psuhoffman Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 NAM moved towards phasing that trailing SW in. If that trend continues it’s not impossible to get a little snow Sunday if there is enough cold. Ya i know lol 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 NAM trying to bring some wrap around out this way too. Also a pretty strong ULL there as well. Interesting run. NAM thermals + euro track = yes please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 RGEM 996 over OC this run. A touch warmer. But it basically hasnt flinched for multiple runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 There's an issue when the NAM is our best option ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 There's an issue when the NAM is our best option ...Gfs has been our best option. Until it caves to the euro in 40 minutes. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 RGEM 996 over OC this run. A touch warmer. But it basically hasnt flinched for multiple runs now. I think most people are very frightened by a touch warmer at this juncture to be honest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I think most people are very frightened by a touch warmer at this juncture to be honest It actually has .1 more for DC this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 It actually has .1 more for DC this run Snows for 15 minutes rather than 0? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Looking at the 0z nam and 18z gfs just now… I feel that trailing vort might do some weird things if it gets closer to the backside 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 3k Dews are nice heading into the event. Dont like extrapolating the NAM's obviously. But I think it would have had a nice thump at least for everyone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Fallen behind on some things that have been developed more recently. FV3 a decent high res model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 This was unexpected. Light sleet and snow falling for me right now in Charlottesville. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Well that GFS run sucked! Throwing the towel in on this weekend. Hopefully we can catch some cold temps with one of the other waves the next few weeks. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 13 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: My forecast for this upcoming storm lol Good thing the long range doesn't actually look too crappy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 So much for a good gfs run, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Not sure why this run sucks. Synoptically it looks the same to me. Slp and sfc high placements shuffle a bit, thermals fluctuate a tiny bit. It’s noise. Nothing really changed Both 0z nam and gfs are finally in agreement. Well, for this run at least 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Not sure why this run sucks. Synoptically it looks the same to me. Slp and sfc high placements shuffle a bit, thermals fluctuate a tiny bit. It’s noise. Nothing really changedTime for the Meso models and hoping cmc is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 GFS no longer has gradient over moco, ill take it despite less snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Not sure why this run sucks. Synoptically it looks the same to me. Slp and sfc high placements shuffle a bit, thermals fluctuate a tiny bit. It’s noise. Nothing really changed Both 0z nam and gfs are finally in agreement. Well, for this run at leastThe one thing I noticed were warmer 850s… not by much but every tick in the wrong direction makes it harder to go back in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Not sure why this run sucks. Synoptically it looks the same to me. Slp and sfc high placements shuffle a bit, thermals fluctuate a tiny bit. It’s noise. Nothing really changed Both 0z nam and gfs are finally in agreement. Well, for this run at least That was my very amateur read as well. Looked almost identical to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Not sure why this run sucks. Synoptically it looks the same to me. Slp and sfc high placements shuffle a bit, thermals fluctuate a tiny bit. It’s noise. Nothing really changed Pretty similar. Just Cut back on precip. The gfs has done that off and on the last couple of days. 1.5 qpf then it will have a run if .75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Gfs to me looks like a 2 to 4 inch event before a chang over to rain for me in north central md.. not bad for a first event of season. Hopefully that's just the beginning of whats to come later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Not sure why this run sucks. Synoptically it looks the same to me. Slp and sfc high placements shuffle a bit, thermals fluctuate a tiny bit. It’s noise. Nothing really changed Both 0z nam and gfs are finally in agreement. Well, for this run at leastThe low is too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Time for the Meso models and hoping cmc is right Yeah we should start looking at mesos now, its 60 hours till game time. CMC - careful what you wish for. Brutal cutoff in snow amounts. I’d prefer a more uniform thump for most of us even if the jack is less snow. Lets save the biggie for the better pattern up ahead 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Gfs to me looks like a 2 to 4 inch event before a chang over to rain for me in north central md.. not bad fir a first wvent of season. Hopefully thsts just the beginning of whats to come laterA low level warning event is still in the cards in my neck of the woods in Carroll county. Not counting us out just yet. Still think we see things shift a bit further SE between now and tomorrow night. This is the appetizer in the upcoming pattern. MLK day and beyond is gonna be a smoke show. Can feel it in my bones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 1 minute ago, jayyy said: A low level warning event is still in the cards in my neck of the woods in Carroll county. Not counting us out just yet. Still think we see things shift a bit further SE between now and tomorrow night. This is the appetizer in the upcoming pattern. MLK day and beyond is gonna be a smoke show. Can feel it in my bones. Yeah i saw that bro long range is looking good for us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 10 minutes ago, Ji said: The low is too far west Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Tuesday fell apart too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 It’s okay guys, we’re gonna wake up to a 6z NAMing . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4, 2024 Share Posted January 4, 2024 Just now, jayyy said: It’s okay guys, we’re gonna wake up to a 6z NAMing . I can live with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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