yes you could argue it's already after the initial thump which it is. But we have that 2nd vort swinging through now on guidance and it would sure be nice for the mid-levels to still be cold enough when that happens to snow an additional inch or two on that passage. That second vort attempts to wrap up and bring in some cold air on the backside, but there's so much energy crashing into the west coast reducing any chance for amplification. It's a New England special, and an interior one at that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 These are the systems in Januarys past with a track like that it would be just cold enough to give us our 3-5", 4-6" inchers. Now they're just warm enough to give us a front end thump (IF the "colder" solutions verify). Just hoping to cover the grass before any changeover. Is that asking too much in early Jan?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Hi-res NAM (last) hour 60 frame (coast scraping). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 19 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Hi-res NAM (last) hour 60 frame (coast scraping). Interesting frame with snow over the city and rain to the NW, suggesting if rates are heavy enough it can still be just cold enough. (Of course, it could just be one of those NAM things.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 at this point i'd like to keep the streak alive down here in kamuland...1.1 inches would just piss me off...think we are safe though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Next one is 99.8% rain. 3 flakes at the start. The warm bodies of water just keep delivering! I am wondering if this pattern though we are in is anything like the winter of 1983??? Warm water bodies damed if you have them damed if you don't! Without the warm water you don't get the necessary gradient for big storms to develop and feed off of to give us the Big Dog! With warmer water and weak storms without proper blocking we are done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 GFS just did exactly what I was talking about with that follow up vort, just a little too far east. The CCB gets cranking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Ya that ccb hits eastern pa pretty good Sunday AM. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We'll see if other models start to move towards this more, but the GFS opens another can of worms with the evolution of this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Latest GFS doubles snowfall from prior run down into Northern Chester County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Meh, I’m calling BS on the GFS. I do think the trailing vort gives us some light snow but I just can’t see a huge deform band forming like that in our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 20 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Meh, I’m calling BS on the GFS. I do think the trailing vort gives us some light snow but I just can’t see a huge deform band forming like that in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Hi-res NAM (last) hour 60 frame (coast scraping). This time of year that should be snow the obvious problems: 1. High up north not cold enough and too weak 2. No blocking 3. Warm ocean 4. Weaker storm less dynamical 5. Too close to the coast 6. Air mass in front polar pacific air and marine air off the Atlantic As you see our problems are many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 59 minutes ago, Newman said: GFS just did exactly what I was talking about with that follow up vort, just a little too far east. The CCB gets cranking This is a result of lack of confluence and blocking up north and our reality. We needed that 984 to be 80 miles or better to the east of Ocean City Maryland. This would have worked but our block / confluence to the north and the high to the north did not allow for development of our low further south and the storm is allowed to just scat out without the cold locking in or reinforcing. This is a progressive look which is what we are stuck in unfortunately. At least our weather will not be boring get ready for roller coaster temps, snow to rain etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 57 minutes ago, Newman said: We'll see if other models start to move towards this more, but the GFS opens another can of worms with the evolution of this storm Yea this is a new development we shall see how real this is but we can score this way too and the snow becomes much more higher ratio too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 hours ago, JTA66 said: These are the systems in Januarys past with a track like that it would be just cold enough to give us our 3-5", 4-6" inchers. Now they're just warm enough to give us a front end thump (IF the "colder" solutions verify). Just hoping to cover the grass before any changeover. Is that asking too much in early Jan?? Think back on that for the first half of January this area struggles this time of the year getting SECS and MECS it takes a very strong arctic high typically and we don't have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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