Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 With it hugging like that and no sign of a PV ooze for antecedent cold air, I can't see how any of these verify. I know that strong systems can self-cool and generate cold air but it seems like it would do that further north near NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: With it hugging like that and no sign of a PV ooze for antecedent cold air, I can't see how any of these verify. I know that strong systems can self-cool and generate cold air but it seems like it would do that further north near NE. Elevation FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: Elevation FTW Even then, it would be that wet heavy stuff. But I guess beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 19 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: IMO, 1.36475% this happens. 18z is always a glimpse of hope/makes weenies happy, click their heels only to get shot down by the 0z later tonight. Early Prediction: Philly: 1-2", maybe 3", Local Burbs 3-5" or so, Far N/W 6+". Marginal temps and the ocean is a boiling pot. Hope I'm wrong and things roll in our favor but these things rarely work out but I'll take 3-4" w/winds... 37F 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Even then, it would be that wet heavy stuff. But I guess beggars can't be choosers. So true! Tomorrow we set the record snow futility streak in Chester County with our 662nd consecutive day without recording 1" of snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: IMO, 1.36475% this happens. 18z is always a glimpse of hope/makes weenies happy, click their heels only to get shot down by the 0z later tonight. Early Prediction: Philly: 1-2", maybe 3", Local Burbs 3-5" or so, Far N/W 6+". Marginal temps and the ocean is a boiling pot. Hope I'm wrong and things roll in our favor but these things rarely work out but I'll take 3-4" w/winds... 37F I think that is honestly a solid forecast from this vantage point!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 hours ago, RedSky said: Just think you got cold rain followed up by a big mild rain to stoke the daffodils Yea, sorry the daffodils are already up along with my crocuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 56 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 18z GFS ditches all-inland Miller-B type thing and coast hugs (edit - still wants a low to do a jump though). What the hell is going on here these runs are getting laughable. The low is jumping all over the place. I have ever seen this before which low is the real storm??? It is clear to me at 18z the models are having significant issues dealing with the northern and southern streams here and whether to phase or not to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: What the hell is going on here these runs are getting laughable. The low is jumping all over the place. I have ever seen this before which low is the real storm??? It is clear to me at 18z the models are having significant issues dealing with the northern and southern streams here and whether to phase or not to phase. The models need data from when a PAC system finally comes ashore into California - I think expected within the next 12 hours or so (based on the HPC surface forecast). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillyPete Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 36 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: IMO, 1.36475% this happens. 18z is always a glimpse of hope/makes weenies happy, click their heels only to get shot down by the 0z later tonight. Early Prediction: Philly: 1-2", maybe 3", Local Burbs 3-5" or so, Far N/W 6+". Marginal temps and the ocean is a boiling pot. Hope I'm wrong and things roll in our favor but these things rarely work out but I'll take 3-4" w/winds... 37F Yeah, I think that's pretty much what I would expect at this point. Been novice tracking for almost 20 years now and historically that's how it pans out. Never underestimate the WAA for SEPA. That being said, after last year I would take the crappy 3" of weekend wet snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, phillyPete said: Yeah, I think that's pretty much what I would expect at this point. Been novice tracking for almost 20 years now and historically that's how it pans out. Never underestimate the WAA for SEPA. We have this ocean temps issue going on too. Zoom in - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Yea, sorry the daffodils are already up along with my crocuses. Yeah I know but it will stoke them to get big and strong 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 40 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The models need data from when a PAC system finally comes ashore into California - I think expected within the next 12 hours or so (based on the HPC surface forecast). Yes, I do remember this point! I should have known back where models have storm lose it then bring it back 3-4 days prior typical scene. The swings are just so wild. I will say this if the models come back around again to 10-15" they will lock in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 38 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: We have this ocean temps issue going on too. Zoom in - I have often thought this variable is often overstated. I take a look at 925mb temps above the surface to see if there is a modeled warm layer coming in. You can see below this is about the greatest inroads of above 0c (at least on the GFS model) That said it is just a model!