NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Like way better so perhaps 6 hour panic over? probably not - but nice to know that outcome still exists in somewhere in the supercomputer's brain. FWIW, here is the snow depth map. I'd bite on 2-5" forum-wide, even in D.C. Too bad that has no bearing on the outcome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z 12z I went from first shade blue to first shade purple 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Like way better so perhaps 6 hour panic over?Meh, I’m always selling GFS temp profile. All I’m getting from this run is that it’s completely folded the stronger wave idea. Bump the snow map a good bit NW imo. Not to be deb. Just experience and blending other guidance . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 GFS also moves away from the LP transfer idea. Looks pretty different from the last several runs IMO. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Heisy said: Meh, I’m always selling GFS temp profile. All I’m getting from this run is that it’s completely folded the stronger wave idea. Bump the snow map a good bit NW imo. Not to be deb. Just experience and blending other guidance. yeah, GFS runs too warm. prob subtract another 2-4 degrees of this run to run change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 DPs on the GFS are in the upper teens to low 20s Saturday morning before precip arrives. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18z GFS doubles my snow from 5 to 10 inches. The front end thump is intense with the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Large swath of 1”+ liq equivalent. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 24 hour change lol. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx Thoughts on this... I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work. Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones. The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it. So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain. This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario. 2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW. I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible. Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO. That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to. I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm. Thoughts? @psuhoffman, this is a very interesting potential, even if it's not quite so likely at this point. I'm talking your 2nd one, where the trailing wave is actually "the" one. Haven't we seen this either occur before, or looked like it could happen but was too little too late for our area? The scenario sounds a bit familiar from previous events in the past. So it doesn't seem all that wild to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 There is certainly still some volatility at this stage. State Collège went from 10" at 12z to less than 2 on HH GFS. One more proportional shift SE might do the trick. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: Kuchera looks good too. Lala lock it in. Such a small strip though. Weird run. Weaker smaller area of precip but more intense in a good spot for us. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: 24 hour change lol . Chin up heisy! We’re not out of the game yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I still think we're going to go warmer after 18z 4 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx Thoughts on this... I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work. Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones. The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it. So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain. This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario. 2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW. I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible. Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO. That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to. I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm. Thoughts? Funny you mention that because that’s pretty much what the GFS did and is a great way for many to score in this setup. Simplicity is best. A wall of moisture running into cold air with decent mid-level ascent focused over the central Mid Atlantic. These are some of our favorite type of events. They come in hot and slam for 8-12 hrs then scoot out. Typical caveats aside with the fall line and southeast being prone to changing over, but it would offer the opportunity for a period of heavy snowfall before any potential flip. Just one of the possible outcomes in this setup. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Looks like I’m gonna have another model analysis session tonight after this 18z gfs run. Am with the kiddos for now, but I’ll be popping in here to check on things 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lala lock it in. Such a small strip though. Weird run. Weaker smaller area of precip but more intense in a good spot for us. The GFS has been spitting out some weird precip field solutions. Color me skeptical, it seems confused with these wild jumps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx Thoughts on this... I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work. Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones. The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it. So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain. This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario. 2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW. I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible. Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO. That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to. I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm. Thoughts? Option 1 I would think is safer but with less upside. I know your moose hunting but I would gladly take a squirl , fox or anything in between. Edit: @psuhoffman can you explain why our qpf increased even with the system being weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 23 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'll buy a 5-8 inch paste job too. How about you BristowWx? You had me at 5-8 inch…I’d take half that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Chuck is upping his troll game. GFS is fine. 3-5 seems like a nice storm to break the ice for the season. Hopefully plenty more to come. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This will likely be the first real winter storm for the Valley since Jan. 16, 2022 when 8.5 inches fell. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 26 minutes ago, Heisy said: 24 hour change lol . Trend seems to be for all the green, yellow, and red spots to completely change positions? 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: There is certainly still some volatility at this stage. State Collège went from 10" at 12z to less than 2 on HH GFS. One more proportional shift SE might do the trick. I hope we get that so you get in on the action. You are doing a yeoman’s work this winter. And you’re not even Yeoman! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I hope we get that so you get in on the action. You are doing a yeoman’s work this winter. And you’re not even Yeoman! lol thanks. I'm good. If this winter goes as expected, the last 6 weeks or so of met winter should make most in this region happy. Otherwise, I chase. Kinda thinking about hanging out in Gettysburg this weekend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Trend seems to be for all the green, yellow, and red spots to completely change positions? I guess 2/06/10 is not the top analog anymore. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Lots of wobbling in the same general area. We are known to loose a storm for a few runs only to have it trend better within 72 hours I would say this one will be no different. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Lots of wobbling in the same general area. We are known to loose a storm for a few runs only to have it trend better within 72 hours I would say this one will be no different. Just by looking at this, it seems like the 18z gfs is depicting a completely different synoptic setup than any of the previous runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 That 18z gfs run sucked me back in. Def better output for normal nw areas except now it extends back all the way down 81 corridor. LLC looks to have had a slight win compared to previous two runs. EPS wasn’t horrid. This may still have legs. Sucker me in one more time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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