MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC is a mauling for SePA woah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gefs is even further south , weaker and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Very good 0z suite for the entire subforum. Except maybe the Jersey shore. GFS seems lost and even if it verifies it’s still not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Winter storm watches maybe issued by Thursday evening for LV north, especially if the NAM agrees by the 18Z runs on Thursday. Every LR model demonstrates satisfying winter storm warning criteria for the LV the last day or so. Confidence level is somewhat high at above 60% too. Looks promising but I will still rely on the NAM runs on Thursday night to agree with the Euro runs on Friday morning for a WS warning to be issued by Friday 18Z runs. Accumulations look to be 8+ inches on the clown maps but meeting at least 6 in on the total positive snow map is somewhat satisfying in these LR models. I will go with the latter until the NAM shows its cards. The NAM/HRRR is basically the River card in this poker game involving a winter storm event to be issued for the LV. Once that card is turned over, we will all know where we stand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 ECM completes the good runs at 0z with 6-10" I95 N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, RedSky said: ECM completes the good runs at 0z with 6-10" I95 N&W Yep. How the hell can you stay up for model runs at 1:30am but when the actual event is occurring at 1:30am you're counting sheep...lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Euro is weenie paradise for the I-78 corridor! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Yep. How the hell can you stay up for model runs at 1:30am but when the actual event is occurring at 1:30am you're counting sheep...lol. ?? Sunrise snow I have a problem with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Admittedly I was getting nervous yesterday for LV with trends north, but what a great model suite. Looks like we are getting closer to our first winter storm in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6z GFS still has a 2-low solution but the 1st low goes shuttling off OTS far south and the other eventually emerges near the Chesapeake Bay. Looks to have a back end thump as it pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Choice of maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Still has nothing-burger written all over it for 95 areas imo. 10-15 miles N and W of should get a decent 3-6”. I’ll be surprised if we see an inch here though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: When was the last WSW for Northern Chesco, 2016? No....I think we had 3 of them back in 2021 with our last trio of significant snow events: Jan 30-Feb 2 (17.0") Feb 7 (8.8") Feb 19 (7.5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: No....I think we had 3 of them back in 2021 with our last trio of significant snow events: Jan 30-Feb 2 (17.0") Feb 7 (8.8") Feb 19 (7.5") I remember Feb 7th and Feb 19th but not Jan 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 29 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: I remember Feb 7th and Feb 19th but not Jan 30. Below is a link for a recap and snow reports - some huge amounts in there from that event. https://www.weather.gov/phi/EventReview20210201 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Maybe mid month for the I-95 folk? . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6z EPS - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7z NBM snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Latest NBM continues trend of reducing model snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 From JB for those that know who he is "I said I like 3-6 for the city cause the fight is in the I-95 corridor. I think that goes all the way down to DC. 20 miles northwest its snow and 6-12. the US 6 cities from Hartford to PVD and up to BOS I think are all snow. The best lollypop over 12 or more is Garrett County Poconos and Catskills. (duh) and a host of places in southern New England since the second max coming in while the easterly flow is going likely means after heavy snow shuts off, it continues to snow" Stunned to see JB going for so much snow (not) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Marginal airmass and 47 degree ocean temps. I'll be happy with 2-3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 The entire evolution of this storm has obviously changed since just a few days ago, everyone can see that. It'll be a quick thump of snow for 6-8 hours probably Saturday night. I think that bodes for max amounts around 6-8", unless we see a change as we get closer. Still sticking with my first call that the lollipop max is northern Berks up through the Poconos for our CWA. Not a trivial forecast, climo basically 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 6 minutes ago, Newman said: The entire evolution of this storm has obviously changed since just a few days ago, everyone can see that. It'll be a quick thump of snow for 6-8 hours probably Saturday night. I think that bodes for max amounts around 6-8", unless we see a change as we get closer. Still sticking with my first call that the lollipop max is northern Berks up through the Poconos for our CWA. Not a trivial forecast, climo basically Frontogenisis generally works out better for us than the slow bomber anyways... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If you've been doing this long enough, you know the Canadian always always always has an overamped bias and puts down more QPF than feasible (in most cases). The 12z CMC is a shallacking for those NW of 95, but the 12+ totals seem suspect. The storm is literally in and out in 10-12 hours. Yes, I've seen quick moving thump and dump storms consistently average 1 inch hour rates for the duration of the storm. Can't remember which events, but I've seen it during my times in PA. If the Canadian were to come to fruition, I'd imagine there would be some 10" lollis NW of 95. But this isn't a slow moving transfer storm. Again, if you're NW of 95 I'd be expecting a solid accumulating wet snowfall. Those furthest NW and into central PA will have the jack 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Newman said: If you've been doing this long enough, you know the Canadian always always always has an overamped bias and puts down more QPF than feasible (in most cases). The 12z CMC is a shallacking for those NW of 95, but the 12+ totals seem suspect. The storm is literally in and out in 10-12 hours. Yes, I've seen quick moving thump and dump storms consistently average 1 inch hour rates for the duration of the storm. Can't remember which events, but I've seen it during my times in PA. If the Canadian were to come to fruition, I'd imagine there would be some 10" lollis NW of 95. But this isn't a slow moving transfer storm. Again, if you're NW of 95 I'd be expecting a solid accumulating wet snowfall. Those furthest NW and into central PA will have the jack Love your professional thoughts! Thanks!! I suspect elevation will help out as it always does in these more marginal temp events. Thanks again and smooth travels to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Over the years living in PA, I slowly became a HECS chaser to be honest, especially after Jan 2016 and Jan/Feb 2021. Storms like the one coming up wouldn't typically excite me. But it's been a long time coming and my pops loves snow and wants this one badly. I'm excited for y'all, I'm flying back literally Saturday morning so I'll be missing it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: That output looks reasonable, with perhaps a quicker drop off at the fall line especially due to ocean temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Don’t look now but the Canadian has gotten much colder for Tuesday. Significant event north of I-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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