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January 6-7 Winter Storm


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Having posted a backyard forecast from the old WXSIM module in a while. It now includes the European along with the GFS and NAM.

For now it has 4" to 6" - not buying it's temps they have been running too warm lately.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the
 afternoon. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the
 morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 39. Wind
 east-southeast around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon.
 Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. Maximum snow level
 300 feet above ground.
 
 Saturday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely in
 the evening, then a chance of a mix of snow, sleet, and rain after midnight. Low
 32. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 31. Wind east around 7 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half
 an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches.

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8 minutes ago, Newman said:

Euro just went way NW

The trend of storms moving northwest in the days leading up to gameday have been doing this for a couple of years now.  Is this trend continuing or is this just the Euro having a hiccup?  Time will tell and see what the other guidance shows us.

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I don't think it's that the storm is trending NW so much as the models latching on the the idea a few of us have been expressing -- it hasn't been that cold and there's a relatively warm ocean just off to our east. In this situation, I'd like at see an arctic parked over Quebec with CAA drilling down the coastal plain.

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23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

As bad as 12z was EPS still showing I95 has chance

I mean, if things adjust about 25 miles se it's game on for everyone. That isn't alot to ask 3 days out. What worries me isn't track as much as the thermals are torching tho.

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21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I mean, if things adjust about 25 miles se it's game on for everyone. That isn't alot to ask 3 days out. What worries me isn't track as much as the thermals are torching tho.

Agreed. That's why I told myself not to get too worked up one way or the other much before 12Z tomorrow. Better yet, I'd like to see where we are with the mesos inside 48hrs. Still could be a lost cause south of I-78 but it's only Wednesday.

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24 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

If I was making a forecast right now for Chester County I would go 4" to 6" for Western Chesco and 3" to 5" for Eastern locales.....but what do I know!

Gladly take.  Still not enough to warm up the snowblower though. 

 

...then theres the NAM... LOL 

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2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Made my first call on my page…4-8” for the Lehigh Valley. That mix line does concern me a bit but I think we avoid it.

I made the first call of 6-8" with lollipops yesterday to my friends.  Sticking to it until I see the the NAM tomorrow night which could change the amounts

 

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