Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: NAM is a troll, a bot. Son of a bitch does it every time. Not reeling me in...no way, no how until it gets support. 29F Typical bias at this range. Corrects at 12z tomorrow. Don't trust the NAM until under 30hrs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Other mesos coming in warmer. Track keeps nudging N as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Yeah the FV3 is warm, it honestly looks pretty reasonable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1z NBM holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 RGEM seems pretty reasonable to me. Not as cold as the NAM, not as blowtorchy as the FV3. Good hit for the LV and Poconos. It’s been pretty consistent showing something like this in the past few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I wonder if the Winter Storm Watch gets expanded to include at least Berks and Lehigh counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS holds the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS is definitely better than it's 18z run. Canadian better for most than it's 12z run. Overall, things look a lot more juiced up on everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 23 minutes ago, MGorse said: I wonder if the Winter Storm Watch gets expanded to include at least Berks and Lehigh counties. geographically, they should issue winter storm watches. The physical geography does NOT lie with the location I-78 but the the south mountain/Blue Mountain range for all precip forecasting Pin point forecasting does not work well above the south mountain range IMHO and is basically useless. Using I-78 as a weather demarcation line does not work in the LV because the interstate divides the LV in half going west to east instead of north and south at it lowest elevation. There is no room for error. Once it starts snowing on the northeast side of South Mountain range near MACUNGIE, all forecasted snow accumulations are off and stack up quickly. Want proof, SIMPLY ask a Penndot plower. They sit at the top of the hills everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Family member model or the FFM says rain or maybe 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 32 minutes ago, RedSky said: Family member model or the FFM says rain or maybe 1" What are your expectations? Model blend tonight would probably be 1-3” for Royersford so keeping mine around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: What are your expectations? Model blend tonight would probably be 1-3” for Royersford so keeping mine around there. 1-3" is about right Set expectations at 4-6" imby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I will set the bar in Media Delaware County at 0.7" on the grass before a flip unless there is a hail mary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 If I was forecasting this with maybe 1" to 2" shaved off from ABE southward would be about what I would show.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro a bit weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: Euro a bit weaker Takes away the Sunday snow too. Still nice for the LV/Poconos as the front end thump delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Experimental rapid refresh forecasting system . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Experimental rapid refresh forecasting system . Anthony what model is that one using? NAM/HRRR?? thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Anthony what model is that one using? NAM/HRRR?? thanks!Believe it’s based around the FV3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 So, looks like PHL will keep the record going and doesn't look to be touched in the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, hazwoper said: So, looks like PHL will keep the record going and doesn't look to be touched in the foreseeable future. The 12z NAM is running but the 6z seemed to have dried up a bit down this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillyPete Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I just want to see the snow before it switches over. Any idea what time it might start in SEPA? I'd be thrilled if this thump verified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'm setting the bar at 1.5" imby. Is anything is still on the ground Sunday morning? Not overly confident about that. Guess my shovel gets to keep its cobwebs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12z NAM total ice and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12z Canadian & 13z NBM. Same theme of I-78/I-80 north special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I don't really follow the FV3 HiRes, so I don't know how good it is or isn't, but looks warm for SE PA, mainly a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Models have been trending quicker with the timing of the start and end of the snow tomorrow. Hopefully this means the warm air doesn’t quite get here until after most of the precip has passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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