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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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3 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

It’s now modeled to be moving a lot faster, also reducing QPF potential.  Barely an 8-10 hour storm now vs what was showing the past couple of days.

I noticed a trend where strorms look stronger at longer leads and then become weaker 

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3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Basically has become a 10-12 hour event.

When we were getting those bigger snow totals the north movement of the storm stops and it pulled away slowly towards the east . 

PA and north gets a longer storm now. 

 

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mentioned this earlier, but I wonder if there’s another path where this thing gets a little weaker with time and hence a farther south track. That could also keep our column colder. Right now may be a “worst of both worlds” scenario. Dunno, just speculating.

The 12z GFS run yesterday was further south and colder. The low was 990 mb as it came off the NC coast. That run fringed PSU. Ofc that NS energy was in a good spot on that run w/more confluence, thus a colder and somewhat suppressive outcome. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We are not safe up here. This could easily become an interior and New England event.  We don’t have nearly the wiggle room we need.  I was hopeful when things were trending colder 24 hours ago but we needed that trend to continue. Yes it could reverse but the trend towards a less amped system is concerning. But it very well could continue. Look at the changes in just the last 24 hours. We could easily be mostly rain here too by the time it gets here. Not saying we will but I don’t feel safe in the least. Seen this setup way too many times. And so has everyone else. That’s why there are so many posts with declarative statements no one really means. To try to convince ourselves this time will be different lol. Eventually one will be different. But I never feel confident at this range no matter what unless everything is truly perfect. This setup isn’t. 

100 agree.

Need to stop the bleeding. We're another model  cycle or 2 away from being an interior storm.

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21 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

its just the new vort in the SW/Central US that digs and fucks up everything, not only induces height rises and make the low go north but also flattens out the storm and makes it weak, not as simple as "NW of low snows" anymore sadly

good news is this energy is over the aleutians rn, i would give it some time before canceling this but trends are unfavorable rn ill admit

I’m with you. It’s that piece behind our sw that’s causing this. As you said that piece is over the North Pacific. I expect that’s gonna change in future runs. Not necessarily better though.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m with you. It’s that piece behind our sw that’s causing this. As you said that piece is over the North Pacific. I expect that’s gonna change in future runs. Not necessarily better though.

that completely changes the setup sadly, we also see the dual jet signature go away on euro

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5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is right about the time, even in our best historic storms, that you start to see some solutions that aren’t favorable. The big storms of course correct back to the good solutions. 

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I smelled a rat 24 hours ago when I said the GEM was beginning to focus on what the EURO was only sniffing at.

Now, the GFS, GEM aand ECM all sense potential significant flaws with the idea of a major winter storm. Thermals are a problem and this system seems to be losing the ability to really crank! The GFS has cut the qp in half for my area and dropped the snow from 14 to 5" in one run. The ECM drops from 12 to 8 ", but the GEM increases from 2 - 8". 

This can still be a beast if the coastal bombs over Va. Beach and additional cold air is wrapped in from the north.

 I believe the models will hone in on a solution by Thursday afternoon.

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2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

EPS holds generally if anyone cares

Vs 0z or 6z? I did a quick comparison vs 0z using the maps on pivotal. Seems like it’s the general “all features are a bit weaker and hence warmer”, but not a total ratter.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Vs 0z or 6z? I did a quick comparison vs 0z using the maps on pivotal. Seems like it’s the general “all features are a bit weaker and hence warmer”, but not a total ratter.

It held from 6z it’s worse than 0z. Euro caught into this change at 6z. Gfs at 12z. Ggem is off on a tangent. 

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang pretty much all rain for the metros this run. Ah well, if this one doesn't work out, at least the upcoming pattern looks more promising!

Overall setup at macro is absolutely breathtaking. Lots of fun tracking ahead, possibly into March.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It held from 6z it’s worse than 0z. Euro caught into this change at 6z. Gfs at 12z. Ggem is off on a tangent. 

Ok makes sense. Hopefully we can wobble back or find another path to a mostly snow outcome. Still have time. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It held from 6z it’s worse than 0z. Euro caught into this change at 6z. Gfs at 12z. Ggem is off on a tangent. 

Saw some eps maps in the other subforums and it looks decent? Maybe a tick better than 6z? Seems like that really high end totals are unlikely due to faster motion. But advisory to warning level for many very much on the table. 

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3 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png
much better this run 

Hell of a gradient! You could drive from Manassas along Rt 28 to Rt 7 and end up spinnin' your wheels from a 10-12 accumulation near Dulles and on NW. I could probably enjoy a leisurely jebwalk while marveling at the deepening snow. 

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Saw some eps maps in the other subforums and it looks decent? Maybe a tick better than 6z? Seems like that really high end totals are unlikely due to faster motion. But advisory to warning level for many very much on the table. 

little better (mountains) or a little worse (close metro) depending where you are 

Mean

1704693600-CNAgfHRz37Q.png

Median

1704693600-3bx0npNplAw.png

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It’s rare that my yard gets a 6” snowfall and DC gets shutout in the same storm.  Other than a couple of events in late March, and mid-November 2018, may have to go back to December 2012 to find such an event in the winter.  Gotta believe if it snows that much here, the Metros get into some of it also.

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16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I figure we can use some good vibes but had to dig pretty deep to find some … that said (hear me out) extrapolating the NAM looks like a good run for us with more confluence.

Nevermind it caved lmao I tried 

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