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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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20 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Heaviest snow of the day now.  That and freezing fog has reduced visibilities to less than 1/4 mile.  

North wind at 13 mph causing some slight blowing snow. 4” on the ground.

Heavy snow in Smithsburg.  Loud snow lol. 

Very low visibility 

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56 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Totally understand. A lot is perspective and relative senses. I endured a lot of rainless periods living in West TX and as nice as the days were, seeing everything dead was just awful. I will embrace precip in any form from now on. The pattern will be getting colder mid month moving forward. Hopefully we can track a decent event after it occurs. I still have positive hopes for the season. 

I totally get this.  Going to school and living in Fresno, CA was miserable.  I could not wait to move/work back east.

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2 hours ago, Ji said:


You’re wrong again. Take your experience and flush it and start to respect the modeling. You can’t out forecast the models with dated methods and tell pros they are wrong

His methods are fine but his stubbornness to incorporate them with more modern technology enhanced strategies is the issue. The best use both!  

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Euro was the best, but it wasn't good. All models were pretty bad

I disagree.  I saw several people commenting from 120 hours out that we were in trouble knowing what was likely the final 100 hours. The globals from range struggle with mid level warm layers. Blocking is the one exception when the southerly flow can be suppressed. But otherwise once we get inside 72-100 hours we ALWAYS discover the mid levels will warm more and the snow area shifts north.  So assuming you applied basic model adjustment 101 I feel like they did great. 

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Dry air finally being broken through up this way. Had about 3 hours of virga. Light snow and 30 degrees. Latest warning bumped totals down from 6-12 to 5-10 so we’ll see what happens. Quick moving system so I’ll believe it when I see it

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