January 6-7 Winter Storm

[Mikeymac5306]

Looks like snow showers all day Sunday per GFS. 

CMC to me looks aggressive with the cold and snow.  Also aggressive with the front end snow Tuesday. 

[anthonyweather]

Don’t look now but the Canadian has gotten much colder for Tuesday. Significant event north of I-78.

Those types of storms typically do trend colder for our area and we get more frozen and transition to just light rain or drizzle


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[ChescoWx]

Having posted a backyard forecast from the old WXSIM module in a while. It now includes the European along with the GFS and NAM.

For now it has 4" to 6" - not buying it's temps they have been running too warm lately.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the
 afternoon. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the
 morning, then a mix of snow and rain likely in the afternoon. High 39. Wind
 east-southeast around 3 mph in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon.
 Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 around a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch. Maximum snow level
 300 feet above ground.
 
 Saturday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely in
 the evening, then a chance of a mix of snow, sleet, and rain after midnight. Low
 32. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 31. Wind east around 7 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half
 an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 3 to 5 inches.

[Newman]

Euro just went way NW

[RedSky]

I remember when the ECM made only small adjustments inside five days

[Blue Dream]

Next

[Beagles20]

8 minutes ago, Newman said:

Euro just went way NW

The trend of storms moving northwest in the days leading up to gameday have been doing this for a couple of years now.  Is this trend continuing or is this just the Euro having a hiccup?  Time will tell and see what the other guidance shows us.

[Duca892]

I hate how all over the place this is after the 00z suite last night

[kickingupastorm]

When will we learn that a foot snow storm never materializes one week away. Fooled every time. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z hi-res EC -

 

[anthonyweather]

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[ChescoWx]

Still like that track...really not a huge difference between models....snow maps will keep changing. Thermals yes.....the latest run has about 3" in East Nantmeal and 8" just 19 miles up the road in Reading or an inch less on the K maps.

[JTA66]

I don't think it's that the storm is trending NW so much as the models latching on the the idea a few of us have been expressing -- it hasn't been that cold and there's a relatively warm ocean just off to our east. In this situation, I'd like at see an arctic parked over Quebec with CAA drilling down the coastal plain.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Pick your poison.

 

[RedSky]

8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

.

My yard N&W gets a SECS on the clown map of 6" 

I'm on the edge of the plank with far too much time to go lol

[JTA66]

When does DT's first guess come out, next Wednesday?

[RedSky]

The kuchi clown map is bad pretends I didn't see that

 

[RedSky]

Saw the NAM at far range run ten minutes before the euro and thought that looked like hot garbage hope this isn't that EE rule

[anthonyweather]

My yard N&W gets a SECS on the clown map of 6" 
I'm on the edge of the plank with far too much time to go lol

EPS with a nice upward tick




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[LVblizzard]

Made my first call on my page…4-8” for the Lehigh Valley. That mix line does concern me a bit but I think we avoid it.

[RedSky]

As bad as 12z was EPS still showing I95 has chance

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

As bad as 12z was EPS still showing I95 has chance

I mean, if things adjust about 25 miles se it's game on for everyone. That isn't alot to ask 3 days out. What worries me isn't track as much as the thermals are torching tho.

[Hurricane Agnes]

12z Canadian for the heck of it, with the I-95 line...

[JTA66]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I mean, if things adjust about 25 miles se it's game on for everyone. That isn't alot to ask 3 days out. What worries me isn't track as much as the thermals are torching tho.

Agreed. That's why I told myself not to get too worked up one way or the other much before 12Z tomorrow. Better yet, I'd like to see where we are with the mesos inside 48hrs. Still could be a lost cause south of I-78 but it's only Wednesday.

[ChescoWx]

If I was making a forecast right now for Chester County I would go 4" to 6" for Western Chesco and 3" to 5" for Eastern locales.....but what do I know!

[Duca892]

I feel like models are so all over the place it is hard to get excited for the possibility of X amount generally anywhere. Just saw in the MA Forum the 18z NAM was bone dry again lmfao

 

[Mikeymac5306]

24 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

If I was making a forecast right now for Chester County I would go 4" to 6" for Western Chesco and 3" to 5" for Eastern locales.....but what do I know!

Gladly take.  Still not enough to warm up the snowblower though. 

 

...then theres the NAM... LOL 

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

Made my first call on my page…4-8” for the Lehigh Valley. That mix line does concern me a bit but I think we avoid it.

I made the first call of 6-8" with lollipops yesterday to my friends.  Sticking to it until I see the the NAM tomorrow night which could change the amounts

 

[LVblizzard]

The long range NAM will either show the most weenie outcome possible or something that’s ridiculously different from all the other models. Never fails.

[ChescoWx]

7 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I made the first call of 6-8" with lollipops yesterday to my friends.  Sticking to it until I see the the NAM tomorrow night which could change the amounts

 

I look at the NAM but cannot take it seriously until less than 24 hours before game time