Mikeymac5306 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Looks like snow showers all day Sunday per GFS. CMC to me looks aggressive with the cold and snow. Also aggressive with the front end snow Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Don’t look now but the Canadian has gotten much colder for Tuesday. Significant event north of I-78.Those types of storms typically do trend colder for our area and we get more frozen and transition to just light rain or drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Having posted a backyard forecast from the old WXSIM module in a while. It now includes the European along with the GFS and NAM. For now it has 4" to 6" - not buying it's temps they have been running too warm lately. Saturday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 39. Wind east-southeast around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. Maximum snow level 300 feet above ground. Saturday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of a mix of snow, sleet, and rain after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 31. Wind east around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro just went way NW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I remember when the ECM made only small adjustments inside five days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, Newman said: Euro just went way NW The trend of storms moving northwest in the days leading up to gameday have been doing this for a couple of years now. Is this trend continuing or is this just the Euro having a hiccup? Time will tell and see what the other guidance shows us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I hate how all over the place this is after the 00z suite last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kickingupastorm Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 When will we learn that a foot snow storm never materializes one week away. Fooled every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z hi-res EC - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Still like that track...really not a huge difference between models....snow maps will keep changing. Thermals yes.....the latest run has about 3" in East Nantmeal and 8" just 19 miles up the road in Reading or an inch less on the K maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I don't think it's that the storm is trending NW so much as the models latching on the the idea a few of us have been expressing -- it hasn't been that cold and there's a relatively warm ocean just off to our east. In this situation, I'd like at see an arctic parked over Quebec with CAA drilling down the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Pick your poison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: . My yard N&W gets a SECS on the clown map of 6" I'm on the edge of the plank with far too much time to go lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 When does DT's first guess come out, next Wednesday? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The kuchi clown map is bad pretends I didn't see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Saw the NAM at far range run ten minutes before the euro and thought that looked like hot garbage hope this isn't that EE rule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 My yard N&W gets a SECS on the clown map of 6" I'm on the edge of the plank with far too much time to go lolEPS with a nice upward tick . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Made my first call on my page…4-8” for the Lehigh Valley. That mix line does concern me a bit but I think we avoid it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 As bad as 12z was EPS still showing I95 has chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: As bad as 12z was EPS still showing I95 has chance I mean, if things adjust about 25 miles se it's game on for everyone. That isn't alot to ask 3 days out. What worries me isn't track as much as the thermals are torching tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 12z Canadian for the heck of it, with the I-95 line... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I mean, if things adjust about 25 miles se it's game on for everyone. That isn't alot to ask 3 days out. What worries me isn't track as much as the thermals are torching tho. Agreed. That's why I told myself not to get too worked up one way or the other much before 12Z tomorrow. Better yet, I'd like to see where we are with the mesos inside 48hrs. Still could be a lost cause south of I-78 but it's only Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If I was making a forecast right now for Chester County I would go 4" to 6" for Western Chesco and 3" to 5" for Eastern locales.....but what do I know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 I feel like models are so all over the place it is hard to get excited for the possibility of X amount generally anywhere. Just saw in the MA Forum the 18z NAM was bone dry again lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 24 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: If I was making a forecast right now for Chester County I would go 4" to 6" for Western Chesco and 3" to 5" for Eastern locales.....but what do I know! Gladly take. Still not enough to warm up the snowblower though. ...then theres the NAM... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, LVblizzard said: Made my first call on my page…4-8” for the Lehigh Valley. That mix line does concern me a bit but I think we avoid it. I made the first call of 6-8" with lollipops yesterday to my friends. Sticking to it until I see the the NAM tomorrow night which could change the amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The long range NAM will either show the most weenie outcome possible or something that’s ridiculously different from all the other models. Never fails. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I made the first call of 6-8" with lollipops yesterday to my friends. Sticking to it until I see the the NAM tomorrow night which could change the amounts I look at the NAM but cannot take it seriously until less than 24 hours before game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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