MacChump Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 that’s always been my understanding anyway ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 this storm irritates the shit out of me 29 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, MacChump said: this storm irritates the shit out of me 29 degrees Just remember the weather is bigger than you are! Best be prepared! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 33 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: RGEM continues the much colder trend in the 0z suite. Stays mostly snow down to the Philly burbs. Weird....tt maps way different and warmer than last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 All Oz runs tonight so far are consistently painting 8 to 10 inches in the Lehigh Valley. It’s been a long time since I remember seeing good trends leading right up into the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 Seems like the NAM is on its own. Wrfs, fv3, and hrrr all norther and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 24f dp20 calm winds. Should be an interesting day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: All Oz runs tonight so far are consistently painting 8 to 10 inches in the Lehigh Valley. It’s been a long time since I remember seeing good trends leading right up into the storm. . Yeah you guys look gold up there. The marginal spots before are even more marginal now. That frontogenic 700mb lift band should be telling! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Yeah you guys look gold up there. The marginal spots before are even more marginal now. That frontogenic 700mb lift band should be telling!Yes sure looks like the real deal, falling right after dark too. 00z icon a nice bump up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Aaaaand the GFS gets warmer like the POS model it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 my eyes are all focused on the Tuesday/Wed storm. To hell with a 6-8+ in snow event tomorrow that will be all gone by Tuesday evening. Flooding is going to be a huge problem with down trees from the 30+ mph winds everywhere and power outages. Sump pumps will be going full board. MT Holly has been very concerned as well. The old timers know this is a perfect setup for localized flooding of basements. I see Easton possibly being flooded by the Delaware as the major rivers in our area hit flood stage. The Little Lehigh and Perkiomen will be be flooding and dozens roads will be unpassable. Do not know if it will be as bad as 1996 but it will be bad believe me. I am really surprised that no one is really discussing it, but it has the potential of being devastating for our area for flood damage. I having serious concerns that a potential of 15+ inches of precipitable water in the LV in the course of three weeks is not being more discussed in this forum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, Albedoman said: my eyes are all focused on the Tuesday/Wed storm. To hell with a 6-8+ in snow event tomorrow that will be all gone by Tuesday evening. Flooding is going to be a huge problem with down trees from the 30+ mph winds everywhere and power outages. Sump pumps will be going full board. MT Holly has been very concerned as well. The old timers know this is a perfect setup for localized flooding of basements. I see Easton possibly being flooded by the Delaware as the major rivers in our area hit flood stage. The Little Lehigh and Perkiomen will be be flooding and dozens roads will be unpassable. Do not know if it will be as bad as 1996 but it will be bad believe me. I am really surprised that no one is really discussing it, but it has the potential of being devastating for our area for flood damage. I having serious concerns that a potential of 15+ inches of precipitable water in the LV in the course of three weeks is not being more discussed in this forum. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, Albedoman said: my eyes are all focused on the Tuesday/Wed storm. To hell with a 6-8+ in snow event tomorrow that will be all gone by Tuesday evening. Flooding is going to be a huge problem with down trees from the 30+ mph winds everywhere and power outages. Sump pumps will be going full board. MT Holly has been very concerned as well. The old timers know this is a perfect setup for localized flooding of basements. I see Easton possibly being flooded by the Delaware as the major rivers in our area hit flood stage. The Little Lehigh and Perkiomen will be be flooding and dozens roads will be unpassable. Do not know if it will be as bad as 1996 but it will be bad believe me. I am really surprised that no one is really discussing it, but it has the potential of being devastating for our area for flood damage. I having serious concerns that a potential of 15+ inches of precipitable water in the LV in the course of three weeks is not being -more discussed in this forum. - Yea very concerned ditto!! River flooding will be an issue along the Delaware with 8-10" up north with placing 2-4" on top of that we will have the usual suspect streams and also rivers probably with moderate to major flooding. I think your 30 mph winds are too weak guess hence you said 30+ mph. I can see winds SSE 25-45 with gusts to 60-65 mph down trees power outages pretty high! Blizzards for the mid-west Chicago Iowa and eventually into the Ohio Valley Elkhart IN area in time. Great news for us laying down feet of snow in our cold source regions to our west that should help set up the east coast in about two weeks I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0z CMC hot off the press says we'll be doing this again in a week. