January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[psuhoffman]

this is what I mean.  And ya of course if we had some arctic banana 1035 high instead of the inverted trough to a NS system ya…but that was never the setup. Within this paradigm we got most everything to go our way, as it often does in a Nino, we just need it to trend a few degrees colder. It’s not impossible!  It’s a minor adjustment. The NAM was much cooler leading in but it has the wrong synoptic solution. lol. That said given the recent results I’d rather need warmer v colder as an adjustment 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

this is what I mean.  And ya of course if we had some arctic banana 1035 high instead of the inverted trough to a NS system ya…but that was never the setup. Within this paradigm we got most everything to go our way, as it often does in a Nino, we just need it to trend a few degrees colder. It’s not impossible!  It’s a minor adjustment. The NAM was much cooler leading in but it has the wrong synoptic solution. lol. That said given the recent results I’d rather need warmer v colder as an adjustment 

Perfect track rainstorm lol

[DarkSharkWX]

EPS looks a bit weaker but same wrt to temps and track, i think it will hold gen

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We’re wine club members at Stone Tower. Beautiful spot up there on Hogback. You should do well even compared to Leesburg. 

My wife and I were married at Stone Tower...beautiful spot

[DarkSharkWX]

mean is less but thats just cause less precip

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Perfect track rainstorm lol

Ya I know but I’m not trying to have that fight again.  My point was we don’t need a track adjustment. Case in point 18z euro was a little southeast of its 12z track and it’s slightly warmer. 

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ya I know but I’m not trying to have that fight again.  My point was we don’t need a track adjustment. Case in point 18z euro was a little southeast of its 12z track and it’s slightly warmer. 

Looking at the closer up map on weather models site it has a low over the bay. Probably what makes it too warm. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

mean is less but thats just cause less precip

The eps has been a false positive. At longer leads the ensemble will have a more expensive snow shield due to spread. As the lead shortens it will tighten up as variance decreases. You don’t want to be near the southern area of the snow ok an ensemble at 72+ hours. As the gradient tightens you’ll usually end up on the wrong side. 

[DarkSharkWX]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The eps has been a false positive. At longer leads the ensemble will have a more expensive snow shield due to spread. As the lead shortens it will tighten up as variance decreases. You don’t want to be near the southern area of the snow ok an ensemble at 72+ hours. As the gradient tightens you’ll usually end up on the wrong side. 

true

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The eps has been a false positive. At longer leads the ensemble will have a more expensive snow shield due to spread. As the lead shortens it will tighten up as variance decreases. You don’t want to be near the southern area of the snow ok an ensemble at 72+ hours. As the gradient tightens you’ll usually end up on the wrong side. 

18z definitely tightened up the goal posts.

Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event?

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

My wife and I were married at Stone Tower...beautiful spot

To each other?  If not that’s a story I need to hear!!! 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

18z definitely tightened up the goal posts.

Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event?

Getting there but in a case with divergent camps they can still be useful.  It the op will be better at details and thermals. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

18z definitely tightened up the goal posts.

Are we at the end of the ensembles being useful for this event?

Did by “tightening up” did you mean “move far away?”

lol

I’m down on this one, don’t think this is trending in the right direction. 
 

Surprise me. 

[eddygeeme]

This will come down to a game of watching temps Friday Night with lows in the mid to upper 20s with clear skies giving way to increasing clouds across much the forecast area sw to ne. Where temps drop enough before the cloud cover comes in will help greatly. Check your temps if you're low to mid 30s overnight Friday..... I'm expecting the typical slop across the area from heavy rain to heavy snow and everything in between.

 

EDIT-High IMBY Saturday is 35 low 31 Saturday night. Temps running 2-3 degrees colder Friday night and holding thru Sat early afternoon changes a lot.

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, eddygeeme said:

This will come down to a game of watching temps Friday Night with lows in the mid to upper 20s with clear skies giving way to increasing clouds across much the forecast area sw to ne. Where temps drop enough before the cloud cover comes in will help greatly. Check your temps if you're just at or above freezing late night Friday.....

well so far DCA hasn't been below freezing since before Christmas, and even up here around 400 ft in Tenleytown we have just barely grazed the freezing point.  Hopefully the air mass in place in a couple days can push the temps down a bit.

[Buddy1987]

NAM at 57 looks pretty darn cold with cad far down into southern/southwestern NC and a good slug of freezing rain pushing through that area.

[StormyClearweather]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

NAM at 57 looks pretty darn cold with cad far down into southern/southwestern NC and a good slug of freezing rain pushing through that area.

Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM. 

[StormyClearweather]

3 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM. 

 

Column cools quicky though once precip starts, so ignore me. 

[StormyClearweather]

Looking far better at good ole 69, FWIW

 

[Solution Man]

Nam looks ok to me….

[LeesburgWx]

Yeah, we take the 00z NAM all day

[Imgoinhungry]

Yeah, we take the 00z NAM all day

Only a three hour window of snow before a switch to rain? Unless im looking at the wrong run?


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[pazzo83]

R/S line literally on I-95 from just south of DC to Philly

[DDweatherman]

[Ji]

Only a three hour window of snow before a switch to rain? Unless im looking at the wrong run?


.

I think nam is in catch up mode. It gave me .15 liquid at 12z lol

[jayyy]

One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system


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[clskinsfan]

NAM trying to bring some wrap around out this way too. Also a pretty strong ULL there as well. Interesting run. 

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system


.

Quick, we need the Ralph Wiggum NAM GIF 

[WesternFringe]

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

One thing is for sure… NAM has an actual system there, which is certainly better than 18z’s depiction of a non system


.

Hopefully it is picking up on better thermals and the ops are right with the amplitude and track.  At this range, both of these can be true