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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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Was at 29 when I went to bed at 0300 - 33 now.  Blah.  Had hopes for at least a dusting on the front end but per the norm around here the only color outside is brown.   When caveats started getting into the discussion a week ago, it reminded me of our motto for these parts "when everything has to be perfect to get SN, if one variable is out of whack our chances to score are significantly reduced".  Good luck to the NW crew, hope you score something.   

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1 minute ago, katabatic said:

Precip started in southwest Garrett County and after initially a minute or two of sleet, is primarily freezing rain. Temp also rose from 27.1 to 29.7 with the onset of precip (weird, I know). Hopefully the column cools. DP is 23 currently. 

Just wow...

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

of course HRRR 12z after shutting people down for the day 24hrs

image.png

 

Has areas to the west and north that's starting as sleet/freezing going over to Snow late morning and into the afternoon hours as heavier precip moves in. Before ending as a mix.

Hopefully it has a clue.

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OK, OK! I'll admit it! I did it. I cut and painted two new 2x2 measuring platforms to replace the two oldest that were starting to fall apart on Thursday. Sorry. 

EDIT- ob, 29.9/28.7 and freezing rain with a pinger or two once in a while at 8:30 am. 

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9 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Not sure what Stormy is looking at, but it was progged to begin as freezing rain/mix and flip to snow around 10:00 and then back to mixing around 12:00.  Hoping to cash in on a couple inches of slop during the ‘good’ period.
 

TWC sent Jim Cantore to Staunton so it must be happening!  Lol

eta: 30° and light freezing rain currently

Hello out west!  I'm well aware of what you say.  The HRRR brings the 850 freezing line to the west city limits of Staunton at 11 am, backs it up to Todd Lake at noon then Reddish Knob at 1 pm.

Good luck!

I'm reporting obs.  33.1 degrees w/ Lt.rain

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Just now, umdterps29 said:

Precip just started in Deep Creek as mostly sleet at 3,008ft. Some flakes mixed in but would love it if the snow takes over very quickly 

Just as i said that the snow has taken over as primary P type. Will be interesting to see how the day goes as rates pick up

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If it actually snows there. Sleet pellets nw of Winchester right now. We will see what happens when heavier stuff comes in. But if I was gonna chase I would go up into central PA.

I guess I meant perfect as in beautiful views, amazing food, great beer, easy to drive to, comfortable lodging, charming town full of shops and restaurants you can walk to. The snow is the wildcard lol. I do think we will see snow with better rates but this is definitely a discouraging start.

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What a shocking drive over to my hiking group hike for the day - 7.5 mile planned hike north of 70 off route 29.

was 28 when I left monkton - good.

was up to 31 by fairgrounds exit off 83 - eh

was at 32 where beltway and 83 meet - oh no

up to frickin’ 34 on beltway around reisterstown rd and held that with some rain over to 70- YIKES

temp dropped a bit on final set of turns to the trailhead - 31 over here. Better?

 

I was REALLY hoping that some of this walk would be in falling snow. I guess I can still hope i suppose.

Disheartening start to things tho.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If it actually snows there. Sleet pellets nw of Winchester right now. We will see what happens when heavier stuff comes in. But if I was gonna chase I would go up into central PA.

This forecast has been a mess from the get-go. All kinds of crap happening upstairs. Speaking of chasing, booked a flight to Chicago Thursday. GFS is, shall we say, interesting (and the Euro too but not quite as extreme) so basing a chase there to see what kind of trouble I can get into over the MLK weekend. Hopefully it's better than this lol.

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10 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Precip started in southwest Garrett County and after initially a minute or two of sleet, is primarily freezing rain. Temp also rose from 27.1 to 29.7 with the onset of precip (weird, I know). Hopefully the column cools. DP is 23 currently. 

Appreciate the update... We were thinking of driving back up today. I'm hoping the main roads will be treated.

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My location does exceptionally well during nights with effective radiational cooling.  Sheltered river valley spot surrounded by farms and orchards.

Usually holds onto the cold at the surface as well in these types of events.  Until winds begin to mix everything.  

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