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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Like  way better  so perhaps  6 hour panic over?

probably not - but nice to know that outcome still exists in somewhere in the supercomputer's brain.

FWIW, here is the snow depth map. I'd bite on 2-5" forum-wide, even in D.C. Too bad that has no bearing on the outcome

1704600000-qvnmZs4JO0c.png

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Like  way better  so perhaps  6 hour panic over?

Meh, I’m always selling GFS temp profile. All I’m getting from this run is that it’s completely folded the stronger wave idea. Bump the snow map a good bit NW imo. Not to be deb. Just experience and blending other guidance


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Just now, Heisy said:


Meh, I’m always selling GFS temp profile. All I’m getting from this run is that it’s completely folded the stronger wave idea. Bump the snow map a good bit NW imo. Not to be deb. Just experience and blending other guidance.

yeah, GFS runs too warm. prob subtract another 2-4 degrees of this run to run change. :weenie:

1704589200-mXtjLa4D4x0.png

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx

Thoughts on this...

I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work.

Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones.  The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it.  

So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 

1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain.  This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario.

2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW.  

I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible.  Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO.  That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to.  I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm.  

Thoughts?  

@psuhoffman, this is a very interesting potential, even if it's not quite so likely at this point.  I'm talking your 2nd one, where the trailing wave is actually "the" one.  Haven't we seen this either occur before, or looked like it could happen but was too little too late for our area?  The scenario sounds a bit familiar from previous events in the past.  So it doesn't seem all that wild to keep in mind.

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx

Thoughts on this...

I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work.

Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones.  The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it.  

So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 

1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain.  This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario.

2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW.  

I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible.  Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO.  That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to.  I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm.  

Thoughts?  

Funny you mention that because that’s pretty much what the GFS did and is a great way for many to score in this setup. Simplicity is best. A wall of moisture running into cold air with decent mid-level ascent focused over the central Mid Atlantic. These are some of our favorite type of events. They come in hot and slam for 8-12 hrs then scoot out. Typical caveats aside with the fall line and southeast being prone to changing over, but it would offer the opportunity for a period of heavy snowfall before any potential flip. Just one of the possible outcomes in this setup. 

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx

Thoughts on this...

I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work.

Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones.  The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it.  

So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 

1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain.  This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario.

2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW.  

I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible.  Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO.  That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to.  I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm.  

Thoughts?  

Option 1 I would think is safer but with less upside. 

I know your moose hunting  but I would gladly take a squirl , fox or anything in between. :lol:

Edit:  @psuhoffman can you explain why our qpf increased even with the system being weaker?

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22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There is certainly still some volatility at this stage. State Collège went from 10" at 12z to less than 2 on HH GFS. One more proportional shift SE might do the trick. B)

I hope we get that so you get in on the action.  You are doing a yeoman’s work this winter.  And you’re not even Yeoman!  

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I hope we get that so you get in on the action.  You are doing a yeoman’s work this winter.  And you’re not even Yeoman!  

lol thanks. I'm good. If this winter goes as expected, the last 6 weeks or so of met winter should make most in this region happy. Otherwise, I chase. Kinda thinking about hanging out in Gettysburg this weekend.:bike:

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2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Lots of wobbling in the same general area. We are known to loose a storm for a few runs only to have it trend better within 72 hours I would say this one will be no different.

9f5e75d8-4ac3-4d9b-9f75-8b770a252958.gif

Just by looking at this, it seems like the 18z gfs is depicting a completely different synoptic setup than any of the previous runs. 

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That 18z gfs run sucked me back in. Def better output for normal nw areas except now it extends back all the way down 81 corridor. LLC looks to have had a slight win compared to previous two runs. EPS wasn’t horrid. This may still have legs. Sucker me in one more time. 

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