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 29 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 0z CMC hot off the press says we'll be doing this again in a week. The GFS and the Candian are adverting a WILD weather pattern I mean wow for the Chicago area 969 mb wow! Get that energy to the Atlantic please. I think we may be stepping that way in time. That Canadian there God that reminds me of February 1983! Pattern coming up Mother of God! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 For what it's worth 0z ECM went a little colder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 they upped the snow totals to 8 in of snow in the LV in the pin point forecasts. WSW maybe issued in the next update later this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 This: does not match this: It's always interesting trying to sus out what models various weather services are using. Clearly these are divergent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6z RGEM jackpots…Chester County? Why am I up at 4 am looking at models in the first place? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 hours ago, anthonyweather said: All Oz runs tonight so far are consistently painting 8 to 10 inches in the Lehigh Valley. It’s been a long time since I remember seeing good trends leading right up into the storm. Hopefully it's a precursor for the rest of this winter's storms. Far to often, in the past, the trends were the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Western Chesco and Montgomery added to WWA PAZ101-103-062200- /O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.240106T1800Z-240107T1100Z/ Western Chester-Western Montgomery- Including the cities of Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, and Pottstown 316 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Western Chester and Western Montgomery. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Mount Pocono NAMmed with 20" plus of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 hours ago, Albedoman said: they upped the snow totals to 8 in of snow in the LV in the pin point forecasts. WSW maybe issued in the next update later this morning That's awfully late to be issuing a winter storm warning for a storm that starts in roughly 8-10 hours and you know it is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, LVblizzard said: 6z RGEM jackpots…Chester County? Why am I up at 4 am looking at models in the first place? Well models had me at 30 at 6:30 am I sit at 24 with a 17 dewpoint I will take. Well, well look at that Media on that map is like 4" yesterday I was sitting at 0.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, ChescoWx said: Western Chesco and Montgomery added to WWA PAZ101-103-062200- /O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.240106T1800Z-240107T1100Z/ Western Chester-Western Montgomery- Including the cities of Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, and Pottstown 316 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. * WHERE...Western Chester and Western Montgomery. * WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hedging... RGEM gives 2-4" basically into central Delaware County now and Euro ticked colder nowcast written all over it. If these models are off by 3-4 degrees things change drastically right on the other side of 95 and 476 it has happened before. Currently I have 24 Channel 10 had me at 30 at 7:00 am umm I don't think so. This 6-degree difference could come in handy in 7-9 hours. I have a 17 dewpoint too with a NE wind at 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 13 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: The hedging... RGEM gives 2-4" basically into central Delaware County now and Euro ticked colder nowcast written all over it. If these models are off by 3-4 degrees things change drastically right on the other side of 95 and 476 it has happened before. Currently I have 24 Channel 10 had me at 30 at 7:00 am umm I don't think so. This 6-degree difference could come in handy in 7-9 hours. I have a 17 dewpoint too with a NE wind at 4. I'm north of you and am at 28 with dp 24. I actually bottomed out at 23 at about 2:15 am this morning and the temp/dp has been creeping up ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I'm north of you and am at 28 with dp 24. I actually bottomed out at 23 at about 2:15 am this morning and the temp/dp has been creeping up ever since. yep I am now at 26 dewpoint is 18. Temp has gone up from 24 to 26 in the last 35 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: yep I am now at 26 dewpoint is 18. Temp has gone up from 24 to 26 in the last 35 minutes. There is junk and stuff rolling up the Appalachian spine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6z EC hires maintaining that death band potential up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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