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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


What are you gonna do with your 0”? I think I’m gonna watch the Steelers and Ravens play

Not a bad day!

I’ll watch FA Cup soccer in the morning. I’ll also rest to get over this cold and then take my daughter out for a birthday dinner!

Might steer clear of any obs thread tomorrow, though!

Edit: 29 degrees - right on my forecast low.

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1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

Temps steady in Tenleytown (~380ft) at around 34F for the past few hours.  34/35 at DCA.

I know what you're referencing in the temp being around 34 to 35 at DCA, but if this was a temp/dp...I would still believe you because if anyone can defy the laws of thermodynamics, it's DCA

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I'm between Baltimore and Towson and it's currently 25.3 ºF in my front yard supposedly. The forecast low was for 29 ºF. My yard tends to run a little cool though not quite that much ... I would be happy if we had a surprise inch of snow even if it all melts away shortly after.

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8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I know what you're referencing in the temp being around 34 to 35 at DCA, but if this was a temp/dp...I would still believe you because if anyone can defy the laws of thermodynamics, it's DCA

lol so true.

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Updated discussion from LWX

 

000
FXUS61 KLWX 060241
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
941 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifts off the Delmarva coast this evening while an
area of low pressure tracks northeast from the Gulf Coast heading
into Saturday. This storm system will bring a widespread wintry mix
of precipitation to the region Saturday into Sunday morning. High
pressure briefly returns Monday before another potent area of low
pressure crosses the region Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Broad troughing extends from Iowa southward toward the Gulf
Coast this evening, with a prominent shortwave trough located
within the base of the larger trough over eastern Texas. This
shortwave will rapidly lift northeastward overnight, reaching
the Tennessee Valley by daybreak. High clouds have overspread
the majority of the area this evening, well in advance of the
system approaching from the southwest. Clouds will continue to
thicken and lower over the course of the night. Precipitation
may break out just prior to daybreak in the central Shenandoah
Valley/central Virginia Piedmont as stronger large scale
ascent/low-level warm advection moves in from the southwest.
00z hi- res guidance indicates that much of this precipitation
may initially fall in the form of freezing rain across the
central Shenandoah Valley/central Virginia Piedmont. Winter
weather headlines start in those locations at 4 AM. Further
north and east, the majority of the forecast area should
experience dry conditions overnight. Lows will be in the 20s for
most, with lower 30s in downtown DC and Baltimore.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The southern stream jet intensifies from the Southern Plains toward
the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A series of strong upper troughs will
traverse along the southern stream jet, as an associated surface low
pressure develops over the Deep South and quickly progresses
northeast. This low intensifies as it reaches southeast VA Saturday,
then moves over the Delmarva Saturday night.

Precipitation is expected to overspread the area starting early
Saturday morning, mostly in the form of snow, with sleet and
freezing rain mixing in at times, especially for portions of
the central Shenandoah Valley, central Virginia Piedmont and
central Blue Ridge. For areas right along and east of I-95 any
snow is not expected to stick beyond a coating on the
grass/elevated surfaces where precip quickly turns to a cold
rain by mid morning.

As the morning progresses the 850mb temps warm above freezing as
strong WAA pushes a nose of moderated/warmer marine air atop the
cold air at the surface. The warm nose will vary in temperature
across the area, which is going to result in a wintry mix of rain,
freezing rain, and sleet, especially along/east of I-81. Cold air is
likely to hang around the longest west of the Blue Ridge and north
of US-48 where primary p-type through the event is snow. Even in the
areas where snow totals are higher, there is concern that sleet
and/or a wintry mix could bring down overall snow totals. The
rain/snow line will push inland through the afternoon, likely
reaching just east of the Blue Ridge. Some models indicate there is
a potential for precip to revert back to freezing rain as night
falls and temperatures drop, roughly a line from Winchester to
Dulles north toward the PA border. Uncertainties remain on
exact snow and ice amounts. Regardless, this winter storm is
going to produce hazardous conditions due to a mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain.

Ice accretion amounts up to two tenths of an inch are possible in
parts of the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central VA, and up
to around one-quarter inch along the Central Blue Ridge, with a
trace up to a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible elsewhere
in the Warning/Advisory areas. Snow/sleet amounts will vary,
though looking at 4-7" for western Maryland and much of the
eastern West Virginia Panhandle. A tight gradient of 1-3" likely
sets up near the I-81 corridor and cutting east through
Frederick MD and Carroll. East of the gradient and along the
I-95 corridor snow/sleet amounts between a trace to a couple
tenths of an inch.

The surface low pressure will quickly move offshore into the
Atlantic on Sunday. Aloft, an elongated shortwave trough will remain
atop the region, helping to produce upslope mountain snow showers.
An additional few inches of snow is possible along/west of the
Allegheny Front through Sunday night. Some light snow showers
or flurries could spill east of the mountains during the day.
Brisk WNW winds gusting to 20mph possible in the afternoon as
highs reach the low to mid 40s.
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5 minutes ago, Amped said:

RGEM pretty much matches it's 18z run except for a snow hole near York PA.  NAM could never dream of being that consistent.

It is comically stubborn. I love that it initializes 3-5F warmer than the 18Z run at hour 0 and then INSTANTLY jumps to its old forecast at hour 1. "Nah, I was definitely right before"

1917829654_ScreenShot2024-01-05at10_05_00PM.thumb.jpg.fb95ea1124e244a55e9b43434d514c44.jpg

1129496669_ScreenShot2024-01-05at10_05_11PM.thumb.jpg.6aa6317246f19427ce3bc882fbd09ff7.jpg

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1 hour ago, RIC_WX said:

26/16 DCL, 2595’.  The valleys on the ride in this evening were 19-23 on the car thermometer.  
 

The woodstove is ripping now too

Wish we were there this weekend. Enjoy it with the upslope too. 28 at 2800’ but sadly not that here at 150’. 

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