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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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Finally, a legit jebwalk. Time to unplug and just enjoy the snow for a while.

1.5” and moderate snow up at my parents house.
28 degrees winds from the ENE at 10 mph
Temp DOWN 3 degrees since precip began.

Latest Upton NWS update calling for 8-10”


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On 1/5/2024 at 9:52 AM, ers-wxman1 said:

The pattern is missing key features that would generate a solid winter storm not just for the MA but for the Northeast as well. How many arctic intrusions with wind chill headlines and sub zero air masses over the northern Plains and Great Lakes this season. None. Very abnormal to see this over an extended period like we have. Bass boats were being launched on the lakes in Minnesota on 12/27, on a lake where cars normally drive on with thick ice. Something is amiss and yes it would take a larger scale phenomenon to get it to shift.

No mechanisms in place to both drive arctic air in and keep it. Pattern is not amplified like needed. No blocking, no ridging out over the western U.S. we get cool passages with modified air. Not going to get it done. El Niño is only one factor. That just guarantees more southern stream energy, drought going away with ample moisture but it does NOT necessarily mean more snow. No cold air to produce. PSU is correct in his assessment. Going to take a more persistent change or else it’s more of the same.

I agree with everything you say here other than the "something is amiss" comment.   It is plenty cold, just not here.  While a significant portion of the US has been experiencing above average temperatures and the current snow drought has been historic, it has also been really cold in other parts of the world during this same time period.  In fact areas in Asia experienced record breaking cold last winter and this has continued in to Russia and Siberia this year.   Here is an article from our old friend @Ian 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/06/siberia-russia-extreme-cold-asia/

We simply need to wait for our turn and I think, based on the recent guidance, our turn is right around the corner.

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285d51330fe09cdfaad6a0b470f4b02d.jpg

Well worth the drive up here. Over 4” so far. Over 1” per hour rates currently. Should end up around 9” at this rate.

The holiday period is REALLY rough in my line of work. Amazing what a good snow can do for your mental wellbeing.

Hope to bring winter back home with me

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My brother lives in Bedford PA  He says about 7
 
 
E2DA3F61-E531-4AE7-B758-6AC1EF0A7624.jpeg.24717097cdfb70dc0cd982356ad91772.jpeg

Awesome! Honestly, that was one of the best snows I’ve witnessed in years... and I’ve witnessed a bunch of absolute maulers in my life living in the elevations of the Hudson Valley for over 25 years, as well as our big storms from 2010 through now down in the DMV area. The combo of the rates to end that storm with the sheer size of the snowflakes, it was an amazing sight.

There are a bunch of reports of upwards of 9” of snow falling in under 3 hours in some areas from NEPA into the Hudson valley toward Newburgh. Some models (GFS RGEM etc) nailed the existence of that deathband, but were off with its location.

My soul needed that.
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11.8” of snow is the official report from Middletown. Reports of 14+” to my NE near Poughkeepsie, which was ground zero for that band.


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I was at Whitetail yesterday, where they ended up with around 6-8”.

It was a rainstorm until I was close to Hagerstown, and afterwards it didn’t take long to change over to heavy snow. Fun times.

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13 hours ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I agree with everything you say here other than the "something is amiss" comment.   It is plenty cold, just not here.  While a significant portion of the US has been experiencing above average temperatures and the current snow drought has been historic, it has also been really cold in other parts of the world during this same time period.  In fact areas in Asia experienced record breaking cold last winter and this has continued in to Russia and Siberia this year.   Here is an article from our old friend @Ian 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/06/siberia-russia-extreme-cold-asia/

We simply need to wait for our turn and I think, based on the recent guidance, our turn is right around the corner.

image.thumb.png.7f29275ee7325ad98929884a7dc1597a.png

 

Further to this, Scandinavia is also having its coldest winter in decades. 

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Congrats, Pennsylvania! Anyone up in New England want to regale us with stories of the pasting they got?
I’m sitting here with soggy ground after a day of cold, driving rain and I’d so love to hear about places outside of our sub fared. Hope they did wel since they really deserve it!

I’m in York and we got about 2 inches and then sleet and rain.
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Congrats, Pennsylvania! Anyone up in New England want to regale us with stories of the pasting they got?
I’m sitting here with soggy ground after a day of cold, driving rain and I’d so love to hear about places outside of our sub fared. Hope they did wel since they really deserve it!

Saw a foot up here in Orange County NY at my parents house. 7.5 of which fell in a 3 hour span. Mashed potatoes FTW. Pretty awesome storm.


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1 hour ago, mdhokie said:

Driving through our neighborhood this morning, about an inch on top of the ~4 inches from yesterday.

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Light to moderate snow all day at Wisp, made for a good day skiing and no crowds!

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Driving through the state park on the way home:

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It was a total whiteout leaving our neighborhood in Canaan this afternoon 

20240107_140206.jpg

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