ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NBM continues to lower snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillyPete Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: NBM continues to lower snow totals I've come to recognize the NBM model as the NIMBY model, or the NVM model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12z Euro decided to keep the low inland all the way up until it got close to here and then says - "oh yeah, better head on out over the water". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 12z Euro decided to keep the low inland all the way up until it got close to here and then says - "oh yeah, better head on out over the water". LOL! I was just about to say we probably have one more NAM'ing in us (either 18z or 0z) before 6z sends the low up the Garden State Parkway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I can feel DT's last call numbers dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Winter weather advisory for Berks and Lehigh, 3-5". Honestly surprised NWS went that high, was expecting 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NWS Just issues a WWA for Berks, Lehigh and Upper Bucks counties and increased snow totals to 1" to 3" here in NW Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, Newman said: Winter weather advisory for Berks and Lehigh, 3-5". Honestly surprised NWS went that high, was expecting 2-4 I was surprised how long it took them to issue anything for Berks and Lehigh. I guess its a battle zone area at this point on the models anyway. This morning Accuweather went from 3-6 to 1-3 for this area, but earlier went back to the 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I was surprised how long it took them to issue anything for Berks and Lehigh. I guess its a battle zone area at this point on the models anyway. This morning Accuweather went from 3-6 to 1-3 for this area, but earlier went back to the 3-6.3-6 is probably the best call for LV , more in the elevations . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I dislike this storm! 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beagles20 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: 3-6 is probably the best call for LV , more in the elevations . Agreed! Happy with 3-6, happier with more, frown with less. Time will tell. At least we get to see some white stuff finally. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18z HRRR at range, so yeah, pretty much useless -- looks a little like the NAM the other day, thump to dry slot. Tracks the storm across DE into S NJ and exits around Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Mount Holly just re-issued the WWA for Berks, Lehigh, Hunterdon as 3-6" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And the 18z NAM coming in cooler with the thermals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Newman said: Mount Holly just re-issued the WWA for Berks, Lehigh, Hunterdon as 3-6" now It was 3-5 inches earlier, so not a significant change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The 850s are held more at bay on the NAM, aided by the mid-level circulation passage coming in a bit further south this go around. Just now, MGorse said: It was 3-5 inches earlier, so not a significant change. Yes just pointing it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Storms like this make me glad I didn't choose to go the forecasting route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Storms like this make me glad I didn't choose to go the forecasting routeNAM still spitting out 5-7” in the Lehigh valley Up to 10-12” in higher elevations of poconos . GFS similar with about. 6-10” for both LV and poconos Euro and RGEM around 4” in LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Whatever is falling at this time (if the upper air is correct) is not white north of ABE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 41 minutes ago, Newman said: Storms like this make me glad I didn't choose to go the forecasting route Oh come on, you miss it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 20 minutes ago, MGorse said: Oh come on, you miss it. I do, hence why I'm even in this forum posting about a snowstorm I won't be experiencing lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The RGEM comes in cooler as well, following the NAMs. Again, there was a very slight shift south with the 850mb low, but each mile matters as the rain-snow line battle will be a real one. Below is a sounding from the RGEM for tomorrow evening in eastern Berks county 0z UTC. Between 21z and 3z (so like 4pm-10pm) is when much of the NW burbs will see their best snow growth. After that, rates will drop off. Certainly not extremely "unstable", but the mid-levels do have pretty steep lapse rates and that will aid in dynamics. Between 4pm-7pm the RGEM has a solid 700mb fronto band push through. This is that initial "thump" that many will be relying on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 My area just got rgem'd 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 I will take my slushy 5-8" rgem and hug it til the geese come home! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I will take my slushy 5-8" rgem and hug it til the geese come home!Take a peak at the new GFS… much like RGEM now . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18z NAM/RGEM/GFS all colder. Every little change is so stressful for me near Allentown. I can hear I-78 from my yard and that very well may be the dividing line between snow and rain/mix tomorrow evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18z GFS with a low trying to act like an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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