January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[jayyy]

May head up to my parents house tonight in the Hudson valley depending on how things look tonight. They have a warning up for 6-10”, should remain all snow. Have off work until Tuesday, so perhaps I’ll head up to “visit my folks”. Haven’t decided quite yet.

[WxUSAF]

High of 39 and starting to tick down. Dew is 18.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

May head up to my parents house tonight in the Hudson valley depending on how things look tonight. They have a warning up for 6-10”, should remain all snow. Have off work until Tuesday, so perhaps I’ll head up to “visit my folks”. Haven’t decided quite yet.

ive always wanted to meet them

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

High of 39 and starting to tick down. Dew is 18.

If we have clear skies until the overnight hours I feel like we can see temps bust low. Not sure that will matter, but it’s nice to have hope.

[WEATHER53]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Still clear skies over here. 39/22. If we can hold off the clouds until well after sunset, maybe we can enhance the in situ airmass

I think we get sufficient clouds by 10pm to slow the temp drop to just 2/3 more degrees the rest of the overnight. I think its the low dews that have a slightly more positive effects 

[mappy]

14 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s only 36 here with clear skies. Models only drop it here to 28 tonight. I don’t see how it doesn’t get colder. 

I hit 37 at 3pm but back down to 35 now. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, mappy said:

I hit 37 at 3pm but back down to 35 now. 

I have a feeling it will drop to low 20s here. It was 14 last night. 

[Interstate]

18 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s only 36 here with clear skies. Models only drop it here to 28 tonight. I don’t see how it doesn’t get colder. 

Southernly winds

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Southernly winds

Think it is more of a cloud cover issue. 

[Wxdavis5784]

19 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s only 36 here with clear skies. Models only drop it here to 28 tonight. I don’t see how it doesn’t get colder. 

Clouds? I am sitting at 36 just north of you as well with clear skies, for now.

[Wxdavis5784]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Think it is more of a cloud cover issue. 

 

Just now, Wxdavis5784 said:

Clouds? I am sitting at 36 just north of you as well with clear skies, for now.

I see a few others beat me to it.

[aldie 22]

Got up to 40 here no clouds yet

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

Clouds? I am sitting at 36 just north of you as well with clear skies, for now.

I just think it drops lower before the clouds 

[Wxdavis5784]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

I just think it drops lower before the clouds 

I am hopeful. 

[eddygeeme]

4 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

 

I see a few others beat me to it.

The more hours we can get of clear skies the better. Sunset is in a hour best solution is to have clear skies for  good part of the at least up to midnight get those temps to drop and hold off a slow rise until the precip moves in.

[NorthArlington101]

a good southeast shift on the RGEM and nobody bothered to post it? smh 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

a good southeast shift on the RGEM and nobody bothered to post it? smh 

The snow in Arkansas effect being seen finally!

[weatherCCB]

38/20 here

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I just think it drops lower before the clouds 

A lot of times the temp will creep back up slightly once the cloud deck moves in. The dews staying down are pretty key. 

[hstorm]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

a good southeast shift on the RGEM and nobody bothered to post it? smh 

Seems mainly due to an increase in QPF (which leads to more front-end snow).  Overall thermals seem largely the same as 12z.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

The snow in Arkansas effect being seen finally!

Maybe the model is finally taking the geese migrations into account!

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

a good southeast shift on the RGEM and nobody bothered to post it? smh 

Sorry, I’ve moved onto tracking front end snow from the next rainstorm 

[IronTy]

Hell, even down by the bay I've dropped to 39F with clear skies.  Gonna make that rain as cold as possle.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18z HRRR really nails NNE. But even Boston changes over to rain. 

[stormy]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

35/20. Forecast high of 42 is going to bust. Will be watching to see those temps crash tonight before the cloud cover moves in. 

I'm much warmer down here in Augusta at 40.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z HRRR really nails NNE. But even Boston changes over to rain.

Best news I've heard today. Barely nudges out Little Rock seeing snow.

[IronTy]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z HRR really nails NNE. But even Boston changes over to rain. 

It looks like these maps are generated on an Atari.  Is this what my tax dollars are going to?

[Terpeast]

18z 3k nam thermals colder between 11-16z tomorrow

[Warm Nose]

Got up to 43 here. Seems promising 

[eddygeeme]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I just think it drops lower before the clouds 

Yup sunset is in less than a hour, cold ground fresh cold air mass they should drop. The battle won't be the airmass we have but the low track which is why if your a winter weather lover you need it as cold as you can possibly get it and you want some cooperation with the low.

That said there should be a good initial thump with the moisture available. The earlier it moves in the better.

-Keep clear to partyly cloudy skies so temps drop like a rock after sunset.

-Get clouds to roll in before sunrise

-Pray for decent front end thump. Have seen situations where a decent surprising front end thump along with a slightly favorable LP track holds more places over to the wintry precip side longer before any changeover occurs. There have been worse set ups.