Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Most guidance is primed for a winter storm this weekend. Euro, GFS, and ICON are hits i95 N and W. CMC and UKMET have the line much farther N and W. This is the place to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Eps is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Classic i95 line there^^ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks like a pretty classical textbook SECS for most the area across most guidance. Model guidance seems to be verifying well with the recent more mundane weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I'm heading back west on Saturday morning, just in time to miss the first big east coast snow in 2 years... Helped my dad pull the snowblower out and gas it up yesterday. Berks and the LHV usually does well in these types of storms, in fact even though we're still days away I wouldn't be surprised if they "jackpot" with heavier totals. All speculation as of now. One thing I've noticed just glancing at the models is there seems to be a cap on totals with this. A relatively quickly moving system so despite being a STJ brewed storm, there won't be much time to precipitate absurd amounts. 12-15" max type of storm, which is still great especially after the past few winters. GFS has obviously been trending much further north with Confluence in SE Canada retreating further north. Euro is better, CMC worse. Seems like a classic EC storm progression leading up! If I had to take a crack at where the heaviest band sets up, I'd say Northern Berks up through Lehigh, Schuylkill, Carbon, Monroe... That general area. I do believe amplification and a warmer solution is much more probable compared to getting a whiff south 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The NBM not a bad place to start IMHO at this distance from the event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gfs is a beaut . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The GFS coming in with it's most north and warm run yet. And as I suspected, it's weaker as well. The 12z CMC coming in south from it's previous runs though, almost lining up with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Very similar runs between the GFS and Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Yet again, 10: 1 does not apply, especially at marginal temps . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Yet again, 10: 1 does not apply, especially at marginal temps . Of course - as it gets closer I prefer the positive snow depth view.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The 12z GEFS just shifted significantly further north with a much lower snowfall mean for the entire area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Again a bit more realistic in my view to use the ensemble means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Whoof hope this isn't that NW Trend that tends to happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Not a good trend for Philly and the immediate suburbs. Lehigh Valley on north still looks decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I 95 and east not looking good. Still ok far north and west but the trends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phillyPete Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Well, we knew the NW trend was going to come. Now we get to watch the windshield wiper effect that says we'll get between 1-12" in PHL. It's the classic coastal plain battle.. although I don't remember seeing much of this last year at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The trend is very clear last 12 hours north closer to coast weaker storm. I give to 0z tomorrow night. Bring on Euro! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Euro has to hold or it’s time to sound the alarms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Euro has to hold or it’s time to sound the alarms. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This looks like a classic 30-40 miles on Nw of the city gets walloped type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 NGP (Navgem) is a Philly Special. Perfect track. Hug the piss out of it before the Euro say NO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12z euro is much faster with the northern energy likely to be a big change of some kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Mmm euro gonna do everyone good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 At hour 108 low over NNC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Mmm euro gonna do everyone good . Not the Philly S&E Slightly weaker storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Not the Philly S&W Slightly weaker storm Weaker and disorganized. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks like another I-95 battle on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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