January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?

[diatae]

Rain and three mocking pings of sleet on my rain jacket. Or maybe they were three heavier rains? Anyway, walking back from the mailbox and enjoying the snowy pics from the westerners on a quiet, slow Saturday. 

[WxUSAF]

My sister in Forest Hill, MD, sent a pic and they probably have ~0.5" on the deck.  

[katabatic]

@umdterps29 its the same here in MLP - about a 50/50 split. Heavy rates are trying to do their thing. At least its frozen, right.

[osfan24]

Snowing now but where is all the heavy precipitation.

[gunny23]

9 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Deep Creek- Just starting to go back to like a 50/50 snow sleet combo as the heavier rates move in. Really hoping some heavier stuff can come through and bring back the pure snow 

After a lull in Canaan then sleet, we are back to mostly all snow with just a little sleet.  Really coming down now

[WeatherShak]

At least two or 3 inches of powder




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[Jeff B]

In the Baltimore County u-shaped hole attm. Hovering at 31° with snow/sleet mix this morning.

[jlewis1111]

DC the new Atlanta... Just how it is. Been watching this forum all week. So much hype for what nothing today. Maybe end of month will see however winters just suck now

[Imgoinhungry]

Heaviest snowfall of the day right now. Just south east of frederick


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[WVsnowlover]

The localized precip hole over my area has finally filled in! Fingers crossed we can keep snow for long enough to squeeze out an inch or two.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, Jeff B said:

In the Baltimore County u-shaped hole attm. Hovering at 31° with snow/sleet mix this morning.

I'm off Wembly Rd and I have steady light snow despite zilch on radar.

[Chris78]

.75 so far

Temps holding steady at 31

[Ellinwood]

Finally got some decent DBZ overhead in Germantown, aaaand... it's all sleet.

[RDM]

36 and light rn here NW of Vienna - good luck to those to the NW....  

[DDweatherman]

   
   Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV
   Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 061647Z - 062145Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region
   over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across
   much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly
   across south-central PA.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude
   shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward.
   Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across
   the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within
   the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow
   is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the
   shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant
   surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected
   to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across
   central NC and southeast VA. 

   These factors will result in an area of strong low-level
   frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into
   central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD,
   and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing
   moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the
   next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around
   1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas
   experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding
   appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered
   around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the
   shortwave continues northeastward.

[WVsnowlover]

Aaaaannnd it's sleet/rain smh

[Terpeast]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

   
   Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV
   Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 061647Z - 062145Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region
   over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across
   much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly
   across south-central PA.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude
   shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward.
   Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across
   the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within
   the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow
   is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the
   shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant
   surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected
   to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across
   central NC and southeast VA. 

   These factors will result in an area of strong low-level
   frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into
   central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD,
   and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing
   moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the
   next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around
   1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas
   experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding
   appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered
   around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the
   shortwave continues northeastward.

I’m just inside that pink line on the SE. I think they’re being little too generous with that area

[WxUSAF]

Column temps were good enough for 4 hours. Just couldn’t get any precip rates here.

[Terpeast]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Column temps were good enough for 4 hours. Just couldn’t get any precip rates here.

Exactly. Our window of opportunity for accumulation is closing, if not already closed

[adelphi_sky]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

220/50 intersection in WV south of Cumberland.

 

Love driving through Cumberland. I love Maryland's geographical diversity.

[LP08]

Needed this radar 4 hours ago.  Rain in Arlington.

[Curlyq]

Snowing with approx 0.25-0.5 on the ground; holding steady at 30 degrees

[umdterps29]

Snow has really picked back up at the top of Wisp. These rates need to stick around to keep the sleet away

[WVclimo]

Picked up an inch in the past 45 minutes.  Still moderate snow.  1.6” on the snow board.

[Imgoinhungry]

Snow was short lived in frederick. Mostly sleet now.


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[umdterps29]

1 minute ago, umdterps29 said:

Snow has really picked back up at the top of Wisp. These rates need to stick around to keep the sleet away

Anddddd just like that it’s back to mostly sleet. Didn’t anticipate this much issue staying snow out here. Sad 

[WEATHER53]

17 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

DC the new Atlanta... Just how it is. Been watching this forum all week. So much hype for what nothing today. Maybe end of month will see however winters just suck now

We have a forecasting technique which has undergone very little improvement in 20 years. Imagine if all other sciences had done same 

[Mrs.J]

27 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s pretty wintry out there right now. Snow is sticking to everything here. Millvillewx mentioned the valley here can do a good job holding the cold in and that’s exactly what’s happening so far.

Yep traps all the cold in the winter and all the smog in the summer. 

[WVsnowlover]

2 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Picked up an inch in the past 45 minutes.  Still moderate snow.  1.6” on the snow board.

Wow that's awesome congrats! We got a mulch topper here in southern Jefferson County and are just rain with a few sleet pellets now.

[WVclimo]

Just now, WVsnowlover said:

Wow that's awesome congrats! We got a mulch topper here in southern Jefferson County and are just rain with a few sleet pellets now.

Been watching that mix line on the CC radar.  It’s approached my part of the county a few times but the wedge is holding tough here.  Hopefully it can strengthen if heavier precip comes your way this afternoon.