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: I have often thought this variable is often overstated. I take a look at 925mb temps above the surface to see if there is a modeled warm layer coming in. You can see below this is about the greatest inroads of above 0c (at least on the GFS model) That said it is just a model!! Yeah I had looked at the 850s and 925s but in general, "warmer" means more moisture the air can hold, so you get a juicier storm. And then you have warmish wet ground (wet from the previous storm's couple inches of rain), and it would hard to get some accumulation. I haven't tried looking for any soundings but some forecasts were mentioning sleet and if that happens, that might actually chill the ground enough to produce a frozen bed for snow to pile on top of. I know the year before last, we had piles of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: What the hell is going on here these runs are getting laughable. The low is jumping all over the place. I have ever seen this before which low is the real storm??? It is clear to me at 18z the models are having significant issues dealing with the northern and southern streams here and whether to phase or not to phase. Yet they had the hoser storm wave nailed down for a week since it was out in Hawaii 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: The models need data from when a PAC system finally comes ashore into California - I think expected within the next 12 hours or so (based on the HPC surface forecast). I said this yesterday to Iceman. its expected. Wait until Wednesday Evening when the the NAM runs come in. Then things will adjust to reality. E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2023-2024 OBS/Discussion Albedoman replied to The Iceman's topic in Philadelphia Region 5 days out wild card outcomes coming up now in this run for some of these models. Model chaos going ballistic as the minimal PAC buoy info is now being fed into the models which is creating topsy turvy models expectations. . Will correct itself by Thursday morning. Cross your fingers and stay calm as even the Euro is known to do this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 if you are looking for a KU system this is not the storm. I totally agree with that, but something also tells me that this storm is not a nothing. I just have a feeling with these wild swings in modeling last 15 hours that there is data missing whether it be with the northern stream system, southern stream system, or the placement and modeling of the high to the north. My gut tells me that starting with 0z tonight and going out to 6z Thursday the weekend event's actual potential comes into view, and we see some positive changes for snow possibilities. My gut tells me that this is a 3-6" / 4-8" from Washington Dc, Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC points north and west. I think the further south and east you go it drops off pretty quick to 1-3" then 1" 45 miles from the coast and zero along the coast. Just my thinking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: if you are looking for a KU system this is not the storm. I totally agree with that, but something also tells me that this storm is not a nothing. I just have a feeling with these wild swings in modeling last 15 hours that there is data missing whether it be with the northern stream system, southern stream system, or the placement and modeling of the high to the north. My gut tells me that starting with 0z tonight and going out to 6z Thursday the weekend event's actual potential comes into view, and we see some positive changes for snow possibilities. My gut tells me that this is a 3-6" / 4-8" from Washington Dc, Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC points north and west. I think the further south and east you go it drops off pretty quick to 1-3" then 1" 45 miles from the coast and zero along the coast. Just my thinking right now. Well, I really hope you have a healthy gut because you sure are putting alot of stock into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 7 hours ago, Duca892 said: Le sigh. I really want my first Winter Storm Warning here in Bethlehem PA in ages, but might still be waiting. 7 hours ago, anthonyweather said: You’ll get one. Check out the UPSTATE PA thread . 3 hours ago, ChescoWx said: This is why I suspect the models are picking up on the impact of a little elevation above the fall line in some of the model snow forecasts. Elevation can make quite the difference in marginal storms. I have often seen my area get near 10:1 ratios above 650 ft asl while down at 350 ft it is mainly white rain When was the last WSW for Northern Chesco, 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 0z ICON was an improvement wrt track, strength,and confluence. Nice hit for most of E and SE PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Cmc is a hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs GFS is a beatdown...perfect ull pass keeps us snowing almost 18 hrs into Sunday evening lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS is a beatdown...perfect ull pass keeps us snowing almost 18 hrs into Sunday evening lol Daytime snow? Sounds preposterous 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 Canadian with probably the best hit yet those along and NW of 95 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 Damn 24 hrs and still snowing on gfs haven't seen cmc yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 3 Author Share Posted January 3 CMC is a mauling for SePA woah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn 24 hrs and still snowing on gfs haven't seen cmc yet These are the amounts apart of the ULL pass through behind the main "system". Many get 2-6", then we snow through the next day adding on another 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Damn 24 hrs and still snowing on gfs haven't seen cmc yet Stop teasing its a long time of light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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