Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, WVclimo said: It’s now modeled to be moving a lot faster, also reducing QPF potential. Barely an 8-10 hour storm now vs what was showing the past couple of days. I noticed a trend where strorms look stronger at longer leads and then become weaker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Basically has become a 10-12 hour event. When we were getting those bigger snow totals the north movement of the storm stops and it pulled away slowly towards the east . PA and north gets a longer storm now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I mentioned this earlier, but I wonder if there’s another path where this thing gets a little weaker with time and hence a farther south track. That could also keep our column colder. Right now may be a “worst of both worlds” scenario. Dunno, just speculating. The 12z GFS run yesterday was further south and colder. The low was 990 mb as it came off the NC coast. That run fringed PSU. Ofc that NS energy was in a good spot on that run w/more confluence, thus a colder and somewhat suppressive outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We are not safe up here. This could easily become an interior and New England event. We don’t have nearly the wiggle room we need. I was hopeful when things were trending colder 24 hours ago but we needed that trend to continue. Yes it could reverse but the trend towards a less amped system is concerning. But it very well could continue. Look at the changes in just the last 24 hours. We could easily be mostly rain here too by the time it gets here. Not saying we will but I don’t feel safe in the least. Seen this setup way too many times. And so has everyone else. That’s why there are so many posts with declarative statements no one really means. To try to convince ourselves this time will be different lol. Eventually one will be different. But I never feel confident at this range no matter what unless everything is truly perfect. This setup isn’t. 100 agree. Need to stop the bleeding. We're another model cycle or 2 away from being an interior storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The storm is still 4 days and ~16 model cycles until onset. The final solution isn’t going to be exactly like any of the 12z runs today (for better or worse) so no reason to punt this yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 21 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: its just the new vort in the SW/Central US that digs and fucks up everything, not only induces height rises and make the low go north but also flattens out the storm and makes it weak, not as simple as "NW of low snows" anymore sadly good news is this energy is over the aleutians rn, i would give it some time before canceling this but trends are unfavorable rn ill admit I’m with you. It’s that piece behind our sw that’s causing this. As you said that piece is over the North Pacific. I expect that’s gonna change in future runs. Not necessarily better though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m with you. It’s that piece behind our sw that’s causing this. As you said that piece is over the North Pacific. I expect that’s gonna change in future runs. Not necessarily better though. that completely changes the setup sadly, we also see the dual jet signature go away on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is right about the time, even in our best historic storms, that you start to see some solutions that aren’t favorable. The big storms of course correct back to the good solutions. Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 so far the storm is matching up with the NWS experimental products from the end of last week that showed areas west of the Blue Ridge getting the bulk of the snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I smelled a rat 24 hours ago when I said the GEM was beginning to focus on what the EURO was only sniffing at. Now, the GFS, GEM aand ECM all sense potential significant flaws with the idea of a major winter storm. Thermals are a problem and this system seems to be losing the ability to really crank! The GFS has cut the qp in half for my area and dropped the snow from 14 to 5" in one run. The ECM drops from 12 to 8 ", but the GEM increases from 2 - 8". This can still be a beast if the coastal bombs over Va. Beach and additional cold air is wrapped in from the north. I believe the models will hone in on a solution by Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS holds generally if anyone cares 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: EPS holds generally if anyone cares holds from what the 00z? or it agrees with the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 EPS isn’t as bad as I expected 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: EPS holds generally if anyone cares Vs 0z or 6z? I did a quick comparison vs 0z using the maps on pivotal. Seems like it’s the general “all features are a bit weaker and hence warmer”, but not a total ratter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, WxUSAF said: Vs 0z or 6z? I did a quick comparison vs 0z using the maps on pivotal. Seems like it’s the general “all features are a bit weaker and hence warmer”, but not a total ratter. It held from 6z it’s worse than 0z. Euro caught into this change at 6z. Gfs at 12z. Ggem is off on a tangent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dang pretty much all rain for the metros this run. Ah well, if this one doesn't work out, at least the upcoming pattern looks more promising! Overall setup at macro is absolutely breathtaking. Lots of fun tracking ahead, possibly into March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It held from 6z it’s worse than 0z. Euro caught into this change at 6z. Gfs at 12z. Ggem is off on a tangent. Ok makes sense. Hopefully we can wobble back or find another path to a mostly snow outcome. Still have time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 z EPS has 31, 69 for 4,1 inch chances for DC 6 z EPS had 35, 65 for 4,1 inch chances for DC 12 z EPS has 92, 55 for 4,1 inch chances for Germantown 6z EPS had 78, 49 for 4,1 inch changes for Germantown 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Soon we will get to watch the system evolving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It held from 6z it’s worse than 0z. Euro caught into this change at 6z. Gfs at 12z. Ggem is off on a tangent. Saw some eps maps in the other subforums and it looks decent? Maybe a tick better than 6z? Seems like that really high end totals are unlikely due to faster motion. But advisory to warning level for many very much on the table. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: much better this run Hell of a gradient! You could drive from Manassas along Rt 28 to Rt 7 and end up spinnin' your wheels from a 10-12 accumulation near Dulles and on NW. I could probably enjoy a leisurely jebwalk while marveling at the deepening snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Saw some eps maps in the other subforums and it looks decent? Maybe a tick better than 6z? Seems like that really high end totals are unlikely due to faster motion. But advisory to warning level for many very much on the table. little better (mountains) or a little worse (close metro) depending where you are Mean Median 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 im suprised, some of the indies have extremely large hits, im interested to see what their handling of the SW US shortwave is and how everything gets affected by it wish there was a way to do so but it appears not sadly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: little better (mountains) or a little worse (close metro) depending where you are Mean Median Do you mind posting the 6z for comparison please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Do you mind posting the 6z for comparison please Mean Median 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 It’s rare that my yard gets a 6” snowfall and DC gets shutout in the same storm. Other than a couple of events in late March, and mid-November 2018, may have to go back to December 2012 to find such an event in the winter. Gotta believe if it snows that much here, the Metros get into some of it also. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Back to where we were on the 31st, but still better than on the 30th. Do you have the same charts for IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I figure we can use some good vibes but had to dig pretty deep to find some … that said (hear me out) extrapolating the NAM looks like a good run for us with more confluence. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I figure we can use some good vibes but had to dig pretty deep to find some … that said (hear me out) extrapolating the NAM looks like a good run for us with more confluence. Nevermind it caved lmao I tried 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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