Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,610
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January 6-7 Winter Storm


 Share

Recommended Posts

19 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

floop-18z-gfs-snow--2024010218.sn10_acc-imp.us_ne-01022024.gif

IMO, 1.36475% this happens. 18z is always a glimpse of hope/makes weenies happy, click their heels only to get shot down by the 0z later tonight.

Early Prediction:

Philly: 1-2", maybe 3", Local Burbs 3-5" or so, Far N/W 6+".

Marginal temps and the ocean is a boiling pot.

Hope I'm wrong and things roll in our favor but these things rarely work out but I'll take 3-4" w/winds... 

37F

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

IMO, 1.36475% this happens. 18z is always a glimpse of hope/makes weenies happy, click their heels only to get shot down by the 0z later tonight.

Early Prediction:

Philly: 1-2", maybe 3", Local Burbs 3-5" or so, Far N/W 6+".

Marginal temps and the ocean is a boiling pot.

Hope I'm wrong and things roll in our favor but these things rarely work out but I'll take 3-4" w/winds... 

37F

I think that is honestly a solid forecast from this vantage point!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

18z GFS ditches all-inland Miller-B type thing and coast hugs (edit - still wants a low to do a jump though).

floop-18z-gfs-2024010218.prateptype_cat-imp.conus-01022024.gif

What the hell is going on here these runs are getting laughable.  The low is jumping all over the place.  I have ever seen this before which low is the real storm???  It is clear to me at 18z the models are having significant issues dealing with the northern and southern streams here and whether to phase or not to phase. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

What the hell is going on here these runs are getting laughable.  The low is jumping all over the place.  I have ever seen this before which low is the real storm???  It is clear to me at 18z the models are having significant issues dealing with the northern and southern streams here and whether to phase or not to phase. 

The models need data from when a PAC system finally comes ashore into California - I think expected within the next 12 hours or so (based on the HPC surface forecast).

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

IMO, 1.36475% this happens. 18z is always a glimpse of hope/makes weenies happy, click their heels only to get shot down by the 0z later tonight.

Early Prediction:

Philly: 1-2", maybe 3", Local Burbs 3-5" or so, Far N/W 6+".

Marginal temps and the ocean is a boiling pot.

Hope I'm wrong and things roll in our favor but these things rarely work out but I'll take 3-4" w/winds... 

37F

Yeah, I think that's pretty much what I would expect at this point. Been novice tracking for almost 20 years now and historically that's how it pans out. Never underestimate the WAA for SEPA.

That being said, after last year I would take the crappy 3" of weekend wet snow

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The models need data from when a PAC system finally comes ashore into California - I think expected within the next 12 hours or so (based on the HPC surface forecast).

Yes, I do remember this point!  I should have known back where models have storm lose it then bring it back 3-4 days prior typical scene. The swings are just so wild.  I will say this if the models come back around again to 10-15" they will lock in.

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

We have this ocean temps issue going on too.

240102.002.1800.n24.jpg

Zoom in - 240102.002.1800.n24.jpg

 

I have often thought this variable is often overstated. I take a look at 925mb temps above the surface to see if there is a modeled warm layer coming in. You can see below this is about the greatest inroads of above 0c (at least on the GFS model) That said it is just a model!!image.thumb.png.329a040aa6f4ec3d48a8ade09ee5db15.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

I have often thought this variable is often overstated. I take a look at 925mb temps above the surface to see if there is a modeled warm layer coming in. You can see below this is about the greatest inroads of above 0c (at least on the GFS model) That said it is just a model!!image.thumb.png.329a040aa6f4ec3d48a8ade09ee5db15.png

Yeah I had looked at the 850s and 925s but in general, "warmer" means more moisture the air can hold, so you get a juicier storm.  And then you have warmish wet ground (wet from the previous storm's couple inches of rain), and it would hard to get some accumulation.

I haven't tried looking for any soundings but some forecasts were mentioning sleet and if that happens, that might actually chill the ground enough to produce a frozen bed for snow to pile on top of.  I know the year before last, we had piles of sleet. :axe:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

What the hell is going on here these runs are getting laughable.  The low is jumping all over the place.  I have ever seen this before which low is the real storm???  It is clear to me at 18z the models are having significant issues dealing with the northern and southern streams here and whether to phase or not to phase. 

Yet they had the hoser storm wave nailed down for a week since it was out in Hawaii

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

The models need data from when a PAC system finally comes ashore into California - I think expected within the next 12 hours or so (based on the HPC surface forecast).

I said this yesterday to Iceman. its expected. Wait until Wednesday Evening when the the NAM runs come in. Then things will adjust to reality.

5 days out wild card outcomes coming up now in this run for some of these models. Model chaos going ballistic as the minimal PAC buoy info is now being fed into the models which is creating topsy turvy models expectations. . Will correct itself by Thursday morning. Cross your fingers and stay calm as even the Euro is known to do this.
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 if you are looking for a KU system this is not the storm.  I totally agree with that, but something also tells me that this storm is not a nothing.

I just have a feeling with these wild swings in modeling last 15 hours that there is data missing whether it be with the northern stream system, southern stream system, or the placement and modeling of the high to the north.

My gut tells me that starting with 0z tonight and going out to 6z Thursday the weekend event's actual potential comes into view, and we see some positive changes for snow possibilities.

My gut tells me that this is a 3-6" / 4-8" from Washington Dc, Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC points north and west.  I think the further south and east you go it drops off pretty quick to 1-3" then 1" 45 miles from the coast and zero along the coast.

Just my thinking right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

 if you are looking for a KU system this is not the storm.  I totally agree with that, but something also tells me that this storm is not a nothing.

I just have a feeling with these wild swings in modeling last 15 hours that there is data missing whether it be with the northern stream system, southern stream system, or the placement and modeling of the high to the north.

My gut tells me that starting with 0z tonight and going out to 6z Thursday the weekend event's actual potential comes into view, and we see some positive changes for snow possibilities.

My gut tells me that this is a 3-6" / 4-8" from Washington Dc, Baltimore to Philadelphia to NYC points north and west.  I think the further south and east you go it drops off pretty quick to 1-3" then 1" 45 miles from the coast and zero along the coast.

Just my thinking right now.

Well, I really hope you have a healthy gut because you sure are putting alot of stock into it. :thumbsup:

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Duca892 said:

Le sigh. I really want my first Winter Storm Warning here in Bethlehem PA in ages, but might still be waiting. 

7 hours ago, anthonyweather said:


You’ll get one. Check out the UPSTATE PA thread


.

3 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

This is why I suspect the models are picking up on the impact of a little elevation above the fall line in some of the model snow forecasts. Elevation can make quite the difference in marginal storms. I have often seen my area get near 10:1 ratios above 650 ft asl while down at 350 ft it is mainly white rain

When was the last WSW for Northern Chesco, 2016?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Damn 24 hrs and still snowing on gfs haven't seen cmc yet

These are the amounts apart of the ULL pass through behind the main "system". Many get 2-6", then we snow through the next day adding on another 2-4

1585670891_sn10_024h-imp.us_ma(1).thumb.png.05ed89264ff115b607ebd7f267643b38.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...