Buddy1987 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Are we rooting for an even earlier start time to this so thermals will cooperate more potentially or is it a moot point if southern stream is weak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Are we rooting for an even earlier start time to this so thermals will cooperate more potentially or is it a moot point if southern stream is weak? I don't think it matters at this point anymore. Maybe root for it to start at night after temps drop 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Weak low on ICON now as well.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 What sucked me in this time was that more than one global had a decent storm for multiple runs. I guess the globals just can't be relied on outside a few days as some of the experts pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: What sucked me in this time was that more than one global had a decent storm for multiple runs. I guess the globals just can't be relied on outside a few days as some of the experts pointed out. I don’t think your area is out of the game by any means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: What sucked me in this time was that more than one global had a decent storm for multiple runs. I guess the globals just can't be relied on outside a few days as some of the experts pointed out. Op runs at 4 days plus? Always going to be variable. As @dallen7908s posts show, even ensembles have only bought in for about 48 hours for the cities. IMO if the Thursday 0z runs show mostly/all rain for the metro corridor, then it’s pretty unlikely to bounce back to mostly snow. But this is a pretty standard mid-Atlantic winter storm…mixing issues, sharp gradient in snow amounts, elevation important, subtle factors could make a big sensible weather impact. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: 3rd and goal from the 15 at this point. Need a TD to take the lead At this point we're really looking for baby step progressions for overall synoptic setup as we move into the 100 hour window tonight - increased confluence in accordance with a stronger LP and less movement of the High to our North. To me, it all starts by looking at the energy interaction out West as the shortwave off the NW Pac moves in much faster the last few runs leading to a much flatter evolution of our SW. Just about every model has trended in this direction the past 12 hours - need the separation to increase here 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: What sucked me in this time was that more than one global had a decent storm for multiple runs. I guess the globals just can't be relied on outside a few days as some of the experts pointed out. And it happened so fast. I woke up pretty stoked on the worst day of work of the year….and the death blows were coming in fast…I was Glass Joe…down for the count. But hey I’m still breathing 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, WxUSAF said: Op runs at 4 days plus? Always going to be variable. As @dallen7908s posts show, even ensembles have only bought in for about 48 hours for the cities. IMO if the Thursday 0z runs show mostly/all rain for the metro corridor, then it’s pretty unlikely to bounce back to mostly snow. But this is a pretty standard mid-Atlantic winter storm…mixing issues, sharp gradient in snow amounts, elevation important, subtle factors could make a big sensible weather impact. But the intensity drop really is a downer....agree on the rain/ snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Alfoman said: At this point we're really looking for baby step progressions for overall synoptic setup as we move into the 100 hour window tonight - increased confluence in accordance with a stronger LP and less movement of the High to our North. To me, it all starts by looking at the energy interaction out West as the shortwave off the NW Pac moves in much faster the last few runs leading to a much flatter evolution of our SW. Just about every model has trended in this direction the past 12 hours - need the separation to increase here Basically need to see the separation again. Perhaps if we start heading in this direction at 18z there is a chance for recovery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, Weather Will said: But the intensity drop really is a downer....agree on the rain/ snow line. It’s like 2-5mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Ok makes sense. Hopefully we can wobble back or find another path to a mostly snow outcome. Still have time. All the energy is actually shifting to that trailing wave. That could work if the lead stj wave didn’t run off with all the moisture. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 @Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx Thoughts on this... I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work. Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones. The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it. So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain. This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario. 2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW. I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible. Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO. That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to. I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm. Thoughts? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18z GFS is a little better than the 12z when it comes to raw snow output, at least, looking at the early maps I can get. More/heavier precip doing some cooling work I think. Go boom or go bust 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 18z GFS is a little better than the 12z when it comes to raw snow output, at least, looking at the early maps I can get. It’s way weaker and a little bit better confluence/850 temps leading in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18z 12z 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I would take the 18z all day long. Odd output with that strip though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx Thoughts on this... I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work. Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones. The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it. So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain. This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario. 2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW. I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible. Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO. That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to. I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm. Thoughts? Maybe. If the trailing wave merges with the one we’re looking at… holds it back a bit. I guess it’s possible if the NS wave strengthens more and gets us a refresh of cold air. But can it be done in 4 days? If we had 6-7 days to make it happen, it’s possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx Thoughts on this... I've been thinking about the "new" curveball here... making the assumption that the trailing SW that has popped up and thrown a wrench in all this is real, its newer data and why would guidance just make that up, how can we still get this to work. Very minor adjustments in that trailing wave I don't think will do much and we are too close to get HUGE ones. The trailing wave is just simply the dominant one and the SW that was associated with our storm is washing out in response to the spacing and the new SW amplifying right behind it. So... I see 2 possible scenarios to get snow into DC/Baltimore. 1) Things trend a little colder ahead of this and the STJ wave continues to speed up and holds together just enough to produce a quick WAA thump before dry slot or rain. This is likely low end potential but I could see the cities getting a 1-3" snow if everything broke right on this scenario. 2) If we want a shot at something bigger the only way I can really see us trending back where we want is if the trend already underway continues and that trailing SW becomes even more dominant, the lead wave that we thought was THE storm continues to die out and eventually becomes just a frontrunner wave that does not take all the moisture off with it, and we get a secondary development centered on the dominant trailing SW. I was looking at the spacing and its not impossible. Unlikely yes but not impossible IMO. That trailing SW actually takes a pretty good track, like the original now washing out NS SW was supposed to. I think our best chance here would be if the trends were to continue and the trailing wave ends up being the storm. Thoughts? If the trailing wave becomes the storm would that push the height of the storm into Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 So far at 18z the ICON moved a little towards my option 2 but was stuck in between. The GFS went towards option 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Good trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z 12z I’ll buy at this point. A 5-8” storm is fine by me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 I think happy hour did what I suggested earlier and continued the weakening trend and more southerly primary enough to let cold air hang on. Boom. 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Maybe. If the trailing wave merges with the one we’re looking at… holds it back a bit. I guess it’s possible if the NS wave strengthens more and gets us a refresh of cold air. But can it be done in 4 days? If we had 6-7 days to make it happen, it’s possible. Yea that's the part I don't know we're getting kinda close to see those kinds of adjustments. My area up here can do pretty well with my option 1. 18z GFS is kinda ridiculous with that banding though, I'd bed anything its overdone, but I could see my area get a 6" snow from that scenario but just not sure that can work for more than a couple inches in the cities given the marginal temps. The danger in rooting for option 2 is if the whole thing gets stuck in between we risk nothing at all for the entire area. That would be how the whole thing falls apart. Maybe best to just cut our losses and root for the STJ to go it alone like the 18z GFS shows. Again, the GFS snow output with that is crazy but I could see a 3-6" snow NW of the cities from that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z 12z Like way better so perhaps 6 hour panic over? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I'll buy a 5-8 inch paste job too. How about you BristowWx? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z 12z Kuchera looks good too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Forgetting the thermals for a second, the improvement in QPF from 12 to 18z is notable. We are back over 1” region wide. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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